There are plenty of reasons to short this market, but on CNBC's Fast Money the pros say don't do it. We're probably going higher.
That's not to suggest they dismiss the growing number of negative catalysts in the market, they don't. And the negatives seem to be increasing. Just look at what happened on Thursday:
- U.S. crude futures slipped below $80 a barrel for the first time since October.
- Goldman Sachs said it's S&P target was 1,285, about a 5% decline from current levels.
- German analyst and investor morale sank in June at its fastest rate since October 1998.
But despite all these very bearish influences the traders believe that by the end of the month, the S&P (^GSPC) will probably be higher than where it is now.
Ironically the Moody's bank downgrades released after the bell may be a bullish catalyst.
Although the downgrades should call into question long-term profits and prospects of the banks downgraded, the Fast gang doesn't believe the Street will see it that way. They say the Street will view the downgrades as having little material impact on the ability of the firms to do business.
History would confirm the thesis. "The last time we saw downgrades in banks we had a rally," reminds Fast trader Guy Adami, managing director of stockMONSTER.com.
Adding to the bullish argument, Morgan Stanley's (MS) downgrade was not as severe as the Street expected. That alone should generate buying on Friday. (The stock popped in the after market on Thursday.)
Also, technical analysis is bullish.
Guy Adami points to the S&Ps closing level 1325 - a key Fibonacci level - a level that should generate support.
That may sound a little wonky- except something similar happened earlier in the week.
On Wednesday, the market closed at another Fibonacci level, one that should and did generate resistance. "On Wednesday the market closed at 1363, the 61.8% retracement of the April high of 1422 and the June low and 1266," Adami says.
The takeaway is that the market is trading very technically and the charts suggest a bounce is more likely than not.
But wait, there's even more reasons to rally - window dressing. Next week is end of month and end of quarter.
"By next Friday, I expect to see some buying as well as some asset re-allocation as money managers close the books on June and Q2," says Karen Finerman,president of Metropolitan Capital. By the end of the month, we rally."
Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie
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Trader disclosure: On June 21, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Guy Adami is long C; Guy Adami is long GS; Guy Adami is long INTC; Guy Adami is long AGU; Guy Adami is long MSFT; Guy Adami is long NUE; Guy Adami is long BTU; Karen Finerman is long AAPL; Karen Finerman is long BAC; Karen Finerman is long JPM; Karen Finerman is long WMT; Karen Finerman is long TGT; Karen Finerman is long MSFT; Karen Finerman is long M; Karen Finerman is short SPY; Karen Finerman is short IWM; Karen Finerman is short MDY; Tim Seymour is long BAC; Tim Seymour is long INTC; Tim Seymour is long SBUX
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