Retailers Don't Miss a Beat on Earnings

TheStreet.com

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I began to profile the earnings from selected retailers back on Feb. 19 in 11 Stocks Reporting Earnings this Week, where four are stocks in the retail-wholesale sector.

This week, I continued this coverage with Retailers Headline This Week's Earnings, where all seven stocks are in the retail-wholesale sector.

Overall 10 of the 11 stocks beat their EPS estimates, which is quite surprising considering the continued weak readings for consumer sentiment.

At www.ValuEngine.com, we show that 60.0% of all stocks are overvalued, with 15 of 16 sectors overvalued, nine by double-digit percentages, including the retail-wholesale sector.

A benchmark ETF that includes many of the retailers profiled today is the iShares DJ US Consumer Services Sector Index Fund IYC ($93.04), which remains below its multi-year high at $93.85, set on Feb. 13, 2013.

The 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) are $92.62 and $90.55 respectively, with my semiannual risky level at $95.48.

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Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters



Reading the Table

OV / UN Valued: The stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-Engine" rating is a Strong Sell, a "2-Engine" rating is a Sell, a "3-Engine" rating is a Hold, a "4-Engine" rating is a Buy and a "5-Engine" rating is a Strong Buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a Red number declined by that percentage over the last twelve months. Stocks with a Black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a Red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next twelve months. Stocks with a Black number in the Table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next twelve months.

Twelve month trailing P/E ratios.

Here are my updated "buy and trade" parameters and my earnings scorecard:

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF ($46.40) beat EPS estimates by 28 cents earning $2.21 per share on Feb. 22, but the stock traded down to $44.35 on Feb. 26, below its February value level at $46.97. ANF still has a buy rating with a negative weekly chart profile with the five-week MMA at $48.00. The 200-week SMA held at $45.04. My quarterly value level is $42.29 with weekly risky level at $52.51.

Dillards DDS ($79.01) missed earnings estimates by three cents, earning an EPS of $2.87 on Feb. 25. The stock gapped below my quarterly value level, now a risky level at $83.66. Weakness held its 200-day SMA at $75.82. DDS still has a buy rating and the weekly chart shifts to negative with a close on Friday below the five-week modified moving average (MMA) at $83.53. My semiannual value level lags at $62.99.



Dollar Tree DLTR ($45.39) beat EPS estimates by two cents, earning $1.01 per share on Feb. 27. The stock gapped higher to $46.71 then dipped to its 200-day SMA at $45.59. The high was shy of my semiannual risky level at $47.35. DLTR still has a buy rating with a positive weekly chart profile and the five-week MMA at $41.60. My weekly value level is $41.15 with my semiannual risky level at $47.35.

Home Depot HD ($68.06) beat EPS estimates by three cents, earning 67 cents per share on Feb. 26. The stock traded down to $63.82 on Monday as the Dow Industrial Average plunged 216 points. The 50-day SMA at $64.67 thus provided a "buy and trade" opportunity pre-earnings. Wednesday's high was a new multi-year high at $68.28. HD still has a buy rating with an overbought weekly chart and the five-week MMA at $66.11. My quarterly value level is $61.73 with a weekly risky level at $71.16.

Nordstrom JWN ($53.90) beat EPS estimates by a six cents, earning $1.50 per share on Feb. 21. Even with this beat, the stock traded down to $52.44 into Feb. 27, and then returned to its 200-day SMA at $53.85 yesterday. JWN still has a buy rating and its weekly chart profile stays neutral on a weekly close below its five-week MMA at $54.62. My semiannual value level lags at $46.41 with a quarterly risky level at $58.69.

Macy's M ($40.58) beat EPS estimates by seven cents, earning $2.05 per share on Feb. 26. The stock traded up to $40.90 on Feb. 27 with the stock above this week's pivot at $40.13 but shy of my quarterly risky level at $41.75. Macy's still has a buy rating with a positive weekly chart profile and the five-week MMA at $39.26. My monthly value level is $38.16 with the quarterly risky level at $41.75.

PriceLine.com PCLN ($695.91) beat EPS estimates by 24 cents, earning $6.41 per share on Feb. 26. The stock traded up to $712.50 well shy of my quarterly risky level at $750.99. PCLN still has a buy rating with a neutral weekly chart profile and the five-week MMA at $681.91. My monthly value level is $658.55 with the quarterly risky level at $750.99.

Saks SKS ($11.35) beat EPS estimates by two cents, earning 17 cents per share on Feb. 26. The stock traded down to its 50-day SMA at $10.83 then rebounded towards my monthly pivot at $11.48. SKS is the only hold-rated stock in today's table, and has a positive weekly chart given a close on Friday above the five-week MMA at $11.01. My quarterly value level is $10.32 with a semiannual risky level at $13.81.

Target TGT ($63.12) beat EPS estimates by 18 cents, earning $1.65 per share on Feb. 27. The stock dipped to $61.68 on weak guidance returning to this week's pivot at $62.48 then traded up to $63.75. TGT still has a buy rating with a positive weekly chart profile and the five-week MMA at $62.14. My annual value level is $53.54 with my annual pivot at $65.45 and semiannual risky level at $70.31.



TJX Companies TJX ($44.75) beat EPS estimates by one cent, earning 82 cents per share on Feb. 27. The stock dipped to $43.43 holding its 200-day SMA at $43.71, then rebounded to $44.86 versus my annual pivot at $45.75. TJX still has a buy rating with an overbought weekly chart profile and the five-week MMA at $44.54. My semiannual value level is $35.77, with an annual pivot at $45.75 and weekly risky level at $47.90.

Wal-Mart WMT ($71.66) beat EPS estimates by ten cents at $1.67 per share on Feb. 21. The stock traded around my quarterly pivot at $70.08, then rallied to this week's risky level at $71.94. WMT still has a buy rating with a positive weekly chart profile and the five-week MMA at $70.34. My semiannual value level is $60.16 with my quarterly pivot at $70.08 and monthly risky level at $77.67.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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