Rising Relative Strength for Big Brazil ETF

ETF Trends

Scores of emerging markets exchange traded funds joined the new 52-week high club on Tuesday, including marquee names such as the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) .

Overall, nearly 110 ETFs made new 52-week highs on Tuesday , a group that included just five single-country funds. One of those five was the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) , extending its run of superiority relative to U.S. stocks and broader emerging markets benchmarks. [Rousseff Loses Ground, EWZ Gains Ground]

EWZ gained nearly 1.2% Tuesday to close at $51.68. The largest Brazil ETF has not closed above $52 since late May 2013. A look at the ETF’s relative strength indicates that $52 and perhaps much higher are foregone conclusions.

“EWZ has been perking up vs. the S&P 500 as of late. EWZ is breaking out of a bullish triangle when plotted compared to the S&P 500. This is a bullish development from a chart perspective,” according to Captain John Charts.

Relative strength is a critical technical indicator “that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset,” according to Investopedia.

Translation: With EWZ’s relative strength against the S&P 500 bursting through resistance, new highs for the Brazil ETF could be seen and seen soon. If EWZ’s relative strength against the benchmark U.S. index returns to the October 2013 highs, that could mean a gain of about 9% for the ETF.

Fundamental factors are helping. Despite to two resounding defeats to conclude the 2014 World Cup, which Brazil hosted, EWZ is higher by nearly 8% this month as traders continue to price in defeat for President Dilam Rousseff in October’s national elections. [Political Party for Brazil ETFs]

In a poll conducted by Datafolha, 36% of those surveyed said they would vote for Rousseff, down from 38% earlier this month, reported Rogerio Jelmayer for the Wall Street Journal last Friday.

Since the start of July, Petrobras (PBR) is up nearly 21%, Vale (VALE) is higher by 7% and Itau Unibanco (ITUB) is up 10.6%. Various securities from those companies combine for nearly 29% of EWZ’s weight.

EWZ vs. S&P 500 Relative Strength

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Chart Courtesy: Captain John Charts

Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of EEM.

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