Ron Insana On Friday's Jobs Report: 'I Am Comfortable With The 245,000 Consensus'
Speaking to Benzinga ahead of the Friday jobs report, Insana’s Market Intelligence Author Ron Insana is comfortable with the Wall Street consensus for the Friday jobs report of 245,000 jobs created in December.
He pointed out that the jobs sector has seen consistent improvement in sectors like hospitality and retail, and he expects this new data to show it for energy and manufacturing, as well.
But he warned that those numbers might start to change going forward because of the plummet in oil prices. He pointed out that United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) already announced it’s idling a plant with more than 600 workers based on oil prices.
Related Link: Economist Dr. Thomas Simpson Sees New Payroll Employment Between 225,000-250,000 For December
“As we get into the beginning of the year, we might see the negative impact of falling oil prices on the energy industry instead of the consumer impact,” he said.
But Insana noted that the number coming in outside of the consensus may not have an impact, adding that the rally in the stock market over the past two days has wiped out losses from the prior three days.
A blowout in the employment number could cause the bond market to have a five- or 10-basis point reaction, Insana said, but it would be temporary.
“If the bond market were to blow out on the upside, you’re going to see a selloff in bonds, but you’ll see a rally in stocks,” he said.
Related Link: Morningstar Economist Expects 150,000-200,000 New Jobs For December
Insana also mentioned that November’s jobs number may be revised, as each one before that has been. But because the number was so high, he would be shocked if it was revised significantly upward.
U.S. Steel traded about 2 percent higher in Thursday's trading session. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) were both up, as well.
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