NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Investors who throw their nets into the market to fish for value, should pass on Salesforce
While Salesforce has done a remarkable job building itself into a dominant name in the software-as-a-service market, concerns about profitability and poor margin leverage remain. That's especially evident when compared to rivals Oracle
What's more, with a forward P/E of 67, which is more than six times that of both Oracle and IBM, investors want to know what they're going to get for their money. Shares were falling 4.9% in mid-day trading on Monday to $40.27. Salesforce has slipped 3.5% this year compared to a 14% gain for the S&P 500 and a 13.5% advance for the Nasdaq Composite Index.
It's beginning to look as if Salesforce's top line growth, which has been impressive, is no longer the selling tool that it used to be for those looking to buy the stock.
OK Start to the Fiscal Year
For any other company, I would be happy with the results that Salesforce produced. On balance, though, this company is still generating gaudy growth numbers, including 28% and 29% surges in revenue and subscription revenue this quarter, respectively. The problem is, good growth (top line) numbers haven't trickled to the bottom line, which is what killed the dot-com era.
What's more, this is a story about performance relative to expectations. To that end, I wasn't particularly impressed with numbers that arrived as expected. This is even though professional services and other revenue totaled $50 million and grew 25% year-over-year. After all, with a forward P/E that presumes excellence, it will take more than meeting the Street's long-term growth expectations to command respect.
Management also spoke favorably about its "billings" or "unbilled deferred revenue." These represent future billings under the company's subscription agreements that have not been invoiced. In other words, "billings" represents revenue that is contracted, but not yet invoiced and is off the balance sheet. This is an important metric in the software services/cloud subscription model that gauges the company's ability to generate recurring revenue.
In the quarter, billings grew 33% to $1.67 billion. While this number is indeed impressive and speaks to Salesforce's strong market-share growth, investors have to remember that this figure is not always "direct," since it includes existing customer renewals and longer invoice durations. Therefore, it doesn't reflect the company's organic billings growth.
Profitability Still a Question MarkAgain in this quarter, the bottom line lagged the top line. And it doesn't appear as if management cares a heck of a whole lot about shoring up this aspect of the business. The company posted a GAAP net loss per share of 12 cents. And on a non-GAAP basis, which includes the effect of $115 million in stock-based compensation, the company earned 10 cents per share.
As has been the case for some time, margins weren't any better, as the company shed 160 basis points year over year in non-GAAP gross margins. Likewise, operating margins were below Street estimates by roughly 70 basis points and down 1% year over year. While I've always wanted to like this company, the operating-margin performance, which has suffered due to Salesforce's aggressive growth plans, gnaws at me in ways reminiscent of the dot-com era.
Along similar lines, the fact that the company insists on paying its executives via stock-based compensation, continues to eat into Salesforce's profitability. Granted, it's not unusual for growth companies to adopt this form of compensation. But it's not 1998, either-- although the company's name fits perfectly in that era. At some point, investors need to demand for better bottom line performance.
Fending Off the Competition
Although Salesforce enjoys a good chunk of the SaaS and cloud market today, rivals are not letting off the pedal. Aside from IBM and Oracle, names such as Red Hat
Microsoft will have an advantage from the standpoint that customers will resist the urge to jump on a different platform, if Microsoft can sell the benefits of seamless Saas/cloud integration with Windows and Office. Salesforce will eventually find that it has to spend more on sales and marketing, plus other acquisitions, in order to preserve the market share that it currently has. This only adds more margin pressure on an already feeble situation.
Without question, Salesforce.com has to improve its deficits in profitability, if it truly wants to keep the bears in hibernation. As "the cloud" and "big data" markets become more defined, this is only going to heighten the demands on Salesforce.com to perform. Unfortunately, performance now must include the bottom line as the market seems no longer impressed with the company's revenue growth. Accordingly, the stock remains expensive and absent better margin leverage, it doesn't make sense to own it here.
At the time of publication, the author held no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
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