The USDJPY has been on fire since last Wednesday, racking up over 300-pips in less than a week all thanks to the Fed’s hawkish policy shift on June 19. Boosted by higher US Treasury yields, the US Dollar has outperformed the rest of the majors covered by DailyFX Research quite easily, with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) only down -0.22% in June now, after being down by as much as -2.73% on June 13.
The integral part of the stronger USDOLLAR has been the explosive USDJPY, which isn’t a surprise given the sharp uptick in US Treasury yields; Quantitative Strategist David Rodriguez examined this connection earlier on Tuesday. However, in recent days, as the 10-year US Treasury note yield, for example, set new 2013 highs and its highest level in 22-months; and yet the USDJPY still remained below its post-FOMC high of ¥98.70.
Now, as Chief Currency Strategist John Kicklighter noted earliertonight in the DailyFX Real Time News feed, the USDJPY may be carving out a Head & Shoulders top on the H2 timeframe, supported by the declining nature of the H2 RSI at each peak in the pattern (bearish divergence at a top is common). The pattern implies a selloff back to 95.00/05 in the USDJPY.
USDJPY 2-hour Chart: June 25, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
STRATEGY – SHORT USDJPY
Entry: At market (98.11 at the time of writing (assumed for strategy))) or “Short Zone” at 98.25/45
Stop: 98.75 (-64-pips)
Target 1 (Reward/Risk Ratio): 95.01 (+310-pips, 4.84)
Timeframe: 1-day to 1-week
USD TOP EVENT RISK – June 23 to June 28
JPY TOP EVENT RISK – June 23 to June 28
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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