Mon, May 28, 2012, 6:27 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed for Memorial Day

Spending and incomes show weak November gains

Consumer spending and personal incomes show weak gains; core durable goods orders fall

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers spent at a lackluster rate in November as their incomes barely grew, suggesting that Americans may struggle to keep spending more into 2012.

Consumer spending rose just 0.1 percent in November, matching the modest October increase, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Incomes also rose 0.1 percent. That was the weakest showing since a 0.1 percent decline in August.

Both the spending and income gains fell below expectations. Economists have said that solid increases in spending could boost economic growth in the final three months of what has been a disappointing year.

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, called the consumer spending figure disappointing. He said it would probably mean lower economic growth than had been expected.

Rather than grow at an annual rate of up to 3 percent in the October-December quarter, the economy will likely expand at a rate of about 2.5 percent this quarter, Ashworth says. That would still be an improvement from the 1.8 percent growth in the July-September quarter.

Separately, the government said companies' demand for long-lasting manufactured goods rose by the largest amount in four months in November, driven by a jump in orders for planes.

Orders to U.S. factories for durable goods rose 3.8 percent in November. It was the biggest gain since July. But so-called core capital goods, a proxy for business investment spending, dropped for a second straight month. They fell 1.2 percent.

The declines in business capital goods excluding aircraft raise doubts about a pocket of strength for the economy this year. Business investment spending has surged as companies stepped up orders to take advantage of tax breaks that are set to expire at year's end.

While the economy remains vulnerable to threats, particularly a recession in Europe, the job market has improved, lifting hopes for next year.

The government said this week that applications for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 last week to 364,000. It was the third straight weekly drop. And it pushed applications to the lowest level since April 2008, in the midst of the Great Recession.

The weakness in incomes reflected a decline in wages and salaries, the biggest component of incomes, in November.

The sluggish gain in spending was held back by a 0.3 percent fall in spending on non-durable goods such as food, clothing and gasoline. Spending on durable goods jumped 0.8 percent. It reflected the solid auto sales during the month.

Spending on services, which includes such items as medical treatments and rent, rose a modest 0.1 percent.

After-tax incomes showed no growth in November. The savings rate dipped to 3.5 percent of after-tax incomes, down from 3.6 percent in October. Both months marked the lowest savings rate since late 2007. They show that consumers are having to tap their savings to finance their spending because of the weak income growth.

The small rise in overall consumer spending was puzzling given that other reports have shown solid holiday shopping this season. Those reports had caused many economists to revise up their growth forecasts for the current quarter.

Analysts at JPMorgan think the economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the current October-December quarter. That would be up from 1.8 percent growth in the July-September quarter and would be the best quarterly gain since the spring of 2010.

Economists still expect that growth to be driven by an improvement in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of economic activity. Spending rose at a 1.7 percent rate in the third quarter, more than double the second-quarter gain. JPMorgan analysts expect consumer spending to grow at a 3 percent pace in the current quarter.

Even with the spurt of activity at the end of the year, economists think growth for all of 2011 will be a lackluster 1.7 percent.

They had much higher expectations when the year began. But then a spike in gasoline prices held back consumer spending for other items. And the earthquake in Japan disrupted supply chains for auto and electronic parts, dampening factory production in the United States.

Many analysts do not expect growth in 2012 to be significantly better than in 2011. JPMorgan economists predict the economy will expand 1.9 percent in 2012, only slightly better than this year.

 
  • joseph m  •  New Hartford, New York  •  5 months ago
    Give it an hour, next article will say how great the economy is because of all the Christmas spending
    • Loa 5 months ago
      Not yet, they ll keep that for first week of January
  • CC  •  5 months ago
    "what has been a disappointing year." and yet the media keeps telling us how good things are. The middle class in America knows how really bad things are with the sky high inflation and poor jobs market. They are not fooling anyone!
    • Geocacher37 5 months ago
      The media just told you it was a disappointing year. If you are reading that things are good, then that's your on fault.
    • Geocacher37 5 months ago
      own
    • CC 5 months ago
      I take it you haven't read many AP articles on the jobs market or inflation rate this week Geocacher37.....
  • Banksters are Thieves  •  Reno, Nevada  •  5 months ago
    The stock market is up over all this restoring confidence. And yet there is no proof that consumers are spending like fools anymore.
    • David 5 months ago
      No one has any money. A great feeling of pauperization descended upon the citizenry. There is no love for American Labor in the Republican Party. This did not happen overnight.
  • Think About IT Now Not La ...  •  5 months ago
    Numbers not adding up for the majority of seniors and middle to lower class Americans. Incomes and jobs in major decline. CD Interest rates and passbook savings at new lows this will have significant impact in the months to come. Also, all the seasonal jobs will erode very quick at the turn of the holiday. Santa Rally in deed but do not be folled by the numbers they're a lie. All that has happened here is Americans have once again over spent by 1.6% when they only have earned 1%.
    • phunk 5 months ago
      Passbook savings? Is this 1982 again? Lol.
  • Joe  •  Cedar Rapids, Iowa  •  5 months ago
    Well, this is a surprise! HAHA... Has the media noticed that most every job out there is starting at about $10/hr now.. where only a few years ago it was $15/hr... I'm sure the family of 4 can survive on 20.8k/yr
    • phunk 5 months ago
      Well according to most republicans you should be grateful for $10/hr with no benefits...otherwise the millionaire CEO can just outsource your job to really make you appreciate it.
    • Joe Ham 5 months ago
      Would you rather have NO job?
    • cw 5 months ago
      Joe Cedar Rapids - Spot On! Black Friday numbers were shopping compression. Seasonal employee layoffs will be tragic.

      Phunk - grow up. Take the political blinders off. Both parties share equal blame. Pelosi and Reed are millionaires, Soros and his ilk that fund them are billionaires. Look at who is donating to the incumbent president's campaign. Both parties serve the millionaires equally. They serve Wall Street and their interests equally. Look where all the past US Treasurers have come from in the past 36 years!
  • Super  •  Pleasanton, California  •  5 months ago
    Well, it is funny that more than 20% of the working force has lost their jobs and almost 80% of the workers who still have a job went through a serious hair cut in their income, you know what ? The profit of US corp broke record , US GDP did not shrink , and the consumer spending increased at the same time. Well, the MATH did not match here, and some is manipulating the data
  • bean-counter  •  Richardson, Texas  •  5 months ago
    OK if there are only about 100K new jobs per month (1.2 million per year) and there are 1.3million graduating fro high school and college each year plus 500K illegals coming here for jobs how many people will find a jobs next year? The math says illegals plus kids equal 1.8 million workers and only 1.2 million jobs next year. The only long term jobs are manuafcturing jobs but Obama has nothing in his plans for manufacturing. His jobs plan is only for stimulating small retail sales and his long term is only for temporary infrastructure, so without any long term strategy, how can we ever catch up. Anybody have a clue, Obama does not.
  • Jim W Hildreth  •  Sonora, California  •  5 months ago
    Who has any money? Taxes, Insurance, utility bills, mortgage payments and a 70% reduction in income. Oh well Merry Christmas.
  • American Patriot  •  5 months ago
    Yet the stock market continues to rally.
  • RAZOR  •  5 months ago
    The job market figures are deceptive. A good 50% of those figures account for temporary holiday hiring.
  • Loa  •  New York, New York  •  5 months ago
    December wallstreet Hype is over
  • Banksters are Thieves  •  Reno, Nevada  •  5 months ago
    The folks who want to "restore confidence", are the same folks who robbed us blind in the housing bubble and crash. Restoring confidence is a Wall Street game used way back in the Great Depression.
  • mmmmooooo  •  San Diego, California  •  5 months ago
    Now the Mothaphuker Bernanke wants to screw savers to bailout DEBTORS into 2014? A Citizen's Arrest for this CRIMINAL is long overdue!
  • Q  •  Greensboro, North Carolina  •  5 months ago
    "After tax income showed no growth in November". A Zero.
    "Weakness in incomes reflected a decline in wages and salaries", a decline.
    "Core capital goods, a proxy for business investment spending...fell 1.2 percent", a decline.
    So taxes are cutting into incomes, wages are declining, and business spending is declining before the tax cuts go away. The consumer is choked and business is still reluctant. The economic ship of state is listing again.
  • Gregory  •  Madison, New Jersey  •  5 months ago
    Why do we keep allowing this to happen ??? The media and the Gov tell us one thing and we always find out they are lying !!!
  • Keith  •  5 months ago
    November; isn't that Thanksgiving holiday weekend shopping month? Wasn't that supposed to be so robust? Along with cyber Monday, also in November.

    It seems to me we're fed a statement that the economy is improving and then reports of each component of the economy that paint a completely different picture.

    This is journalism?
  • Gregory  •  Madison, New Jersey  •  5 months ago
    I thought Black Friday sales were awesome ??? Never believe reports from any of the news channels. Thay are all full of crap....
  • Rambler  •  Seattle, Washington  •  5 months ago
    AP just keeps beating Barrys drum Ask your neighbor if things are getting better To hell with AP
  • Swb  •  5 months ago
    People have no credit and no money.
  • robbie11  •  Azle, Texas  •  5 months ago
    Can't afford steak and potato dinners anymore......how many ways can you cook hotdogs.
 
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