SPX 1410 Descending Line: Time to Backfill

MrTopStep.com

Don Soubolsky / level3data.com

The 1410 mark represents the top of a descending trend line and should continue to act as resistance. Last week the SPX rallied 66 points off the 11/16 lows of 1343.34. This week, it’s time for some backfilling.

BEARISH VIEW: Top of the range with a downward trend to retest at 1343.

BULLISH VIEW: Upward trend to retest at 1433. Expect higher volatility but buy the dips.

LEVEL 3 DATA EXHAUSTION LEVELS: Neutral on stocks (SPY) and bonds (TLT).

We are sellers at the 1410 level and buyers of dips at the 1390 to 1395 level of the SPX.

RECAP: Monday November 26th: “Exit Signal on SPY”

Our Level 3 Data Quant Report Exhaustion Indicator is neutral on the SPY and most market ETFs. This is reflected in a slow trading day with the SPX closing down 2 points.
The Buying Pressure has eased somewhat since last week’s exits on 18 key market ETFs with an average gain of +0.91% and with an 89% profitability rate.
The Level 3 Data Quant Report measures Price Exhaustion and provides clear buy sell signals.

LEVELS RECAP: Our non-bolded support level 1397.5 was the low of the day. The 1397.50 was 10 points lower than Friday’s high. The first bolded support of 1395.85 was not reached.

LEVELS: Today November 27th: SPX S&P 500 Index:
Key resistance level for SPX: S&P 500 index today November 27th – 1416.3, 1420.90
Key support level for SPX: S&P 500 index today November 27th – 1402.1, 1397.63

UP 1409.25, 1414.95, 1416.30, 1418.3, 1420.90, 1424
DOWN 1406.45, 1403.40, 1402.1, 1400.36, 1397.63, 1390

SPY – S&P 500 ETF:    Level 3 Data Quant Report signal is NEUTRAL:

11/08 Buy Signal was exited Friday with a 1.26% gain. To sustain this rally the bulls need to defend the 0-line of $139.81 which is now acting as support. The short-term trading is now $139.81 to $141.40. The $141.40 represents a series of lower highs and if the bulls cannot push the SPY higher we could quickly see the $139.81 break to the downside. L3D Quant Report Exhaustion Indicator is neutral on the SPY.

THE MOST LIKELY TRADING SCENARIO is that we have seen the highs of the year of $148.11. The series of lower highs and lower lows will most likely continue.  We rebounded off the $134.70 bottom to safely close above the 0-line of $139.81. Unless the fiscal cliff issue is resolved the $139.81 support will most likely break down to retest $134.70 low.

SPY 1 Day Data

SPY 1 Day Data Level3Data

 

TLT – Long Term Bonds:    Level 3 Data Quant Report signal is NEUTRAL:

11/08 Sell Signal was exited last Thursday with a 1.12% gain. The TLT is trading in and around the 0-line of $124.51 and is now acting as support. The closing price Monday was $124.80.

THE MOST LIKELY TRADING SCENARIO for TLT is to bounce around the 0-line and trade higher to print a new high in the $128 range. The TLT is a mirror image of the SPY.

L3D Quant Report Exhaustion Indicator is neutral on the TLT.

 

TLT 1 Day Data

TLT 1 Day Data Level3Data

 

 

 

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