Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.
During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 25- to 40-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.
Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.
In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Coach (COH), Panera Bread (PNRA), Facebook (FB), Broadcom (BRCM), F5 Networks (FFIV), Akamai (AKAM), Corning (GLW), Potash (POT), Caterpillar (CAT), and Netflix (NFLX).
Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about Panera:
Panera has beaten analyst EPS estimates six of the past eight quarters, meeting the consensus once and missing once. Over that stretch, the stock has risen the next session four of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen three times in the last four years.
Last quarter, Panera earned $44.1 million, or $1.50 cents per share, on an 18% sales increase to $530.6 million. Analysts had expected EPS of $1.43.
Same-store sales rose 6%, including 7.1% at company owned bakery-cafes. The Q2 comps consisted of 90 basis points of transaction growth and 6.2% average check growth. Average check growth consisted of year-over-year effective price increases of approximately 3% and mix impact of 3.2%.
The operating margin was 90 basis points better year-over-year, driven by bakery-cafe margins that improved by 200 basis points compared to the prior year. The company said strong sales results produced leverage in the labor and occupancy expense lines.
The quick casual dining chain raised its full-year guidance to $5.72-$5.78 a share from $5.58-$5.63. ...
Outside of earnings, Panera Bread is a well-run fast-casual dining chain with a strong balance sheet, a good mix of company-owned and retail outlets, and has the potential to grow operating cash flow and profits in the mid-teens or higher. It is a solid brand name and with fewer than 1,500 outlets nationwide, it has a big runway for expansion.
The stock is trading at approximately 24x the estimated 2013 EPS consensus (23 ex cash) and about 11x EBITDA. ...
The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.
Just a few of the correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q3 were:
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- Panera Bread