Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.
During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 20- to 30-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.
Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for approximately two-third of the stocks it's previewed.
In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Kinder Morgan (KMP), F5 Networks (FFIV), eBay (EBAY), Microsoft (MSFT), Inuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Google (GOOG).
Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about eBay:
eBay operates as an e-commerce operator under its own brand at eBay.com, and via various subsidiaries, which include secondary event tickets marketplace, StubHub; fixed-price media marketplace, Half.com; apartment listing site, Rent.com; and comparison shopping site, Shopping.com. Its payments segment includes popular online payment solutions player PayPal and Bill Me Later.
Last Quarter's Results: The company earned $570 million, or 44 cents per share, in Q1 versus $476 million, or 36 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings rose 17% to $725 million, or 55 cents, from $619 million, or 47 cents, a year ago, which topped analyst expectations for EPS of 52 cents.
Revenue soared 29% to $3.28 billion, above the $3.15 billion consensus. Organically, revenue rose 18%.
eBay generated $531 million in operating cash flow and $289 million in free cash flow during the quarter. Cash flow was hurt by an approximately $300 million tax payment related to the sale of Skype.
The company guided for adjusted Q2 EPS of 53-55 cents, versus the 54-cent consensus. Revenue was projected to rise to $3.25-$3.35 billion compared to estimates of $3.36 billion.
For the full year, eBay upped its guidance to adjusted EPS of $2.30-$2.35 on revenue of $13.8-$14.1 billion, up from prior guidance calling for adjusted EPS of $2.25-$2.30 on revenue of $13.7-$14.0 billion. Analysts were looking for EPS of $2.30 on revenue of $13.85 billion. ...
eBay has beaten analyst EPS estimates seven of the past eight quarters, meeting the consensus the other time. During that time, the stock has risen six of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen three of the last four years. ...
Outside of earnings, eBay has done an excellent job turning around its Marketplace business, and has essentially transformed itself from an online auction website into a retail and payments technology and fulfillment company that can help retailers optimize their businesses both online and offline ....
Meanwhile, PayPal is a swiftly growing online payments business, but with its offline initiatives and move into the virtual wallet, its potential is even greater. However, the stock is not pricing in any of the optionality of PayPal. ...
The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.
Just a few of the recent correct calls BullMarket.com made for Q4 were:
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