Stocks tend to be most volatile around earnings season, when a good or bad report can make or break it. However, a good or even great earnings report doesn't necessarily translate into a huge pop for a stock.
During earnings season, BullMarket.com publishes a comprehensive 20- to 30-page Earnings Preview report for the week ahead each Friday.
Over the past year, BullMarket.com used the data it has collected to correctly predict investor reactions for nearly two-third of the stocks it's previewed.
In its latest earnings preview, BullMarket.com looks at several popular stocks, including Intel (Nasdaq: INTC - News), Cree (Nasdaq: CREE - News), IBM (NYSE: IBM - News), Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM - News), F5 Networks (Nasdaq: FFIV - News), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY - News), Chipotle (NYSE: CMG - News), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT - News), and Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG - News).
Here is just a tiny sample of what BullMarket.com wrote about Intel:
Intel is the world's largest semiconductor company. The company designs and manufactures computing and communications components, such as microprocessors, chipsets, motherboards, and wireless and wired connectivity products, as well as platforms that incorporate these components.
Last quarter, Intel said its fourth-quarter profit increased 6% to $3.36 billion, or 64 cents per share, from $3.18 billion, or 56 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue climbed 21% to $13.9 billion. On an adjusted basis, Intel earned 68 cents.
Analysts had expected EPS of 61 cents on revenue of $13.7 billion.
The company said 2011 was its most profitable year and a year of record revenues. Sales of $54 billion grew by more than $10 billion, or 24%, from 2010 and represent Intel's second consecutive year of greater than 20% growth. Its PC Client Group and Data Center Group both grew at 17% year-on-year.
Intel also closed on the acquisitions of McAfee and the Infineon Wireless Division in 2011, which contributed $3.6 billion to its revenue growth. Gross margin of 62.5% in 2011 was at the high end of the company's historical range. Excluding that added revenue the top-line growth was 15%.
Discussing the PC business, CEO Paul Otellini said Intel saw record notebook microprocessor unit sales in 2011 as the PC Client Group grew 17%, "fueled by demand in the enterprise and emerging markets and PC users' appetites for higher performance and more energy-efficient computing. The result was a second consecutive year of rising ASPs as our mix of Core CPUs increased to nearly 70%."
Sandy Bridge microprocessors accounted for approximately 40% of the company's total revenue. Geographically, emerging markets now account for two out of every three incremental units of PC demand, Otellini added, saying the shift is helping Intel and the PC companies that have a long standing presence in these markets. ...
Intel has beaten analyst EPS estimates each quarter over the past two years. During that time, the stock has risen five of eight quarters. Seasonally, the stock has risen three of the last four years. ...
Outside of earnings, investors seem to have finally started to warm up to Intel. There will continue to be some pressure from a weak consumer PC market in developed nations, however, the company has solid opportunities elsewhere.
As we've said for awhile, we think Intel's ability to eventually be able to compete better versus ARM Holdings (Nasdaq: ARMH - News) in the tablet and smartphone space should start to gain it some market share.
In addition, its new ultrabook strategy (ultrabooks are super-thin lap-tops, similar to the Macbook Air) looks like it could have a lot of potential, although it likely won't fully gain steam until 2013 when prices are expected to drop to around $600. The ecosystem for ultrabooks is also likely to squeeze out both ARM MPUs (microprocessing unit) in the category, as well as GPU (graphics processing unit) makers like NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD). The company should also benefit from the introduction of Windows 8. ...
The full BullMarket.com earnings analysis includes a look at historical earnings data and EPS trends for the companies above and more; examines past investor reactions to earnings in various contexts; gives options activity analysis; reviews previous-quarter earnings; and gives an opinion on both what earnings will look like and how investors will react based on the aforementioned data points.
Just a few of the correct calls BullMarket.com made in Q4 were:
A daily investment service that is committed to creating long-term wealth for its members, BullMarket.com's Recommended List of stocks is up 33.3% from 2008-2011 versus a -14.4% return for the S&P, a 47.7% outperformance, topping the benchmark each year since the start of the Great Recession. Subscribers receive actionable market commentary, access to 40+ stock ideas on the Recommended List, and real-time trade alerts. Plus, sign up for a free trial today to view Bull Market's in-depth Special Reports - including its annual High Yield and MLP reports - and its timely Earnings Previews, which are published every Friday during the heart of earnings season. Get a Risk-Free Trial to Bull Market Today! (Please note returns are unaudited.)