STOCKS RALLY AND THE GOVERNMENT'S STILL SHUT DOWN: Here's What You Need To Know

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REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Table tennis paddles bear the pictures of key congressional leaders at Sixth & I Synagogue's "Shutdown Central" in Washington, October 3, 2013.

It's day four of the government shutdown.

First, the scoreboard:

  • Dow:  15,073 .5, +76.1, +0.5 %
  • S&P 500: 1,690.5, +11.8, +0.7%
  • NASDAQ: 3,807.7, +33.4, 0.8%

And now the top stories:

  • The government remains shut down. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was closed, which was why we didn't get a jobs report today. Here's Everything We Know About The Jobs Report That Didn't Get Released »
  • Meanwhile, the shutdown is having a large impact on the American consumer. Gallup's Economic Confidence index sank to -34 this week, which is the lowest level since Dec. 2011.
  • And the debt ceiling continues to inch closer. Goldman Sachs' Alec Phillips assigns a 30% probability of a debt ceiling resolution before the government comes back online: "It is possible that after attempting to merge the two issues, congressional leaders could find themselves still unable to agree on how to resolve the shutdown by the time the debt limit deadline has been reached. However, it appears fairly clear to us that neither Republican nor Democratic leaders are interested in allowing the Treasury to run out of cash. In such a scenario, it is plausible that House Republicans could agree to bring up a "clean" or nearly clean debt limit increase, which would pass with more Democratic than Republican votes. Media reports indicate that Speaker Boehner has raised this possibility with some of his Republican colleagues."
  • " We believe the risk of a U.S. debt default is not high enough at the moment to justify selling — but to be clear, a debt default would have serious negative consequences to our positive thesis on equities were it to occur," wrote JP Morgan's Tom Lee. " As we noted earlier in the week, equity markets have shown decent performance once a shutdown begins. The greater risk, obviously, is of a potential debt default. As we noted above, this does not yet appear to be a material concern of the debt markets (as evidenced by CDS spreads) and we believe both political parties have enormous interest in avoiding this outcome as well ."
  • Don't Miss: GOLDMAN: Here Are The 20 Cheapest Stocks In The Market »
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