SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is breaking out to all-time highs as it is trading intra-day above its 2000/2007 peaks. A convincing move through this resistance could have significant technical implications.
First off, it allows for a move towards psychological supply at 160 and then towards 168-170 in what might become a speculative market. By definition a speculative market is not sustainable and they typically end rather harshly, so SPY will need to be closely monitored.
Opportunities may also begin to arise in various International/Emerging equity ETFs as they begin to play catch-up on the perception of a global recovery.
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA): Sideways trading over the last 2+ months has flattened out the 10-week moving average. This type of consolidation generally does one of two things: namely it helps to alleviate an overbought condition and sets into motion a continuation of the rally OR it breaks down and reverses the prior trend. That is want needs to be monitored over the weeks ahead. A move above the Mar. 2013 high ( 60 ) resolves the consolidation to the upside allowing for a test of the 2011 peak ( 64.35 ). On the other hand, a move below the Feb. 2013 low ( 57.02 ) points to additional weakness.
iShares FTSE China Large-Cap ETF (FXI): FXI continues to trade within the confines of a steep Feb. 2013 downtrend channel. As a result of the 17% decline since the Feb. 2013 peak, an oversold condition has developed as FXI is again testing the bottom of the channel. A technical bounce should not be surprising, but one should also not be fooled by it. In other words, FXI needs to at least trade above the top of the channel and the 10/30-week moving averages near 37-38 , before the technical evidence suggests an effort at stabilizing and the beginning of a base-building process.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY): SPY is breaking out to all-time highs as it is trading intra-day above its 2000/2007 peaks. A convincing move through this resistance could have significant technical implications. First off, it allows for a move towards psychological supply at 160 and then towards 168-170 in what might become a speculative market. By definition a speculative market is not sustainable and they typically end rather harshly, so SPY will need to be closely monitored. [A Technical Guide to SPY]
iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM): A rather nasty looking head and shoulders top has been in the making since late-2009. From a near-term perspective there are a couple of things that need to be watched rather closely as they could begin to affect the intermediate to longer-term outlook. The first is that the 10-week moving average has rapidly approached the 30-week moving average from above. A move below the 30-week moving average could begin to set into motion sell executions. The second is how EEM reacts at the 2008 uptrend line. Violation of this support signals a changing of the long-term trend.
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ): The 4/7/13 negative outside week, the down trending 30-week moving average, the 4/5/13 downside gap, and weak relative strength (vs. SPX) are technical evidence that the right shoulder of a 14-month head and shoulders top may be forming. Initial support near 65-66 is now becoming increasingly significant as this corresponds to the 1/2/13 upside gap, the Feb. 2013 low, and the 2009 uptrend line. A violation here opens the door for a test of critical neckline support into the low-60s .
J. Beck Investments is an independent provider of technical research for ETFs.