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The Fed, Apple and Kentucky Derby: What's on tap next week

It’s going to be one of the most closely-watched of the always closely-watched Federal Reserve meetings.

Chairwoman Janet Yellen and company gather in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the financial world is wondering whether the Fed policymakers will finally tell us when they will begin raising interest rates.

Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Michael Santoli says don’t expect that, but look for some directional hints.

“The Fed’s not really going to say much,” he says, “But I do think they’re maybe going to drag people’s expectations back to September, get market psychology back thinking September, if not probable then possible.”

Santoli feels the policymakers will shrug off concerns about weak first-quarter economic numbers.
“They’re looking for a pickup,” he says. “They’re probably going to say the first quarter was an aberration with the weakness.”

Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer feels that the soft start to 2015 adds a bit of intrigue to this meeting.

“This is one of the most interesting times in recent memory talking about possible Fed hikes because of the weakness in the first quarter,” he adds.

Yahoo Finance’s Jen Rogers agrees.

“It’s definitely a little puzzler on what they’re going to do,” she notes.

Santoli also thinks the Fed will have to play a bit of a balancing act next week.

“They probably also want to say they don’t want markets to become overconfident,” he explains. “They’re really fighting this war of rhetoric to try to keep the markets from getting too frothy. So maybe that’s going to be the message.”

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Earnings season continues in earnest next week. Among the S&P 500 (^GSPC) components reporting: Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), UPS (UPS), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Visa (V) and to start the week--Apple (AAPL) after the close of trading Monday.

Santoli believes that despite all the hype about the new Apple Watch-- the first of which arrived at customers’ homes Friday-- that won’t be key to Apple's performance in coming quarters.

“It’s an iPhone story,” he says. “That’s still what it’s going to be about for the bottom line.”

And Santoli notes Wall Street isn’t looking for anything too grandiose from Apple.

“Expectations are pretty muted,” he adds. “The stock’s done a lot of work coming in, up more than 50% over the last year.”

The Apple earnings will be bookended by two big sporting events: The Yankees-Mets “Subway Series” and the Kentucky Derby.

Rogers notes the Mets go into the matchup with 11-straight wins, while the Yanks have taken six of the last seven.

“I want to see how this plays out in the media capital of the world in terms of ratings,” she says. “The Mets’ SNY Network (CMCSA) is doing really well.”

Meantime, Serwer is focusing on the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, and the official drink of the Run for the Roses.

“I’m thinking about mint juleps,” he laughs. “So Brown-Forman (BF-B), the bourbon distillers should be having a banner weekend coming up.”

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