Hedge fund manager who nailed oil's collapse gave his next big trade for the 'coming end of the bull market'
Zach Schreiber has a trade with a potential profit of 10-50 times your money.
Hedge fund manager Zach Schreiber, who famously called oil’s collapse in 2014, gave a his next big trade idea for “the coming end of the bull market in unsustainable equilibria.”
The PointState Capital founder’s trade is long the US Dollar versus short the Saudi Riyal (USD/SAR). Currently, the Saudi Riyal is pegged at 3.75 to 1 US dollar.
Speaking at the 21st annual Sohn Conference, Schreiber told the room of nearly 3,000 that he thinks the trade has a potential profit of 10-50 times your money depending on your duration.
In May 2014, Schreiber famously declared at the Sohn Conference that oil was going “lower, much lower.” At the time, crude was trading around $100 per barrel. In November 2014, WTI collapsed and his trade resulted in a windfall for his investors.
Short term, he's bullish on oil.
However, he’s medium to long-term bearish for reasons such as US interest rate normalization, the inevitable deleveraging of the Chinese financial system, and electric vehicle and technological disruption broadly.
Saudi Arabia, an oil-based economy, needs a break-even oil price $90 per barrel. Schreiber said the country faces upward pressures on the budget (social entitlement program, exploding demographics, and a defense spending imperative) and downward pressure on oil prices.
Because of these factors, Saudi Arabia is “economically unsustainable and its currency peg is massively overvalued.”
He also noted that the global financial system has adjusted to lower oil prices with one exception — Saudi Arabia.
To offset this trade, Schreiber is long the Russian Ruble and the Mexican Peso.
Before founding PointState, Schreiber worked under hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller for six years at Duquesne Capital. Druckenmiller has referred to him as an “absolute superstar.”
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Julia La Roche is a finance reporter at Yahoo Finance.
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