But the addict in me told me to take one last shot on Wednesday and sell the yen. I got short at 10789…Wednesday’s high of the day was 10792. The yen backed off and the more I thought about it…getting short the yen was nothing but an addict trade. I was rolling the dice on the BOJ meeting/ECB/BOE/Friday payrolls. I thought to myself ... you’re a speculator. Not an addict gambler. Practice what you preach TLP. I took a 10-tick profit on my short yen and made a decision to hang up my trading boots for a while. The difference in TLP from a month ago…I was on a roll a month ago. I was psychologically in a great frame of mind for trading. A month ago I would have run the short yen position and had a huge day today. Instead, I’m in a funk. My timing is off. I am confused and opted to practice the art of keeping my profits. I always like to preach…this trading game is just as much psychological as it is physical. If someone told me in October I would make what I did in six months I would have asked…where do I sign. I will not be trading tomorrow. Even with the yen down almost 400 points today, it felt good to not trade. I am working on my new website today. It will be up and running soon. Treasuries…I have been spot-on here. Let’s see if we are in store for buy the rumor / sell the news. Only a month ago the treasuries were telling me to look for a big payrolls number. I nailed it looking for +238,000. The number came out at +236,000. The treasuries have been telling me for almost two weeks to look for a bad number tomorrow. Market expectations are for +200,000. The whisper number is a bit lower. My number is a shock to the system at +128,000. The unemployment god giveth last month and taketh away this month. The question we must ask ourselves…is this a case of buy the rumor / sell the news? In my heavy trading days I would have bought this a couple of days ago and be running my long position into the number. These days I practice patience. I do not shoot from the hip anymore on Friday payrolls. Treasury resistance levels have been identified. If you are long and ZBM trades 14715-14800, look to take profits. The bears will take a shot and sell the bonds up here. I have a Power Point at 14724. Levels of resistance in ZNM are at 13302-13304 and 13314-13318. The buy the rumor / sell the news bear traders will look to short 13314-13318. I have Power Points at 13312 and 13323. 04/05 7:30 AM Non-Farm Payrolls, International Trade, 2:00 PM Consumer Credit I am looking for a bad number…let’s talk about the downside in the indices. I am by no means calling what we have seen a major top. I do believe what we have to look forward to is another week or so of very difficult corrective style trade with a bearish emphasis. I like ESM down to retest the 1544.00 lows of the move. In YMM, I think we can easily see the 61.8% level at 14423. NQM has the 50-day moving average coming in at 2765-2766 and a couple of Fibonacci levels at 2769-2771. The gambling man will go into the data short and if the market comes off this whole area down here 2765-2771 is where you get them back. The bulls may take a shot down here with a small long. Do not get married to any positions tomorrow. Remember, real bad data will keep Bernanke’s foot on the gas pedal. Any kind of severe selloff post-data is in my mind a huge buying opportunity. And of course, I don’t know why it is, but if it can go wrong it will go wrong on a Friday. Good luck today. S&P 500 FUTURES: N KOREA, ASIAN BIRD FLU & THE U.S. JOB REPORT By Danny Riley Short and sweet: The list of problems is growing for the global markets. From Cyprus to the U.S it’s starting to feel like things could come unhinged. As of yesterday’s close the S&P is up a whopping +130% from its 2009 closing low. Yesterday, CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo caught on to what MrTopStep has been saying for the last few days, that the S&P is showing 12 consecutive days of alternating ups and downs, the longest such stretch since 1981. This could be considered a “back and fill” pattern, but it also is starting to look like the S&P may be stalling out. Year to date the S&P is up +9.38% and just 0.65% off its all-time cash high set on Tuesday; the futures high comes in at 1585. We are not saying the upside party is over, but when you see so much liquidation in the energy and commodity markets and the excessive rotation in stocks it tends to cast a shadow of doubt over the markets. Our view: There have been a total of 12 Fridays so far this year, 10 up / 2 down. The average gain has been +6.82 handles and the average loss has been -1.9 handles. Can the S&P go higher today? Sure, if the jobs numbers come in OK, but that doesn't seem very likely. We want to get down to the floor for the number. As always, keep an eye on the 10-handle rule and please use stops when trading.
- It’s 7:00 a.m. and the ESM is down 8.75 handles at 1545.75, crude is down 30 cents at 92.96 and the EC is trading 1.2939, down 5 pips.
- In Asia, 6 out of 11 markets closed lower (Shanghai Comp. -0.11%, Hang Seng -2.73%, Nikkei +1.58%).
- In Europe, 11 out of 12 markets are trading lower (CAC -1.29%, DAX -1.52%)
- Today’s headline: “S&P Futures Down Ahead of U.S Jobs Report”
- Total volume: 2mil ESM and 8.5k SPM traded
- Fair value: S&P -9.28, NASDAQ -22.52
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