Tracking Stock Price Reactions to Earnings

Richard Suttmeier
January 30, 2013

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Today I review the price action for the stocks I profiled pre-earnings, those who reported their results between Jan. 24 and Tuesday. The winners have been outrunning the losers despite overvalued fundamentals and as weekly charts for the major averages become overbought.
I profiled the first six stocks covered today on Jan. 22 in Apple, McDonald's Headline Earnings Wednesday.
On Monday, I wrote, Will Homebuilders Q4 Support Additional Share Price Strength?, and earnings from two homebuilders and another bellwether profiled in this post are in the books.

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On Tuesday, I wrote, Jungle of Earnings Includes Amazon, and earnings from two of the stocks profiled in this post were released after Tuesday's close including Amazon.com AMZN .
Amazon ($260.35) missed EPS estimates by 9 cents per share earning 21 cents per share. The online retailer also missed on the revenue line, but reported improved margins and the stock spiked to an after-hours high at $288.00, which would be a new all-time high if matched in today's trading. Amazon had set an all-time high at $284.72 Friday, and traded as low as $258.35 before releasing results after the close. AMZN still has a hold rating and is 26.5% overvalued with my quarterly value level at $255.75, a weekly pivot at $275.00 and semiannual risky level at $305.64.
This morning www.ValuEngine.com shows that 63.4% of all stocks are overvalued getting even closer to our 65% warning threshold. All 16 sectors remain overvalued with nine overvalued by double-digit percentages; consumer staples by 28.5%, transportation by 25.2%, construction by 24.9%, industrial products by 21.5%, finance by 16.8%, retail-wholesale by 16.5%, medical by 16.5%, computer and technology by 15.5% and business services by 10.8%.

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Technically, the Dow Industrial Average has an extremely overbought daily chart, a weekly chart that is nearly overbought, and a monthly chart that is overbought. The Dow is knocking on the door of 14k solid gold with the October 2007 all-time high is 14,198.10 and the all-time closing high at 14,164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007.

Here's My Earnings Scorecard:


3M MMM ($101.81) reported in-line EPS at $1.41 per share but reported improving product sales. The stock has been upgraded to buy from hold and traded to a new multi-year high at $101.87 on Tuesday. My monthly value level is $91.64 with a weekly pivot at $100.21 and semiannual risky level at $111.34.
Union Pacific UNP ($134.76) beat EPS estimates by three cent at $2.19 per share. UNP set a new multi-year high at $136.19 on Jan. 23. The stock still has a strong buy rating with my monthly value level at $129.94 with a weekly pivot at $135.29 and semiannual risky level at $143.14.
JB Hunt Transport JBHT ($68.09) reported in-line EPS at 70 cents per share with better than expected revenue. JBHT set a new multi-year high at $68.58 on Thursday. The stock continues to have buy rating with my weekly value level at $63.65 and semiannual pivot at $64.28.
Cirrus Logic CRUS ($28.43) beat EPS estimates by 21 cents a share earning $1.55 per share. CRUS set an all-time high at $45.49 on Sept. 7 then fell to $25.31 on Dec. 14 and remains below its 200-day simple moving average at $31.90. The stock still has a hold rating with my weekly value level at $25.85 and quarterly risky level at $32.35.
AT&T T ($34.68) missed EPS estimates by three cents earning 44 cents per share. AT&T is still is below but approaching its 200-day SMA at $34.99. The stock still has a hold rating with my semiannual value level at $31.76, a weekly pivot at $33.81 and quarterly risky level at $35.68.
Microsoft MSFT ($28.01) beat EPS estimates by six cents earning 81 cents per share. MSFT remains below its 200-day SMA at $29.39. The stock still has a buy rating with my monthly value level at $25.41, quarterly and annual pivots at $27.26 and $27.92, and my annual risky level at $28.57.
Caterpillar CAT ($98.60) beat EPS estimates after adjustments. CAT is well below its February 2012 high set at $116.95 and is well above its July 2012 low set at $78.25. The stock still has a buy rating with a quarterly value level at $92.77, annual pivots at $96.43 and $97.63, a weekly risky level at $99.11 and semiannual risky level at $111.99.

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D R Horton DHI ($23.82) beat EPS estimates by six cents earning 20 cents per share. The stock has been downgraded to hold from buy this morning after setting a new multi-year high at $24.03 in reaction to its earnings report. My semiannual value level is $20.50 and monthly pivot at $21.92 and no risky levels.
Ryland Group RYL ($41.31) beat EPS estimates by six cents after the close on Tuesday earning 56 cents per share. RYL has a hold rating and was trading around $42.75 in after-hours trading. My monthly value level is $37.26 with a weekly pivot at $41.07 and no risky levels.
Pfizer PFE ($27.70) beat EPS estimates by three cents earning 47 cents per share. PFE still has a buy rating and set a new multi-year high at $27.84 on Tuesday in reaction to its earnings report. My monthly value level is $25.47 with weekly and quarterly pivots at $26.92 and $27.13 and no risky levels.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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