Fed to change rate guidance as unemployment falls, according to minutes from the last meeting. *Two officials support rate hikes relatively soon. *SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID TEMPORARY FACTORS SPURRED GROWTH. *FED’S FISHER, PLOSSER DISSENTED AGAINST EXTENSION OF REPO TOOL. So what was it the new Fed chair was saying, testifying just last week? That sounded more dovish than today’s more hawkish minutes … anyone over there know what clarity means?
Snippets: Pre-market William Blount offered: good morning – today is series s3L, wild card day, and the spill pressure is UP. At first blush, Tuesday was the typical POP DROP GRIND found in bull grinds; however looking deeper, the BULLS did not capitalize on the gift. The range was COMPRESSED at 7.8 handles; the high of day was early and weak at lunch; the last hour high did not take out the lunch high and worst of all left a possible nano TRUNCATED 5th – SEE CHART (included in email) – which portends correcting @ minimum (with emphasis on the word MINIMUM).
Couple quick notes: Fair Value @ -3.08 has denigrated about 2.5 handles since the Bulls FAILED at the MUST PERFORM (inability to kill 1841.10 year end high and more importantly the 1844.5 SPOT). Current prices adjusted for the FV denigration put us RIGHT SMACK DAB against that resistance of 1841+. I do not do the in depth analysis of the NDX futures that I do with SPOO; however, the SAME APPROACH that targeted 3624 – 3636 HIGH coming off the 3492 LOW once on JAN 13 -SEE DAILY CHART – once 3520 was cleared that morning, WAS USED TO target the 3680 high LAST WEEK commensurate with clearing 1794 SPOO (think about COMPX not NDX and maybe some light bulbs will pop on).
Words, words – dirty words … the Kremlin said it is watching the upheaval in Ukraine “attentively” but Russia is sticking to its policy of non-intervention – Reuters. FrogMan on Natural Gas, as well if Ukraine goes back and Europe starts flexing muscle Putin will try to close the pipeline again and blackmail EU this way. stephen_c Chamberlain- appeasement. Reminiscent of other U.S. condemnations: like RED line in Syria, same thing with Iran – did great in Iraq & Afghanistan too. Also, we are noting the RED MACHINE lost a chance for even a bronze medal in men’s hockey – now certainly they won’t like anyone meddling in their backyard following the closing ceremonies …
Today started with 205k ESH and 750 SPH traded on Globex, ESH trading range was 1836.90 – 1830.10. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1839.80 – 1831.80 before settling at 1837.40, up 2.4 handles.
Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 6.5 handles lower to 1832.50 – 1833.00, held yesterday’s low before grinding higher to 1844.30 weekly high before sideways to lower price action – then dumping on a number of Ukraine civil unrest and the Russian men’s team out of contention headlines and more importantly Raph_P (11:00) *IMF SAYS GLOBAL GROWTH UNEVEN, FRAGILE AS DOWNSIDE RISKS REMAIN – holding 1831.00 and bouncing into the midrange. Traders waited on the Fed minutes as the equities drifted in choppy trade leaning to downside.
Kathy’s midday video: http://bit.ly/MwsbUZ
Following the FOMC minutes the S&P ran some weak shorts, electing small buy stops before being rejected at 1839 area and reversing to the downside. The MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, showed a small sell-side imbalance before flipping SPX grew to $200M to going into the close. The futures traded 1825.50 area on the cash close before settling at 1825.50, down 11.9 handles, and on the twelfth day … they dumped, volume was light, 1.75M E-minis traded. Headline risk overcometh …
Watch for the flash PMI’s … Coming events: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ Earnings pre-market: Accor, [ACT], Cap Gemini, [CBB], [DAN], [DNR], [DTV], Henkel, [HRL], [HSNI], [LXK], [LXP], Puma, [SONS], [TWI], [WLK], [WLT], [WMT], [ZLC]. Thursday post close: [ARUN], [CENX], [COG], [COMM], [ESRX], [GRPN], [ENV], [HPQ], [INTU], [JWN], [MDRX], [MHK], [MRVL], [NEM], [PCLN], [PRA], [PSA], [QLIK], [WAGE], [WBMD].
The China risk you may have forgotten about: The property market is the biggest concern about China right now, Adrian Mowat, chief Asian and emerging market equity strategist at JPMorgan, told CNBC. http://bit.ly/1huxpyr