Holidays are a great time to catch up on some reading.
In light of that, UBS' Jonathan Golub put together a brief list of research papers on energy, easy monetary policy, debt reduction, and a paper on long-term trends intended to guide policymakers.
"Although the United States’ (and the West’s) relative decline vis-a-vis the rising states is inevitable, its future role in the international system is much harder to project: the degree to which the US continues to dominate the international system could vary widely.
The US most likely will remain “first among equals” among the other great powers in 2030 … Nevertheless, with the rapid rise of other countries, the “unipolar moment” is over and Pax Americana—the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945—is fast winding down."
"It has been suggested that the threat to price stability could … manifest itself in various ways. Leijonhufvud (2012) contends that the end results of such credit driven processes could be either hyperinflation or deflation, with the outcome being essentially indeterminate prior to its realization. Indeed, Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) and Bernholz (2006) indicate that there are ample historical precedents for both possible outcomes."
"With the population aging and health care costs per person likely to keep growing faster than the economy, the United States cannot sustain the federal spending programs that are now in place with the federal taxes (as a share of GDP) that it has been accustomed to paying.
Lawmakers will need to adopt a combination of policies that require people to pay more for their government, accept less in government benefits and services, or both."
"Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America – and the energy sector. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s). The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries."
Happy holidays. And happy reading!
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