THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar continues to hold above trend-defining support despite a push higher from the S&P 500 that took the index narrowly above the 1400 figure.
S&P 500 – Prices narrowly closed beyond the 1400 figure, seemingly exposing the next upside hurdle at the top of a rising channel set from early June, now at 1414.00 (although conviction seems suspect). Near-term support lines up at 1392.10, with a break below that exposing a falling trend line established from the March 27 high now at 1368.30.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing resistance in the 93.21-90 area marked by the July 19 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break higher exposes the 61.8% Fib at 97.82. Near-term support stands at the psychologically significant 90.00 figure and is reinforced by the 38.2% retracement at 89.87. A push below that targets a rising trend line now at 87.76.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices are testing resistance in the 1620.45-35.70 congestion area after bouncing from support at a rising trend line support set from late June. A break to the upside initially exposes 1671.49. Trend line supports line up at 1589.28 and 1572.13.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above support at a major rising trend line established from late July 2011, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 10038, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a push beyond that targeting the midline of a falling channel carved out over the past two months, now at 10076. Alternatively, a break below support (now in the 9975-92 area) initially exposes the 100% expansion at 9925.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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