US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend

Ilya Spivak

Talking Points:


  • US Dollar Channel Break Would Overturn 4-Month Downtrend
  • S&P 500 Looking for Direction Cues Below October Swing High
  • Gold at Risk of Deeper Losses, Crude Oil Rebounds as Expected


Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **



US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing above resistance in the 10582-604 area, marked by the top of a falling channel established from early July and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.A break above that initially exposes the 50% Fib at 10682.A turn back below the channel top sees initial support at 10509, the 23.6% level.


Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend
View photos
Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0


** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.




S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are struggling to build lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern but the pattern remains valid absent a daily close above 1778.90, the October 30 high. Initial support is at 1747.70, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1728.50.


Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend
View photos
Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0



GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke below support at 1292.15, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 50% level at 1270.67. A further push beneath that eyes the 61.8% Fib at 1249.18. Alternatively, a turn back above 1292.15 targets the 23.6% expansion at 1318.73.


Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend
View photos
Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0




CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices broke higher as expected after showing a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, taking out falling trend line resistance to expose the top of a falling channel set from early September at 97.09. Alternatively, a turn back below the trend line (now at 93.77) targets the November 5 low at 93.09.


Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend
View photos
Forex_US_Dollar_Moves_to_Overturn_Four-Month_Down_Trend_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Moves to Overturn Four-Month Down Trend

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0




--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com


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