US Dollar, Yen to Fall if US Jobs Report Tops Expectations

DailyFX

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen are likely to fall if February’s US jobs report tops expectations, boosting risk appetite across financial markets.

Talking Points

  • Dollar to Fall with Japanese Yen if US Jobs Data Surprises to the Upside
  • Chinese Exports Soar, Fueling Risk Sentiment Rise in Asian Trading Hours

All eyes are on February’s US Employment report through the end of the trading week. Consensus forecasts suggest the economy added 165,000 jobs in February, a print broadly in line with the 12-month trend average of 168,000 that ought not to offer much fuel for volatility around financial markets. US economic data has markedly improved relative to expectations since early February however, leaving the door open for an upside surprise.

Such an outcome stands to boost hopes for the resilience of US economic recovery in the face of strengthening fiscal headwinds following the triggering of “sequester” spending cuts last week. That may boost market-wide risk sentiment. Following the removal of the specter of rate cuts following the RBA rate decision earlier this week, such an outcome stands to boost the Australian Dollar as traders flock to the highest yields in the G10 FX space. The Japanese Yen looks vulnerable in this scenario as traders look to finance carry trades in the perennially low-yielding currency. In the context of a recommitment to loose monetary policy from Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen, a similar fate threatens the US Dollar.

The Yen slumped in overnight trade as risk appetite firmed in Asia, pushing stocks higher and encouraging capital flows into yield-seeking trades at the expense of the go-to funding unit. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.7 percent after US Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell and Chinese Exports soared, posting a dramatic 21.8 percent year-on-year increase in February compared with a paltry 8.1 percent increase expected by economists. The reports hinted at firming growth outlooks in the world’s top-two economies and underpinning optimism in regional demand prospects.

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (4Q)

0.0%

-

1.7% (R+)

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity Volume s.a. (QoQ) (4Q)

1.5%

-

2.5% (R-)

23:00

NZD

QV House Price (YoY) (FEB)

6.3%

-

6.2%

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.0%

0.1%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q F)

0.2%

0.2%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.4%

23:50

JPY

Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)

-0.7%

-0.6%

-0.6%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)

-364.8B

-611.5B

-264.1B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)

364.6B

112.2B

114.7B (R+)

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥) (JAN)

-1479.3B

-1512.3B

-567.6B

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (JAN)

-19.9%

31.0%

-199.4%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)

1.9%

-

1.6%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

1.5%

-

1.3%

2:00

CNY

Exports (YoY) (FEB)

21.8%

8.1%

25.0%

2:00

CNY

Imports (YoY) (FEB)

-15.2%

-8.5%

28.8%

2:00

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (FEB)

$15.25B

-$6.90B

$29.15B

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)

-11.8%

-

-5.2%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)

57.7

-

56.5

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)

53.2

-

49.5

5:00

JPY

BOJ Monthly Economic Report (MAR)

-

-

-

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-0.3%

Medium

8:15

CHF

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

-0.3%

-0.3%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB)

-

-0.5%

Low

8:15

CHF

CPI – EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB)

-

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (FEB)

-

3.5%

Low

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)

-1.2%

-1.1%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)

0.4%

0.3%

Medium

11:00

EUR

ECB to Announce Weekly 3yr LTRO Repayment

-

-

High

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3009

1.3162

GBPUSD

1.4960

1.5076

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

For live market updates, visit the DailyFX Real Time News Feed

New to FX? Check out this video for Basic Forex Trading Strategies.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

Rates

View Comments (1)