SG Cross Asset Research
Société Générale economist Brian Jones has the most optimistic forecast for the jobs report on Wall Street for the second month in a row, predicting 175,000 workers were added to nonfarm payrolls in October versus the consensus forecast of 120,000.
Jones doesn't stop at a prediction for how many payrolls were created in October, though. He also predicts exactly how markets will move immediately following the release.
"The SG forecast is above consensus and a positive intraday impact for risky assets is expected if the SG forecast materialises," writes Jones. "We expect [the S&P 500] to move up by 0.4% and the [10-year] USD swap rate to move up by 3 [basis points] in the first half hour after the release."
Interestingly, these two figures are identical to the predictions Jones made in September.
Jones says there is a statistical relationship between the deviation of the actual nonfarm payroll print from the consensus forecast and the market's reaction.
" The relationship between asset changes around the release and the spread NFP versus consensus is measured by a regression (OLS)," says Jones.
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