Weekly Price & Time: Gold Trend Shift Looming

DailyFX

Talking Points

  • Gold breaches important support
  • EUR/USD holds below key upside pivot
  • USD/JPY rebounds of 200-day MA

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

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wpt_trend_shift_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Trend Shift Looming

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has been in consolidation mode below the 8th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3655 for over a week
  • The broader trend bias is higher while above last month’s low near 1.3100
  • A move through 1.3655 is needed to signal the start of another meaningful move higher
  • The middle of next month looks to be an important cycle turn window for the Euro
  • Important support is eyed at 1.3475 and 1.3250, but only a weekly close below 1.3100 turns the broader outlook negative on the Euro

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to initiate tactical long positions in the Euro.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3360

1.3475

1.3560

*1.3655

1.3710

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

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wpt_trend_shift_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Trend Shift Looming

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY closed last week below critical Gann support in the 97.60 area
  • Our broader trend bias is now lower in the exchange rate
  • However, traction under the 7th square root progression of the year’s high 96.60 is needed to re-invigorate immediate downside prospects
  • Some cyclicality is seen over the next couple of weeks that could force a move out of the multi-month consolidation
  • A weekly close back over 98.60 will turn us positive again on USD/JPY.

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Square here

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*96.60

97.55

98.35

*98.60

99.60

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

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wpt_trend_shift_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Trend Shift Looming

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under more downside pressure this week and traded to its lowest level since early July
  • A weekly close below 1292 will shift the broader trend to negative
  • The 1350 area remains an important Gann resitance zone and strength above this area is needed to relieve near-term downside pressures
  • The second half of next week is an important cycle turn window
  • Under 1292 on a weekly closing basis exposes downside attractions at 1248 and 1214

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Will stop out of tactical longs on weekly close below 1292.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1214

*1248

1269

1317

*1350

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

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