The current bull market will turn five this weekend. On Mar 9, 2009, the S&P 500 index touched a low of 676.13; it’s up 177% since then.
The average length of bull markets since 1921 is 62 months, while average gains are 180%. On the other hand, median gain and length are just 115% and 50 months respectively.
Last bull market ended days after it turned five in October 2007. But according to Capital IQ, bull markets have added another 26% gain if they survived for another year after their fifth anniversary.
Most investors expect the market to go up this year and the path of least resistance for US equities is still up, even though this bull market has been the second strongest since World War II (chart from WSJ).
But can this ageing bull maintain its momentum? Are you turning cautious now?
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