What's in Store for Aegerion (AEGR) This Earnings Season? - Analyst Blog
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AEGR is slated to report second-quarter 2015 results on Aug 5.
Aegerion has a mixed track record with the company beating estimates in three of the last four trailing quarters with a negative average earnings surprise of 63.9%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Influencing This Quarter
Although Aegerion may continue to experience issues in Brazil due to quarterly fluctuations in demand for Juxtapid, the drug will remain the growth engine at the company.
Meanwhile, the company is working actively on improving patient experience with the use of the drug. Aegerion is currently in early stages of business in ex-U.S. markets. We expect Aegerion to update on its expansion plans and progress so far.
However, reimbursement challenge for Lojuxta (EU trade name for Juxtapid) in the EU remains an overhang. Although the company received reimbursement approval in Italy, it has yet a long way to go. In France, Aegerion’s dossier already received minor improvement ratings twice by the concerned authority. The company expects a hearing to occur in the third quarter of 2015, but is uncertain about the timing and the final reimbursement decision. The company may shed light on this issue in its second-quarter call.
Meanwhile, Aegerion stated on first-quarter call that it is planning to work on geographic and label expansion of Myalept in future. We expect the company to discus the opportunities for name patient sales of Myalept for generalized lipodystrophy in ex-U.S. markets including Brazil.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model conclusively shows that Aegerion is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat earnings. That is the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 85.19% since the Most Accurate estimate is a loss of 4 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is a loss of 27 cents.
Zacks Rank: Aegerion’s Zacks Rank #3, when combined with a positive ESP, makes us confident of an earnings beat.
We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revision momentum.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Mylan N.V. MYL has an Earnings ESP of +1.15% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 6.
Epizyme, Inc. EPZM has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release second-quarter results on Aug 6.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. INO has an Earnings ESP of +275.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to release second-quarter results on Aug 10.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
MYLAN NV (MYL): Free Stock Analysis Report
AEGERION PHARMA (AEGR): Free Stock Analysis Report
EPIZYME INC (EPZM): Free Stock Analysis Report
INOVIO PHARMAC (INO): Free Stock Analysis Report
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
Zacks Investment Research
