Why real estate investors should focus on overseas events (Part 1 of 6)
The week after the jobs report is typically dull
As a general rule, the week after the jobs report is very data-light. We’re in a dull period, with very little economic data and no important earnings reports. Overseas events will probably move the markets more than anything here will.
The bond market has been reacting strangely to domestic reports lately, which probably mean something international is causing some sort of flight to safety. In other words, while the data this week are probably not market-moving, be on the lookout for volatility.
Economic data this week
Monday, June 9
- No economic data
Tuesday, June 10
- NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- JOLT Job Openings
- Wholesale inventories
- Wholesale sales
Wednesday, June 11
- MBA Mortgage Applications
- Monthly Budget Statement
Thursday, June 12
- Initial jobless claims
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
- Retail sales
- Business inventories
Friday, June 13
- Producer Price Index
- University of Michigan Confidence
Earnings reports this week
Tuesday, June 10
- Ares Capital Management (ARCC)
Impact on mortgage REITs
Mortgage REITs like American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Annaly (NLY) will focus on data that will move the bond market. For them, there’s nothing in the data that’s expected to move markets.
Impact on homebuilders
Builders will primarily focus on the Michigan Consumer Confidence report, as consumer confidence is an important driver of new home demand. They’ll also focus on the JOLTs Job Openings report as well.
Impact on commercial REITs
The most important data for commercial REITs will be retail sales, which affects mall REITs like Simon Property (SPG) and General Growth Properties (GGP). Office REITs like Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) will also focus on the JOLTs job openings report, which signals future hiring trends.
Browse this series on Market Realist:
- Part 2 - Why the latest jobs report was anticlimactic but affected bonds
- Part 3 - Must-know: Why bonds sold off on stronger-than-expected releases
- Part 4 - Must-know: Why mortgage rates rose slightly as bonds sold off