Why Today's Jobless Claims Report Is Unusually Important

Business Insider

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The initial weekly unemployment claims report is one of the most reliable indicators of the economy and the financial markets.

But today's report will be watched more closely than usual.

Why?

The last two reads on the already weak U.S labor market were pretty disappointing, suggesting there may be cracks.

First was the March jobs report, which showed that U.S. companies added a measly 88k jobs during the month.

Second was last week's initial claims report, which showed claims spiked to 385k.  Economists were looking for a reading of 353k.

"In the past ten years excluding 2008-09, jobless claims have risen an average of 20k in the Easter week, versus a centered 7- week average rise of only 1k," wrote UBS's Kevin Cummins about last week's claims report. "This year’s rise was a bit larger. That said, after the weak employment report for March, claims will be especially important to watch for help in determining the future path of payrolls and, through payrolls, the Fed."

The consensus is calling for claims to fall to 360k.  We'll cover the release live on BusinessInsider.com.



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