Was Thursday's large downside reversal yet another one-day wonder? Strength was seen immediately on Friday, cutting into the weekly losses. The daily chart for the major indices all have a "rolling-over" look, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) appearing to be ahead of the S&P 500 (SPX) for a break lower. As well, the news from the Middle East seems to be getting worse by the day -- but, so far, the U.S stock market and economy seem to be turning a blind eye to the potential implications. Crude oil prices, both WTI and Brent, aren't exploding, but have seen pretty good rallies. WTI hit $87.60/barrel at the end of last week from the low $70s just two months ago, while Brent almost reached $92 last week from $77 in early February.

This morning's release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the third, and final, update of 4Q GDP. The update last month indicated 4Q real GDP rose at an annualized 3.2% pace, down from 4.9% growth in 3Q23. The 4Q performance is solid, with contributions from consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government spending. We don't expect a major revision to GDP this morning. Between 1996 and 2022, the average absolute revision to the quarterly percentage change in real GDP was just 30 basis points, according to the BEA. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on durable goods increased 3.2%, despite a decline in motor vehicles and parts. Gross private domestic investment in structures rose 7.5% after an 11.2% increase in 3Q and a 16.1% increase in 2Q. A report from the U.S. Treasury Department attributed the recent surge in construction to spending on manufacturing facilities for computers, electronics, and electrical products (bolstered by the CHIPS Act), adding that these categories have become a dominant component of manufacturing construction after a few decades of relatively small share. On April 25, the BEA will release its advance estimate for 1Q GDP. We expect 1Q24 growth to slow to 2.3%. The March 26 GDPNow forecast for 1Q24 from the Atlanta Fed is 2.1%, with an estimate for 1.9% growth in PCE. Residential fixed investment and intellectual property could make strong contributions to 1Q GDP according to the Nowcast. For the remainder of 2024, we expect GDP growth of 1.3% in 2Q, 1.8% in 3Q, and 2.3% in 4Q. Our full year 2024 estimate is 2.0%. Our 2025 estimate is also 2.0. Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents expect GDP to grow 2.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, and 1.8% in the "longer run," based on the median projections provided at their March meeting.

Target serves as the nation’s sixth-largest retailer, with its strategy predicated on delivering a gratifying in-store shopping experience and a wide product assortment of trendy apparel, home goods, and household essentials at competitive prices. Target’s upscale and stylish image began to carry national merit in the 1990s—a decade in which the brand saw its top line grow threefold to almost $30 billion—and has since cemented itself as a top US retailer. Today, Target operates over 1,950 stores in the United States, generates over $100 billion in sales, and fulfills over 2 billion customer orders annually. The firm’s vast physical footprint is typically concentrated in urban and suburban markets as the firm seeks to attract a more affluent consumer base.

Target Corp. is the second-biggest U.S. discount retailer. It differentiates itself by selling stylish products at reasonable prices. The company has partnerships with an evolving group of designers. Based in Minneapolis, Target ended FY24 with 1,956 stores in the U.S., with a total of 246 million square feet. In January 2015, the company announced its exit from the Canadian market, along with plans to close approximately 130 stores in Canada. Target sold its in-store pharmacies to CVS in December 2015. For the fiscal year ended February 3, 2024, the company had total revenues of $105.8 billion, including approximately $30 billion from Target's own brands. Sales on Target.com represented about 18% of the total in FY24, up from 8.8% in pre-pandemic FY20, 7% in FY19, 5.5% in FY18, and 4.4% in FY17. The company's fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to January 31. Approximately 28% of merchandise sales came from beauty and household essentials, 16% from hardlines, 16% from apparel and accessories, 18% from home products, and 21% from food. Target was moved to the Consumer Staples sector from Consumer Discretionary in 2023.