We wanted to know the current “Top 10” holdings of this fund. What we discovered is that this cannot be done anonymously at American Century, Morningstar or some others we investigated. This is definitely a break from the past. A requirement to do so has a number of negative ramifications to those making an inquiry, among which are the nuisance of email inbox invasion along with potential fraud. There is also the threat to small investors that collection of this information, even if identity is not revealed, can be used by large financial companies to disadvantage small investors, in particular to use their enormous data resources as a means to manipulate this sector.
It appears to us that the Federal Reserve, since they are now investing in the stock markets, is making it a requirement that others financial firms need to provide all financial data, at least of this sort, ancillary to the data they’ve collected by those interested who must reveal their identity. We do NOT allow the storing of Cookies. And even if doing so on a temporary basis, a requirement to register is presented. We know all the arguments presented about Cookies not being a threat to privacy, AND WE DO NOT BELIEVE THEM. We’d rather be wrong to be on the safe side.
So if anyone has a source for this current information, please provide a link. If not, apparently we share the same problem.
Taking June off--see ya USA Independence Day!. Remember above all else, while the market plays out, there is always strong support around 0.00 for BGEIX and there is nothing stopping it from going above 24.66 :).
5.27.16. Don't even consider buying BGEIX over 6--just wait--if it never goes under 6 again, be happy.
In the twelve years between 5/28/2004 and today 5/27/2016, BGEIX has been under 6 on 104 of 3021 trading days. That is 3.4% of trading days. In late May of 2004, gold was under $400 per ounce and BGEIX was still well above 6. In fact, there were 2 days of the 104 under 6 for BGEIX that were in 2008--the rest were in the current period of misery, 2015-2016. Take a look in the charts and confirm, that just about all trading experience that could occur has happened over that 12 year period for BGEIX.
The low was 5.51 on 10/27/08 and that was surpassed by the dividend adjusted low of 5.26 recently. There are no magic numbers for gold or BGEIX--there is only firm support AT zero for EVERYTHING, but at least increase your chances of success by buying this only when it is at extreme lows. Pleasant holiday WE to all!
"The short-term prediction for a decline into this past Friday was rather accurate (smile). We’ll see if this past Friday’s 16-20 index buy signal marked the exact corrective low for the second time this year. Jeff bought gold stocks at the Friday close. Although SKI has been incredibly accurate this year, it is not perfect, and the gold stocks could decline further into the 35-39 index and may even have begun the “horrendous decline” that was described in the previous 321gold SKI Report. The only thing that matters is the sell-stop to manage risk. When the next public SKI Report is published in 3 weeks, it should be obvious whether this new 16-20 index buy signal was validly bullish."--quote from the SKI report at 321 gold
I'm think the only thing that matters to professional gold stock sharks is running those "sell-stops" that were put on Friday--they can certainly see the book. More hostage market talk?? Oh well good luck, anyhow!
5.29.16. The time period 1996-2003 certainly resembles the current performance of BGEIX. The biggest difference I can see is there was much more volatility back then. I would attribute that to gold stocks being the accessible play for most investors. These days there are a proliferation of ETFs that have stolen some of the levered volatility from quaint ole PM stocks.
That doesn't mean BGEIX is "less" dangerous. And also remember that the moonshots in 1999 for BGEIX, that resemble the one double we have already had in BGEIX for 2016, can vanish in a heartbeat. Also remember that BGEIX didn't crater to its final low until late 2000.
So the notion that there is support in any number like $1000 for gold or $ 850, or that there is an ultimate target of $2000 or more is just plain hogwash. After falling out of the current parabola, there is no sense looking to buy very soon. Under 6 for BGEIX looks OK--under the low 5's looks even better and there is no guarantee that we will see under x (number of your choice).
Of course if we never see those lows again, then we have something here entirely different than the hostage market we have had. Nobody really knows and caution is suggested when dealing with the inscrutables of a mature bear mkt! Goood luck and if this runs up more, good for the bulls!
5.26.16. The precedent, over the past eight years, is unequivocal. In a real rally, precious metals prices are not deterred from rising via Compulsive Liars simply repeating the same lie, over and over and over. It is only in the realm of Hostage Markets where (supposedly) these markets “react” to the same lie (and same Liars) which they had previously ignored, for several years.
A Fed-head talks, and precious metals markets fall. Readers are invited to call this paradigm of fraud anything that they want. But the one thing they can’t call this is “a rally”--Jeff Nielson
5.25.16. To break the world monetary system, that will ONLY take place with a rising dollar. But with a declining outcome thereafter. You are just missing that part that FIRST the dollar must soar to screw up the world to create the change in the monetary system and that illogical proposition is in fact what makes it happen. Forget about petro-dollars. They are history. ..
Don’t worry. Just go with the flow. It’s happening fast. Just let go off the old-world theories. The reserve status of the dollar cannot be changed by pricing oil in even rubles or yuan. The reserve status is created by the fact BIG MONEY can park in US debt. It cannot park in European debt which remains in chaos outside of Germany. Britain, Canada, Australia are too small, Japan is too restrictive, and China as well as Russia are not quite ready for prime time. The debt has to turn belly-up in the fish bowl to change reserve status. It is not even something the USA, China, or Russia can decree.--M Armstrong
5.24.16. Gold at the bottom of its recent range is a topic on the Traders Talk Commodity Board website. There is an interesting chart there showing the average gold price and the Fed Funds rate for many years back. I would link of course but impossible on Yahoo message boards as all linked messages are deleted.
While the message here is something entirely different, that gold can rise even when the Fed Funds rate is going up, the unintended message is that gold's average price may be following interest rates in a somewhat scary correlation and that all assets and Fed Funds rates, for that matter have strong support around zero :)
5,21,16. I would consider BGEIX again under 6 and ACITX under 9.5 and HDGE under 10--til then it is safer in cash while holding a small miner position if the bull keeps chugging. Doubtful with the hanging man on the BGEIX weekly, the DXY surge and the speculators reaching for DUST to hedge their big gold bets, but anything is possible.
5.17.16. Ratio update (based on the weekly Gold:BGEIX chart)
We plunged from a high of 205.52 on the ratio in November 2015 to 116.27 in April 2016--possibly one of the sharpest plunges in history and exceeding my December 2015 forecast of 130 by a great deal. After not reaching 30 on the 2 week RSI index, since 2003, we have been under 30 for about a month. The USD chart at finviz is interesting--the commercial shorts had been lessening and are now they are turning more short. This happened in 2014 and hearkened and big move up in ole Uncle Bucky.
5.18.16--back to watchin' the grass grow. Looks like a quiet summer of watching the Gold:BGEIX ratio climb again. I'm down to 13% allocated in PM related including BGEIX in the AM Century Funds (retirement). Most of the rest is cash now.
Two big things--The US Dollar index has what looks like a bullish engulfing candle for May--this seem to be pointing to a rising dollar in coming months, perhaps over the 100 level on its index. Certainly significant for anti-US dollar investments like BGEIX and ACITX , as well as ASIOX, both of which I closed out on Tuesday, May 17.
The volume in DUST (leveraged anti-PM ETF) was amazing yesterday 5.18.16. This shows the full extent of the bullish bets by speculators in gold and related investments and this reach for a hedge shows how much will be unwound in the next few months. As all of this tends to overshoot, a move toward 200 on the Gold:BGEIX ratio is not out of the question and remember a 200 reading there would result from a gold price of 1000 and a BGEIX price of 5, which would be another low.
I could be wrong and I am keeping a minimal amount of the miners and PM related, for me anyway, as I stated above. But I wouldn't touch BGEIX again until under 6, which may be soon, if the US dollar gets cranking, or may be never. We shall see.
Trashury Benghazis ole folks. "Here’s the bigger picture: The PBGC, the nation’s safety net for failed pension, has total assets of about $1.8 billion and liabilities of $44.2 billion for multiemployer plans such as the Central States fund.
A Central States failure would not only substantially reduce benefits for every worker, retiree and survivor in the Teamsters plan, but wipe out the safety net for all Americans. Among the Central States pensioners at heightened risk are the 270,000 pensioners already targeted for cuts as well as about 130,000 others who had been sheltered due to age or infirmity. And that’s why Treasury’s blanket rejection of the Central States’ application was imprudent, incorrect, and inappropriate."
From Marketwatch--getting started before Hitlery even gets in! Banksta Gangstas--all Politicians from the same crowd.
5.11.16. Selling another $25K of BGEIX today. Still very bullish long term and still have plenty along with other miner related in the brokerage to take advantage of more extended move, but I have my doubts right now. No clue on the future--volatility is indeed increasing.
5.9.16. "When the "melt-up" phase ends, history indicates that the decline should be quite horrendous and go back down to a 92-96 index sell signal that ends the 92-96 index's bull market buy signal from January. And then another rise is supposed to occur because the very long-term indices are bullish. Long-termers can remain bullish, but very few people will have the stomach or the desire to remain long during a major decline (that should exceed most analysts' expectations) when the melt-up phase ends and the gold stocks decline into a 92-96 index sell signal over months."--Jeff Kern from the 321gold site.
5.6.16. Fascinating chart on the *day divides the night* blog on tumblr, concerning the Gold to Monetary Base ratio--we have a long long way to go, in this bull run, regardless of any short term corrections.