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Neuralstem, Inc. (CUR)

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4.45-0.10 (-2.20%)
At close: 4:00PM EDT
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  • Price projections – back of the napkin

    When the stock had only the ALS the peak market cap was about $300m. We saw about 100% dilution between the last few rounds since then. More or less each $1 in CUR is $10m in market cap. For the stock to make it back to the “old highs” on a post dilution basis would be $30 / share.

    One scenario is a deal in which the new investor pays for the P3 trial costs in exchange for 85% of the revenue on the 1st B. Maybe 93% on revenues beyond $1b.

    Big pharma who own the drug and sell it might have that 6x sales. For this company, who are going to do a distribution deal, I think 1.5x sales is more likely. If the drug reaches $1b, CUR will net $150m, times 10 for an earnings multiple puts the company at $1.5B valuation on $150m income, or $150 / share. I don’t think a price to sales of 6 works here since CUR would be a royalty partner.

    How long till we are at $150 / share? Who knows, 3 years? So from where we are today in a trajectory to $150 it’s reasonable to assume with a great P2 release, the stock should beat its “old highs” and might land around $45 / share on its way to much higher numbers.

    On a binary event with one side being $1 other side $45, feels like stock should be $10 to $15 before the announcement. I know, I know, it can’t get there. Till one day someone buys in and we jump, and jump, and jump, and then you’re there (it can happen quick, like in a few hours or few days). I’ll be taking some off the table as we go in case it doesn’t go well but that’s my plan and I’m stickin to it.

    Also just for an interesting splash of Tabasco to this… I’ve spent hours and hours reading what people say about NSI-189 on this longecity. There is a community there who claim to use the drug (bootleg version) and have been doing so for several years with “pretty positive” feedback. The info is totally from an unreliable source, that being said….


    Good luck all

  • Last patient done dosing
  • And there's Rich Daly with another insider buy (7,500 shares at $4.00). That, plus his comments in the press release . . .
  • CEO added 7500 shares yesterday
  • Does anybody have any estimate on how the stock price will increase if the Phase II trial is successful. This stock was quite pricey a couple of years ago. I wonder if we are talking about going back to that level.
  • Stock loan

    Also - If you have an Interactive Brokers account you can ask them how to loan out your stock. I'm long a decent amount stock and a good chunk of it is lent out at today's rate of 55%. It was higher a couple months back. You split the proceeds 50/50 with them but if these short sellers want to short it that bad might as well try to take advantage.
  • 4k opening volume the day after this PR. the market is broken. hopefully things pick up as the day moves on.
  • The PR was well stated, and reasonably optimistic. HOWEVER. Let's not get too frothy. The shape of the first partnership will tell us a lot. I hope Daly just negotiates MDD only. If that's so, I could see $500M upfront and a double digit royalty. Less upfront but better back end with a 2035 MDD patent expiry. Other disease indications need patents and clinical trial work. We will be golden, but share price will build slower than thought, IMHO. A $1B market cap is still a good number and getting bought out totally would be disappointing, but that's about all we'd expect to get, for all the IP, at this stage. Shareholder meeting question: what's the poison pill defense situation right now?
  • Anyone having any luck communicating with IR lately ?? --- I'm not having any at all...
  • Blocking ask set up at 4.45. All to ensure the bid for 10K at 4.37 will get filled. MMs in total control. Anyone want stock at 4.38? You are all but guaranteed to get filled. MMs don't even have to hide their intentions here, but a retail buyer can play along.
  • I don't know what the results of the trial will be (again, my hesitancy on that comes exclusively from seeing several placebo arms outperform expectations, but also knowing that if NSI-189 can accomplish statistical significance regardless of the strength of the placebo arm, this stock will explode)

    But it's a pretty sure bet that the stock will go back to at least $5 before results are reported. So that's a quite strong potential for AT LEAST an approx. 25% (or greater) from here - even before results (a level that was already well established, so not just speculation of what it could reach before topline results are reported, but rather speculation that the stock will recover to a fairly pro-longed pre-results level, while looking at the possible spike back into the 6's - also already reached - as a bonus, which would make for a 50% gain from here).

    I know folks have speculated that $10 before results seems reasonable. But although I saw that kind of speculation a few years ago leading up to crucial clinical results, I don't see that as much these days.

    Yet a price target that has already been reached (and had been fairly well established)? That, I feel confident in speculating on.
  • Options

    For what its worth the options are too cheap. The November options in particular have the same implied volatility as the August, June months. Options for a month with such an announcement should pretty much be higher across the board. As we get close the date expect some gamblers to move those prices higher. Disclosure long a lot of calls already.
  • I am considering buying some options. Is anyone here an option guru. I need to feel better before I jump into it.
  • It's great to see the CEO mirror back the confidence that I have and many of us have for NSI-189.

    On the Joe Rogan podcast a while back, Dr. Rhonda Patrick (biochemist) talked about how the current depression treatments simply don't work for the vast majority of the patient population. If I remember correctly, she guestimated something like 70%. She also mentioned that MDD was reclassified at some point in the last number of years to include just about everyone that has depression. She went on to mention that the path was wide open for some clever company to come in under an MDD trial classification and essentially take over the depression market. Is Neuralstem going to be that company? With the dosing done, the countdown has officially started on the way to that answer. IMO this trial is large enough to determine efficacy, so I think we'll know pretty much where we stand in the next 3-4 months.

    That said, I have two concerns. My first and biggest has been that they'll mortgage NSI-189 simply to fund the company and get back to focusing on stem cell therapies. Having Daly captaining the ship instead of Garr, goes a long way to allaying that concern. I'm confident he knows what we have here, and I think he's too smart and experienced to give away the farm.

    My second concern is that the long term follow up results, i.e. reporting on how the patients did months after they stopped dosing, will open the door for a short attack. AF and/or others may engage in fomenting. !!!NSI-189 long term results worsen over time!!! The company and it's investors should expect it and be prepared. It doesn't matter how asinine the story. I've seen it too many times (the latest being PLX). That said, strong results will go a long way towards lessening any blows or perhaps even keep the bears at bay.

    IMO the company will either descend into the abyss or start its ascent towards the stratosphere based on these results. After many years, the time of reckoning is nigh. GLTA
  • When stock acting like that going down 40% in 2 days and coming right back you know for sure that a MAJOR POSITIVE NEWS IS I THE PIPE LINE
  • Researchers at UC Irvine concluded: "...NSI-189 provided treatment benefits in the reversal of radiation-induced cognitive deficits".
  • If they partner with Pfizer will it be for an individual disorder or the blanket drug.
  • are we halted or what? man this has gotten boring
  • Just read the most recent 10Q. No debt and funding until the beginning of 3Q18, i.e. July 1st 2018 at least.

    They have a solid pipeline and are decently diversified. Frankly, I am not sure why this is not trading at $10. Within the next 9-months, I could see prices ranging between $20 and $52. Simply assigning a 10% probability to each of their potential services, which have all reached some phase of research, implies a $1 billion valuation.

    The stock's lack of visibility at this juncture is its only impediment.

    Another key point to note is all of the knowledge base they acquired during the ALS trials. That body of work alone is probably worth north of $1 billion. This is a life changing stock, if one has the means to simply hold onto it and wait.