To state the obvious, CUR appears to be headed down to $4 on technical trading. Probably not much lower though. Almost a guaranteed double to pre-data release in Q3, but seems there's not much interest in a less than 6 month doubling of money.
That is disappointing to see Dr. Catherine Sohn resign from the BOD. Looks like she may have had a conflict. due to her taking a position as Director of Business Development at BioAxone. From an April 20, 2017 press release announcing her joining BioAxone: "BBioAxone BioSciences is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing innovative drugs to restore neurological function for patients with Spinal Cord Injuries (SCI) and other malformations in central nervous system with unmet medical needs. Led by a team of scientists renowned for their work on axon regeneration and neuronal signaling pathways, BioAxone has a pioneering SCI drug currently in a Phase 2b/3 clinical trial with Vertex, and is positioned to move other candidates into clinical trials. For more information, visit www.bioaxonebio.com."; Frankly, seems like a step down for woman who was a high-level muckety muck at GlaxoSmithKline plc where "she was a member of the global executive team and senior vice president of worldwide business development and strategic alliances in the company’s $6 billion consumer health division." Any thoughts?
I am considering buying some options. Is anyone here an option guru. I need to feel better before I jump into it. Thanks
4 weeks from today is the Annual Meeting - anyone have an idea as to whether it will be GOOD, BAD, or INDIFFERENT?
Blocking ask set up at 4.45. All to ensure the bid for 10K at 4.37 will get filled. MMs in total control. Anyone want stock at 4.38? You are all but guaranteed to get filled. MMs don't even have to hide their intentions here, but a retail buyer can play along.
Price projections – back of the napkin
When the stock had only the ALS the peak market cap was about $300m. We saw about 100% dilution between the last few rounds since then. More or less each $1 in CUR is $10m in market cap. For the stock to make it back to the “old highs” on a post dilution basis would be $30 / share.
One scenario is a deal in which the new investor pays for the P3 trial costs in exchange for 85% of the revenue on the 1st B. Maybe 93% on revenues beyond $1b.
Big pharma who own the drug and sell it might have that 6x sales. For this company, who are going to do a distribution deal, I think 1.5x sales is more likely. If the drug reaches $1b, CUR will net $150m, times 10 for an earnings multiple puts the company at $1.5B valuation on $150m income, or $150 / share. I don’t think a price to sales of 6 works here since CUR would be a royalty partner.
How long till we are at $150 / share? Who knows, 3 years? So from where we are today in a trajectory to $150 it’s reasonable to assume with a great P2 release, the stock should beat its “old highs” and might land around $45 / share on its way to much higher numbers.
On a binary event with one side being $1 other side $45, feels like stock should be $10 to $15 before the announcement. I know, I know, it can’t get there. Till one day someone buys in and we jump, and jump, and jump, and then you’re there (it can happen quick, like in a few hours or few days). I’ll be taking some off the table as we go in case it doesn’t go well but that’s my plan and I’m stickin to it.
Also just for an interesting splash of Tabasco to this… I’ve spent hours and hours reading what people say about NSI-189 on this longecity. There is a community there who claim to use the drug (bootleg version) and have been doing so for several years with “pretty positive” feedback. The info is totally from an unreliable source, that being said….
And there's Rich Daly with another insider buy (7,500 shares at $4.00). That, plus his comments in the press release . . .
CEO added 7500 shares yesterday
Does anybody have any estimate on how the stock price will increase if the Phase II trial is successful. This stock was quite pricey a couple of years ago. I wonder if we are talking about going back to that level.
Also - If you have an Interactive Brokers account you can ask them how to loan out your stock. I'm long a decent amount stock and a good chunk of it is lent out at today's rate of 55%. It was higher a couple months back. You split the proceeds 50/50 with them but if these short sellers want to short it that bad might as well try to take advantage.
4k opening volume the day after this PR. the market is broken. hopefully things pick up as the day moves on.
The PR was well stated, and reasonably optimistic. HOWEVER. Let's not get too frothy. The shape of the first partnership will tell us a lot. I hope Daly just negotiates MDD only. If that's so, I could see $500M upfront and a double digit royalty. Less upfront but better back end with a 2035 MDD patent expiry. Other disease indications need patents and clinical trial work. We will be golden, but share price will build slower than thought, IMHO. A $1B market cap is still a good number and getting bought out totally would be disappointing, but that's about all we'd expect to get, for all the IP, at this stage. Shareholder meeting question: what's the poison pill defense situation right now?
Any thoughts out there on bcli?
Anyone having any luck communicating with IR lately ?? --- I'm not having any at all...
Do you think this thing is done selling? Showing us a buy signal now on CUR? have you guys heard of awe-someSTOCKS. i started receiving their allerts and so far i am happy.
I don't know what the results of the trial will be (again, my hesitancy on that comes exclusively from seeing several placebo arms outperform expectations, but also knowing that if NSI-189 can accomplish statistical significance regardless of the strength of the placebo arm, this stock will explode)
But it's a pretty sure bet that the stock will go back to at least $5 before results are reported. So that's a quite strong potential for AT LEAST an approx. 25% (or greater) from here - even before results (a level that was already well established, so not just speculation of what it could reach before topline results are reported, but rather speculation that the stock will recover to a fairly pro-longed pre-results level, while looking at the possible spike back into the 6's - also already reached - as a bonus, which would make for a 50% gain from here).
I know folks have speculated that $10 before results seems reasonable. But although I saw that kind of speculation a few years ago leading up to crucial clinical results, I don't see that as much these days.
Yet a price target that has already been reached (and had been fairly well established)? That, I feel confident in speculating on.
For what its worth the options are too cheap. The November options in particular have the same implied volatility as the August, June months. Options for a month with such an announcement should pretty much be higher across the board. As we get close the date expect some gamblers to move those prices higher. Disclosure long a lot of calls already.