Sometime in the near future we will get a dividend announcement. It should be very revealing concerning the future direction of the business. Currently, CYD has $600+ million in cash and given the prospect of a very good year, the cash will increase to over $700 without a dividend payment. What is the company going to do with all this cash? They don't seem to want to make acquisitions. They won't take cash dividends preferring stock instead. They refuse to buy back stock. So? Fortunately, they have a partner in the City of Yulin that could use the cash. My guess is that the City will exert enough pressure on them at some point to declare a large special dividend. If HLA continues to take stock, the dilution will be large but so will the cash payment to us.
Dividend 90 cents paid out July 13. See today's pr.
China Yuchai International Lim NYSE $CYD Correlation Histogram
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks May-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is -0.3 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
Trading Action- I have owned CYD for 10 years. Bought my first position back in 2007. I bought a lot of it through 2010 and then I stopped. I currently hold 21000 shares, sold 2000 at $18.84. Over the years I have experience lots of ups and down and collected lots of dividends. On balance it has been a great investment. We are currently on an up cycle, we will see if the run has more legs as the year progresses. It looks like it should but with this stock you never know.......
I say this because to me the price action is completely not intuitive!. It goes up when you think it should go down and at times like this it goes down when you think it should roar higher. Because it is thinly traded, it is vulnerable to price manipulation. It is my firm belief as I watch the price action over the last 10 years that this stock is controlled, probably by HLA. They have the most to gain or lose by what happens. They are not necessarily interested in seeing the price go much higher if they are looking to accumulate more stock at lower prices. For instance if they take their dividend as stock instead of cash, they don't want a higher stock price especially when the price is set for dividend payout. And of course they control the dividend payout every year to suit their needs against what the company requires. We are at that time of year when all this will occur. I always look forward to my CYD dividend every year and I am always struck by the odd trading action as we approach the ex div date and the dividend price setting timeframe. Just my 2 cents. I have never seen CYD get close to what I thing is fair value. I own most of my stock below $10, so its easy to hang on. We will see if this year will be different, but I don't think so!
While the reaction to CYD's earnings is suprising, a couple of points need to be made. It is not written in stone that the dividend announcement and the dividend payment dates remain the same. Over the years, the timing of both have varied a lot. I would also add that the termination of talks to purchase the real estate operation is a disappointment to all of us. The infusion of $70 million in cash would have been most welcome and there would have been the possibility of a special dividend.
Tightening over... Chinese adding liquidity... over on zerohedge... "The huge cash injection followed comments from Chinese officials in recent days which hinted they are getting concerned that recent moves to tighten market regulation have caused too much disruption. As a reminder, in recent weeks money market rates and yields on corporate bonds had all shot up to multi-year highs. The real reason may be simpler: with a major leadership shuffle due later this year, the central bank is not taking even the smallest chances of turmoil in the banking sector. and as such admitted that - once again like in 2013 - its posturing to delever the world's most leveraged financial system was just that. The WSJ has more:
We'll, that was a wierd day. I just read the cc transcript to check if I missed something on the call. Nope. Hoh was positive about continuing growth. I thought it was a good call. Shah's guy was an idiot. They always whine about wanting a share buyback. Hey shah how many times does the company have to tell you they don't do buybacks. You would think with all those shares you hold... you would want the stock to go up, instead of being someone's meme. If you're looking for a company to use cash to buy back shares... this ain't it. So for those... they moved on, again. They come and they go. About buybacks... Buffet said the other day that he isn't using Berkshire massive cash holding for a buyback. He'd rather use it to buy an investment. His partner Munger said Chinese stocks are cheap right now and a good buy. Jeff Gundlach said the other day that emerging markets are a better play than US stocks right now. CYD is in a very competitive sector and they're growing. That's impressive. Dividend is coming. That was quite clear when Hoh responded to shah.
1q17 EPS .89 No mention of dividend... yet. Maybe they want to give a one two punch pr, which would be smart. Lots of cash on hand. Hoh seems to suggest on and off road truck sales will continue to be positive. Buses still sluggish. But that's ok because clearly better profit margins in trucks. Be interesting to hear how off road will be doing going forward. More from Hoh on cc @8 am.
Get in for some more. This is just shake up. No cloud. The big owners don't want the stock to go up. They want to keep the choice of buyout and put it on chinese stock market.
Downward manipulation started immediately at 17.38. CYD is headed way down again
is it the shah of iran who owns 10%....he was very savy art collector...
The report is great given Chinese New Year is with the 1st quarter so sales are affected by more time for holidays and margin by bonus to employees. I would think 2nd quarter should be even better so $4 earning for the year is quite reasonable. Today's trading is ugly and scary, considering the nice report. The fundamentals are just too strong so there is only one thing to do which is to hold.
Anyone interested in the fact that Shah capital has a HUGE stake, possibly up to 10% of shares outstanding, right when that pile of cash showed up? It's not like it's a secret: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CYD/holders?p=CYD Might just be a coincidence.
Anyone has a guess on eps and dividend? I think these guys earn north of $3 this year and there is $14 in cash on the books.
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No mention of dividend. What is the management doing? Very disappointing.
Cummins (CMI) reported 1q17 earnings today 5/2. One take away from press release... "* Strong international revenue growth, primarily in China, more than offset sales declines in North America due to lower commercial truck production."