Hard to get a read on the stock direction. It's bouncing all over the place. Never seen this type of action before.
Andre: Yes, you're very shrewd -- except for one thing: If you were a fund manager you would have been short DECK, and would be losing a fortune. Why else would your posts be so negative?
I checked all the previous analyst and news articles concerning valuation for a buyout. Some had 9.25x2018 EBITDA, 13.21 x 2018 ROD etc. Well, based on today's share price of around $66, stock seems over-valued by 15-20%. Not sure who will be buying this at this price but guess we'll see. They've been searching for a strategic option after retaining a investment banker for 3+ months now and still no word. Short interest may cause a run up short term but that only gives a better entry point to short it.
Nordstom, JC Penney's, Macy's are all suffering from declining sales. My resesrch indicates DECK will have the same issue. On top of that, the UGG brand is facing serious margin pressure and multiple discounted items. I'm venturing to say a 15% downturn in sales vs. previous year along with increased inventory.
Andre, I am really surprised that you did not short DECK at $68.26. Really surprised..
Koolaburra is cannibalizing the main UGG brand. There's no differentiation from the two products and all DECK has done is water down their own brand plus Koolaburra, which used to be a $200+ shoe price to below $100. Unbelievable... management sucks.
Anyone out there???? I feel so lonely... I'm so alone. I'm going back to the AZO board.
What goes up will come back down.....take the profits and wait for the pull back
The board is awfully quiet. Anyone else out there? 36 hours to ER and there are no commenters.... strange.
I stopped by to check on this house made of straws held together by the hope of a sale. Once earnings get released this one goes up in flames.
Although Deckers Brands confirmed this week that a possible sale is at least one of the options that the company is currently mulling, several market watchers are doubtful that the firm’s once “it brand” has what it takes to lure a viable strategic buyer.
“We don’t believe a strategic buyer would be interested in Deckers given the state of the Ugg brand, which is far less healthy now as compared to 2010,” wrote Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP analyst Sam Poser on Wednesday. “A financial buyer is likely valuing Deckers with the unrealistic premise that profitability can be restored to 2011 levels,” Poser wrote. “In our view, it would be very difficult to restore such profitability. The Ugg brand is now overdistributed, and innovation has been lacking. … A major overhaul by an exceptionally talented management team is needed, [and] private equity’s track record in managing retail businesses has been poor.”
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Make sure you sell this stock. Bound to go down as predicted from my last post.
Time to short this stock. Shot up based possible buyout but will tank like the last time this happened.
The last time DECK did something like this it blew up. Ive been struggling with this stock lately. Some of my other trades have been from awesomestock-s which are working out pretty well.
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0.4 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stock
Ugg's men's products do not appear to be doing as well as women. Last holiday one or 2 skus of men's boots showed up at local Marshal's. This holiday many different men's clothing items have started to show up at local TJ Maxx and Marshal outlets. The most shocking item was the one I actually bought. 28.00 for a pair of m grant slippers. On the bright side the only women's items to appear to be fashion outliers that had no reason to sell well at retail.
In the bright side it seems as though the Hoka brand is getting some traction and could help drive sales a little in the spring and the summer.
The hedge fund guy said just the Uggs brand is worth $2B. This is easily a $90 stock, IMO.
This is amazing opportunity for short entry point. B.S. rally based on BS price. Who said there is no free lunch?