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Ferrellgas Partners, L.P. (FGP)


NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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5.60+0.03 (+0.54%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
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  • Let’s go to the single most important statement the Tag Team (Foo, Mia & James) continue to avoid and I will answer for them. “One cold winter” will add $400 to $700 million in additional propane sales. Those are “high profit” sales that can turn this company around in “one year.” Statistically I ask the Tag Team how many cold winters have Ferrell, Amerigas and Suburban had over the last 25 years and how many hundreds of millions did each winter add to each company’s bottom line? Since the Tag Team reads the annual reports they should know the answer… simple math….and that’s the fatal flaw in their leader (Foo's) calculations. It’s an important part of the way MLP’s operate…. their modus operandi. In good years the MLP's save money to pay future years dividends, loans and buy businesses… or real-estate. FGP (Amerigas & Suburban) have been successfully doing it that way since… what… 1994?
  • Again, the recovery of this company is dependent upon three things… cutting expenses, low interest rates and a "cold winter" in the northern half of the US this year or the next…. which the short Tag Team (Foo, James and Mia) refuse to talk about. Unlike many MLP's Ferrell’s fee's are added “on top” of material costs… in this case propane. Making this an excellent defensive trade as the economy tanks later this year. Smart traders look for defensive stocks providing safety, dividend (FGP 7%)and growth potential (FGP $10 to $12 share in 2017/18 ) to protect the long term value of their energy stock portfolio.
  • If Foo, James and Mia want to be negative and suggest shorting FGP, let them. The best thing is to ignore them. Without individuals auguring with them they will just go away, looking for someone else to antagonize. If you are a supporter of FGP and plan to hold the stock for at least the next 18-24 months, nothing Foo, James and Mia says really amounts to anything. IMO, the only things to pay attention to would be statement and reports by FGP officials, professional analyst that actively follow FGP, and the buy/sell actions of major shareholders. FGP had been good to me for many years and I’m made a good deal of money trading them. FGP may be down now but I believe, with the same management that made the company great before they can once again bring FGP back to greatness.
  • Anyone nervous the quarterly distribution announcement isn't out yet? It's never been later than 5/24 as long as I can tell.
  • WAA is un-muted, couldn't help myself. If something is being said about me, I need to respond. First of all, I posted on the old Yahoo! board in 2013 that the valuation made no sense, I'm not a "Johnny come lately". As I've said numerous times, my mistake was timing the collapse, I thought it would happen in 2014 or 2015. Bridger just accelerated the crash.

    2nd, I don't believe for 1 second that WAA has any family ties to the SEC or that he even knows what the acronym stands for. He's the guy that posts fake options tranches and then accused me of having positions in them, just reeks of low IQ.
  • My two cents: FUBAR was absolutely correct in his 2016 forecast on FGP. Long shareholders took a hit late last year while shorts made a killing as FGP absorbed the bad news. Fast forward a year. Different ballgame. Loyal longs (and FGP employees) hang on with a lower payout as new speculators, including many well established investment firms (and others like me), enter to earn a healthy dividend (tax free for most), while betting FGP will survive with a significant improvement in share value - a worthy bet if it even doubles to $10, possibly even more!

    FGP's 2017 environment has all kinds of pros and cons for skilled analysts like FUBAR and James... AND the professional analysts hooked up with all those investment firms betting on recovery. Hey, they too track this conversation and they too know about the management subtleties of national energy firms and MLP debt rollover vs. cash flow. I respect THEIR big picture so I'm willing to wait a year or two while making a decent return. 2017 Shorts must be playing a very tight game to be spewing disproportionate invective and bad press on FGP. Regardless, life is good.
  • Buy at the point of maximum pessimism!!
  • Smart traders look for defensive stocks providing safety, dividend (FGP 7%)and growth potential (FGP $10 to $12 share in 2017/18 ) to protect the long term value of their energy stock portfolio.
  • Who is Foo?
  • I just found out how WAA...OG plans to rescue FGP.

    He's got family members on the FOMC, and with just one phone call from WAA, they will drop the rate straight to zero!!!

    He's got a team of Voodoo Witch Doctors on retainer. Right now they are busy conjuring up a gang of Golem mud people to replace regular FGP employees and reduce their payroll cost to zero.

    And on WAA's mark, those witch doctors will start a new ice age.

    Such genius! Why didn't we think of all this?
  • A short seller's view of the SEC by Phoo.

    On all of my short plays, the notion of the SEC frequently gets brought up by the Bagholders who believe their stock losses are somehow the short sellers fault. I find this funny because my short thesis typically revolves around numbers that don't add up, or catching management being dishonest (both occurred here). Therefore, if the SEC did an investigation, it would probably confirm my thesis and crater the stock price. Probably not what the Bagholder intended. I welcome SEC investigations with open arms!!
  • I have sold my position in FGP and have taken a small loss...but big enough to hurt. With SPH release of earnings recently and their far miss of estimates it does not look good for the quarterly results for FGP. Since the last release of earnings for FGP the % of institutions holding the stock has declined to below 6% and the short positions have increased. I also find it funny that Jamex (the company that owes FGP money) is also a major stock holder at around 10 million shares. I will be watching the quarterly results to see how FGP used the money they borrowed to pay for the revolving credit that they were supposed to payoff. I also find it interesting that many of the board of directors were willing to buy the stock like crazy at $20+ a share but only one is buying at the 1/3+ price of $6/share. Though it is interesting that the loan to pay for the credit line payoff was offered to a select group of people and is secured. Not that I want the company to fail but something doesn't smell right. Mr. Ferrell mentioned that he had two objectives... 1) increase dividend payout 2) lower debt.

    I know that agreements were recently made to limit payout to 40 million a year.... so no foreseeable dividend increase for a while. And I am not seeing debt being lowered and will look for this in this next quarter results.

    My question is.... Is this company being setup for a bankruptcy takeover? Like what they have done in the past with Jamex?

    I am not savy enough to be a short... but hoping to learn the ropes. FUBAR can you offer any advice?
  • Here’s the way I view FGP from the wagon on which I ride. ------------------ #1.--- All MLP’s operate basically the same way and there’s a hundred or more listed on the stock exchanges operating in the same manner as FGP… and their CFO’s & CEO’s don’t always tell the truth … nor do the fortune 500 CFO’s & CEO’s…. nor doe s the lying fool the Republicans elected President . ----------------- #2.--- Foo would still be waiting for lighting to strike FGP if it wasn’t for the Bridger screw up. Otherwise FGP’s dividend…. if the warm winters continue…. “MIGHT”… might have suffered a $ .50 or $1 cut… and they would have kept rolling right along. So let’s call it what it really was for Foo and other short sellers…. a major unforeseen negative event that impacted FGP’s balance sheet. Had nothing to do with Foo’s brain power unless he’s a former Bridger accounting employee or had insider information. -------------------- #3.—The whole recovery of this company is dependent upon three things… cutting expenses, low interest rates and a cold winter in the northern half of the US this year or next. That’s what were all betting for or against…right? And…. FSP has great middle management, loyal employee’s working retail, home office, driving delivery/route trucks (Rhino). And….I’m willing to bet since James Ferrell build this billion dollar company from scratch he’s worth a lot more $$$$$ (that automatically makes him smarter) then any long or short posting on this board and he can turn this company around.
  • Do you think this thing is done selling? Showing us a buy signal now on FGP? I started receiving notifications from awesom-eSTOCKS the other week and so far they have presented interesting new trade ideas.
  • Two new mutual funds and institutions added FGP to their portfolio...Van Eck added 643,150 shares and Arrowpoint added 500,000 shares in March 2017. Guess that explains some of the April/March 2017 volume... obviously the reason they bought all that stock is because they expect FGP to go under and love to waste money???? Right?????
  • The quarterly distribution announcement is due today, It's fell on either 5/22 or 5/24 for the last several years. I have a limit order on $5.00 puts
  • I muted WAA so if they continue to post here, I won't be seeing it. I had to draw the line at the fake options tranches and institutional investors, all that nonsense creates more work for me. I think it might have been a bot anyway.
  • "God help all of us"...James & Foo... the tag team short sellers have muted me! Meaning everyone else can see me...but they can't...... I'll have to think about that one for awhile?
  • Haven't stopped by in awhile. Looks like there is a new pumptard who I shall refer to henceforth as GO...AWAY.

    Phoo, I didn't realize you had the power to manipulate the unit price. Impressive!
  • I'm curious about the psychology of Bagholding so I wanted to pose a question about the events of last spring going into June. As you may recall, Reuters wrote an article in May 2016 which claims that domestic oil deliveries to Monroe Energy ended in January 2016. Yet in June 2016, on the quarterly conference call, management claimed that they would still earn $100 million EBITDA for the year from Bridger Logistics. So my question is, when the shorts pointed this out, did you think they were lying? Or did you not know enough about the business to understand the situation? Or was it both, you didn't understand plus you thought shorts were lying?