GNVC is currently selling for less than .297 times the price of XON, which is up substantially today. Anyone interested in owning XON would be wise to buy GNVC now, which will also get you rights to any money paid by Novartis in the 36 months after the XON acquisition is completed.
There only is one legitimate lawsuit out there if any others are aware of - James Hoose (major GNVC shareholder) has sued GNVC for now basicly hiding and not disclosing fully for the XON buyout. Anyone have any more information on this lawsuit? Unbelievable that we are getting less than $10 mil for the company when you subtract out the GNVC cash and physical assets. Like I said I have no trust in Swirsky. I think this is best for GNVC employess and screw the shareholders.
Merger is getting closer. Here's a copy of the prospectus I found under XON that has the language, but dates are not shown.
I would expect that by early May we should be notified of when the next quarterly results will be posted, and hopefully a webcast. At that time I think we ought to learn the status of the move to XON, or if their is an alternative to doing it.
The two stocks generally track one another, but occasionally their are divergences in both directions. On occasion you can actually purchase GNVC for less than .297 times the price of XON. Anyone interested in owning XON ought to by GNVC at that time as you'll not only get the XON, you'll gain perhaps $1 a share of GNVC if the Novartis hearing trial goes to Phase 2B within 36 months of the merger date.
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When will GNVC stock convert to XON?
Have I missed something. GNVC is currently trading dramatically higher than the .297 times XON's price. Unless GNVC is either renegotiating or dropping the agreement with XON this trading pattern is not making sense.
I had not seen the Novartis change until I noted it here. If I understand it, are they speaking of just the Phase 1 portion of the trial, the Phase 1/2, which proceeds doing a Phase 2B, or are they speaking of doing the Phase 2B and completing that by June 2019. I don't believe it's the Phase 2B case, as I believe that would require a new IND, but I could be wrong about that.
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Has anyone seen the updated CGF166 Trial Information. Novartis confirmed verification March 21, 2017 It has New Trial Completion Date June 2019 with Primary and Secondary End Points.
Question : On what date must I own shares to be eligible for the Novartis Milestones and can I just sell the next day since I would be the name on record? The stock is currently out of synch with XON by $0.50...what's up since it has been on par.
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The GenVec annual report on form 10-K was filed yesterday March 6. It gives the numbers that relate to the contingent rights for milestone payments and royalties that GNVC holders will receive in the merger. On p. 6, payments for clinical, regulatory and sales milestones are listed, totaling $201 million. Shares outstanding on March 3 = 2,273,632 . The value per share of half the milestone money is then $44.20, if every penny of milestones would accrue within the 3-year time limit. But, there is unspecified dilution of the money for contingent rights attached to warrants, so the max milestone share is less than that $44.20. See the cover page, and pages 3 and 6 for the info used.
In terms of the milestones remaining in the Novartis partnership, in 36 months we certainly could see the $5 million for initiating the Phase 2B Trial. If approval were possible at the completion of that trial we might see a larger milestone for that, or a milestone for initiating a Phase 3 Trial.
If by chance we gained approval, I believe the majority of our 36 months will have been used up, but it's possible we could see some royalty money, and perhaps the first of the milestones for reaching some annual sales figure.
I'd put the odds of the Phase 2B at about even, but anything beyond that is probably no more likely than 10%, with approval being under 5%.
I believe we could see a little over $1 a share for the $5 million milestone, but anything more is doubtful, but should it occur, it might be a $10 to $25 million dollar milestone, so it would certainly be a nice bonus.
The thing is, if we got that bonus, the share price of XON would rise dramatically, so if you believe it will happen, it may be wise to stay in XON. I've been reading about what they're doing and they seem to have many diversely different technologies they've acquired. Just one of them hitting big could make the company, but more than one is certainly very possible. The company is almost like a mutual fund that invests in numerous diverse companies, but it seem like XON just buys what it's interested in.
The question is, does XON have the funding needed to push the development of some, or all, of the various products that GNVC has in development.
X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 2,830 NASDAQ Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is 0 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
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GNVC is currently tracking with XON fairly precisely. In general it trades for a few cents above .297 of XON as that's what the shareholders will receive when it is acquired by XON. The only way I could see it diverging in any way is if they get another offer or partnership that convinced them to cancel the currently announced deal.
I believe anyone thinking about purchasing XON is wiser to buy GNVC at any time it's just pennies above the conversion as with 36 months after the acquisition by XON for Novartis payments to be split with GNVC shareholders, I believe the odds are about even of receiving roughly $1 a share or more at some point. I frankly don't know if investors get paid when the payment occurs, or if we get the cumulative amount at the end of 36 months, but we know the milestone payment is $5 million for starting a Phase 2B. It's possible that another milestone could be achieved in 36 months time which might be substantially more than $5 million if it were either for starting a Phase 3, or even better if an NDA were filed on the strength of Phase 2B data. While I'd put the odds of something beyond the Phase 2B at no more than 10%, it could be a major bonanza should it occur.
If GNVC pulls back then it perhaps won't be a surprise given the current neutral RSI of 62.12. The opposite could happen though. check out awesom-eSTOCKS, its a pretty reliable service. of course you have to do your own due diligence, but they generally point you in the right direction.