NG will fall "bigly"; it's close to a bottom here. My m.o. for trading these juiced ETFs (UGAZ/DGAZ, JNUG/JDST, UWT/DWT, TVIX, XIV) is to look at their respective underlying tickers' charts - to discern their anticipated tops/bottoms. It's best to ONLY buy at the extremes, with the macd just starting to curve up from a flat line, but the respective underlying tickers' charts must be analysed to determine when to start to scale in. E.g., for UGAZ/DGAZ, look at UNG and $natgas (which, unfortunately, shows the day's candle only at EOD; for JNUG/JDST, look at GDXJ's chart, along with $GOLD (only EOD is available), GLD, UUP and $USD (EOD is only available); look at charts of OIL and $WTIC (EOD) for UWT/DWT.
N.B. Two rules to follow: ONLY buy a the extremes, and SCALE IN (e.g., I am 66% into DGAZ - waiting to see if natgas reaches Charles Nenner's target of 3.42 intra-day . . . but I will not wait too much longer to buy my final 35%, as the cold weather is over, and summer is a long way off to start to draw down natgas.
Who ever said trading juiced ETFs is addictive is right. Once you start trading successfully these juiced tickers, it's hard to go back to the usual high-beta tickers (e.g., FCX, CLF, TECK, WLL, CHK, REN - even high-teck biotechs like NVCR, HTGM, CBIO - which I ONLY long on HUGE pullbacks, and only short at exhaustion spikes.
The trick to trading juiced ETFs is to be disciplined re WHEN to enter, and then to ONLY SCALE IN; i.e., not to make your one and final purchase, and "hope" you got it right. No brag, just fact: This m.o. (for trading juiced ETFs) has netted me over 425% last year (doing slightly worse so far this year . . . but not by much . . . IF I get this DGAZ trade right, I'm on track to match/exceed last year's performance).
One more thing: The BEST (high-beta), most RELIABLE trade over time is SHORTING TVIX . . . on a spike, especially. Look at a chart of TVIX circa August 2015. The thing spiked about 400% in less than a week, only to give it all back within 4-5 weeks, as I recall. Then TVIX continued to fall, and fall, and fall . . . until it got so low that the trustees had to do their usual inverse split, to avoid TVIX becoming a penny stock. Calculations that I did sometime last year revealed that TVIX decays circa 12.5% PER MONTH. If you had a couple of hundred thousand dollars, you could short TVIX on a spike higher, then collect 12.5% per month . . . and cash in whenever you needed the dough, or when Mr. Market seemed too toppy (like it appear to be right now).
If you DO short TVIX, look at the VIX, but also look at the vix of the vix, which is $VVIX on StockCharts. The $VVIX confirms that the spike in the VIX is real and multi-day sustainable (to figure out when TVIX is approaching its apogee). The biggest challenge with shorting TVIX on a spike . . . is your broker finding the shares to short.
Good luck with DGAZ (natgas seems to be giving up much of its gains today).
Actually now that PB brings it up I have been marveling at the BGEIX:$GOLD ratio--there is much more strength there than even in 2001, before the surge that made up much of the '00's until the big short/fin. crisis etc.
Something very big seems to be afoot here and I go back to that new source of power I have commented about elsewhere on this island of bathering. The US dollar is inextricably tied to the whole fossilized nightmare of financing and that could quickly be brushed aside in a feel swoop. Another reason to like SJB (think fossil fuel junk) over HDGE in the next financial crisis, especially when the FED can decide at any time to buy the S&P--they won't touch the imploding junk, for certain!