What is is Incyte "Really" worth? Good question. Very different from the "price target" question analysts try to answer because it eliminates investment horizons (never stated, but always there) and questions of catalysts. In a sense, it's a takeover price question, but independent of whether there might be a takeover.
So: what's in hand? Jaka[fv]i, obviously. Please, since I was predicting peak US sales over $2bln while "respectable" people were predicting less than $1bln, allow me to move the peak above $3bln now. With all applications protected for 11 more years, and at least $1 bln going to come under new patents and other forms of extended exclusion of competition. And at least for the largest markets, the only competitor visible on the horizon is Jaka[fv]i, in combinations. Rule of thumb is that that's worth $15 bln in a takeover, but let's put it at $10 bln.
Then there's a quarter of Olumiant. Yeah, the FDA troubles. But anyone can look at the phase 3 data--the drug is too good to stop forever. Again, "respectable" estimates of sales have run around $2 bln. I can't for the life of me see how it takes less than 20% of the severe RA treatment market of about $40 bln. So that's $2bln a year for Incyte WITHOUT the overhead of selling--that makes it as good as Jakafi right there, with other potential uses still to be determined (some of them large). Call it $15 bln total value.
Can't forget epacadostat. Barring an active cod [ancient corny SF joke], substantial use against melanoma is in the bag [see how much fun it is to have no time constraint]. That is a huge market all by itself. In fact, for present purposes I'll leave out the more competitive tumor types, but just guess 50K melanoma patients at $40K. Another $2 bln sales, say $8 bln of company value.
Rather than trying to value deeper pipeline assets, I'll just point to the most efficient candidate-generating operation in the industry. That HAS to be worth at least 2/3 as much as the drugs it has generated. All adds up to $55 bln. Notice that the value rises as hot candidates come to the fore (as long as the pipeline gets replenished), and my skepticism of epac shows compared to any other valuation around (frankly, I consider my optimism about Olumiant VERY cautious)
So I get a value almost exactly twice the present market capitalization. As Morningstar puts it: "The father of value investing, Benjamin Graham, explained this concept by saying that in the short run, the market is like a voting machine--tallying up which firms are popular and unpopular. But in the long run, the market is like a weighing machine--assessing the substance of a company." This value is still a little below what I'm guessing management (and large holders) would want in a friendly deal, so again: no takeover soon.
Much of Incyte's price/share is based on the assumption that it will get bought out by Gilead. That will not happen anytime soon if at all. Slowly, its price will drop to a more reasonable level and P/E ratio. Just take a look at Tesaro as an example!
Its a 3 day weekend - all biotech's are down due to lack of volume. Enjoy your weekend, Soon we will see take-overs - stay long !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!The machines are controlling this Friday manipulation.
Incyte data to 'restore positive sentiment,' says JPMorganJPMorgan analyst Cory Kasimov believes the abstracts for epacadostat demonstrate "consistent and compelling evidence" of efficacy across multiple tumor types, consistent with what Incyte has been telling the Street. The analyst is "encouraged" by emerging data and expect it will "restore positive sentiment" in the name and add to the company's perceived strategic value. He reiterates an Overweight rating on Incyte shares with a $149 price target.
BMO Capital analyst Alex Arfaei says that "the ASCO abstracts solidify Merck's (MRK) significant leadership in the important 1L-NSCLC market." The analyst says that Incyte's (INCY) Epacadostat appears to be "adding meaningful clinical benefit to Keytruda." He believes that the data "clearly indicates" that Keytruda monotherapy should be the standard of care in about 25% of 1L-NSCLC patients.
BMO Capital sharply raised its price target from $146 to $155
Incyte price target lowered to $152 from $167 at Credit SuisseCredit Suisse analyst Alethia Young lowered her price target for Incyte to $152 from $167 due to moving from M&A base case valuation. While the analyst says it is possible that one day Incyte is bought, she thinks the company is progressing well in diversifying its pipeline base and de-risking its IDO inhibitor epacadostat. Young reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares.
More good news for keytruda:
May 23 (Reuters) – Merck & Co's immunotherapy Keytruda chalked up another approval on Tuesday as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said the cancer medicine can be used to treat children and adults who carry a specific genetic feature regardless of where the disease originated. It is the first time the agency has approved a cancer treatment based solely on a genetic biomarker. "Until now, the FDA has approved cancer treatments based on where in the body the cancer started – for example, lung or breast cancers," said Richard Pazdur, head of oncology products for the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. "We have now approved a drug based on a tumor's biomarker without regard to the tumor's original location." The accelerated approval was for solid tumor cancers not eligible for surgery or that have spread in patients identified as having a biomarker called microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) or mismatch repair deficient (dMMR). Tumors with those traits are most common in colorectal, endometrial and gastrointestinal cancers, but may also appear in cancers of the breast, prostate, bladder and thyroid gland. The approval covers patients whose cancer has progressed despite prior treatment and those who have no satisfactory alternative treatment options. It also includes patients with colorectal cancer whose disease has advanced after chemotherapy. The FDA grants accelerated approvals to drugs for serious conditions with unmet medical needs if the treatment appears to have certain effects deemed reasonably likely to predict a clinical benefit. Merck must still conduct studies to confirm the anticipated benefit. Keytruda belongs to a new class of drugs called PD-1 or PD-L1 inhibitors that help the immune system fight cancer by blocking a mechanism tumors use to evade detection. It was previously approved to treat advanced melanoma, advanced non-small cell lung cancer, head and neck cancers and classical Hodgkin lymphoma.
who stated last week we will be at $140 by end of this week? Was it you Tom? I think it was Bonk....if so we just might make it... congrats to all longs that stuck by this company the past month.
A bit of let's pretend. Let's pretend the most likely outcome of the Lilly-FDA meeting happens: they agree that as soon as some statistical analyses of the ongoing extension studies and the then-completed China-directed study are furnished, a new NDA will be accepted, with answers to certain questions carried over from the prior NDA. Maybe even the equivalent of a SPA--agreement that satisfactory results in certain defined areas will be sufficient for Olumiant approval. (I still think that the sticking point now is long-term cardiovascular risks, so 6 months of extension study stand a very good chance of being "just what the doctor ordered"). Ok--a somewhat indeterminate timetable (8-12 months) to 99.9+% chance of approval. What does the stock do?
I certainly don't expect a rapid gain as large as the loss after the CRL. I think that drop showed that even analysts who have given low sales estimates for Olumiant privately attach a decent probability to my sort of sales estimate. So it ought to generate a move comparable to what on-time approval would have generated.
Meanwhile, actual ASCO presentations will be over ty then. The value of epac ought to be a lot better-defined by then. The base the move is taking off from ought to be more stable than the level the drop happened from. It' always possible that realistic estimates of time-to-market for epac will still be clearing stars from the eyes of analysts who were initially dazzled by phase-2 results.
Gosh, this is complicated.
Do I have to say it? Knowing how intoxicated you people are and incapable of understanding the market reality, I suppose I'll have to be the responsible one and say it like it is. Remember that terrifying panic you felt when this tanked from $150 to $114? Yes, that terror. Now you remember. You have such a short memory. Did you learn your lesson about gambling on a stock with 229 P/E or are you gluttons for punishment still clinging to your delusions of a $300/share buyout, and you're going to hold till you lose everything? And please tell me you didn't buy a gambler's stock on margin. Use this opportunity to do the sane thing. Don't be the idiot crying when this hyper inflated pumper's stock tanks below $100 this year and then remembering you could have gotten out at $130.
Be rational, don't get emotionally attached to the pumper's dream because the pumpers will be the first to sell out, just like INCY's board, and they'll leave you high and dry. In this institution controlled stock, they'll smear you like a bug and rob your nest egg and not lose a wink of sleep. To the pumpers you're just a cattle to slaughter. The pump is always the sweet poison they use to chain you to a stock. Be rational. P/E 229. All the industry leaders have a P/E around 30-40. Again... be rational not emotional.
This rise in stock price brings to question whether there is information unavailable to the retail market, my guess and only a guess is we shall hear from the FDA on bari, soon
To the shorts: there's not a lot to say but BUY incyte, it's never to late!
Do not expect CEO sell out cheap. Big pharma about to make its move. Look for another 10% this week. Very dangerous stock for sure. Good luck
Herve very positive regarding Olumiant (Baricitinib) and said that probably not need more studies for Baricitinib, only give data from existing studies. Same info was submitted to European/US regulators. Still waiting from FDA demanding what they want ?
Talks about epacadostat ido....
What do you think, Doc?
Pay the piper !
Listened to the UBS conf. Some meta-substance on the ASCO presentations: data cut-off for the abstracts was October. Meeting presentations will include 3 more months of data. As you can well imagine, the presenters will have yet another 3 months or so to answer questions with. The go-ahead decisions at Merck and BMS were made with data in between abstract and meeting.
HH talked as if the methodology Incyte is using to screen drug combos is useful and non-obvious...ie, patentable. That'll be amusing to watch.
Suggestion that Lilly and FDA have had low-level conversations regarding the CRL. Unsurprising, but the substance is an obvious third rail.
Boast that epac can be dosed as high as you please without OFF-TARGET toxicity (on-target is a matter for research).
Come on Tom....we know you are monitoring this MB.... still looking for $19,$18,$17... what a moron... Remember if you need a new job...Walmart needs a person to push carts in parking lot...
I just sold some Sept 135 puts. I make money automatically as long as INCY is above 125 at expiration If they expire unexercised, that's about 25% annualized. The transaction should hit delayed screens as I post this.
" The "correct" price is way below $100. It's just a question of time." How are you benefiting by this "wisdom?" Have you ever had a position in INCY? More than likely a nuisance, nothing else. nt
Cramer has been saying for about 18 months or more to stay away from Gilead. He's been saying, they need to put their money to work to acquire something and until they do he couldn't recommend the company. In a nut shell, stay away from this value trap until further notice. I originally questioned his judgement but, he's been correct. I'd also like to point out that it's my impression that many well respected leaders of industry (Tim Cook, etc) have granted him interviews because they seem to view him as a respectable and responsible individual. If they didn't they wouldn't give him the time of day. PS.....Incyte has existing relationships with Merck and I believe other large Pharmaceutical company's. These company's have deep pockets and the inside track regarding Incyte's oncology drugs and pipeline. Given the circumstances, I find it very unlikely that Gilead would be successful in attempting to acquire Incyte. Time will tell!
135, 134, 133, 132 131, 130, 120, 110, 100, next stop is 65
alarm sounding at boiler room...down 8 cents.... Come on Nellie you are on duty!!!