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8.09+0.02 (+0.25%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
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  • can anybody explain why MBI is stuck at $8, why not at $10 or even at $20? any thoughts?
  • Walle, the reason AGO is valued at .72 of book value, and MBI is valued at .32 book value, is that while both have significant exposure to PR bonds, MBI's percentage of exposure compared to the total claims payable resources of the company is greater than that of AGO. Additionally, AGO is and has been writing new business at a greater rate than MBI. Finally, MBI still has some legacy issues relating to the structured finance policies it insured through MBIA, Corp. I, too, think the discount of MBI compared to AGO is too great, but it would appear the vast majority of the market does not agree. My investment in MBI is based on my belief that when the PR mess gets sorted out, hopefully with some semblance of respect to the law, then the uncertainty will be alleviated to the point where the valuations with respect to book value will be more in line. I could see that being worth a potential jump to $15 to $18 per share in the next few years. It could very well be more, if stock buybacks continue while MBI is stuck at .32 of book value, as those shares retired are incredibly accretive to BV.
  • Bond insurer MBIA's quarterly loss narrows
  • Think! how will you value at $8, there are lot of people buying and selling, and why the price movement is so less and options OI is very very high at $8?
    Who are the sellers and who are the buyers on daily basis, with an average daily volume of ~2M shares.
    AGO also has similar problems, but still AGO is trading at near book value.
    There aren't many posts on AGO.
    Both AGO and MBI are held mostly by institutions.
    There are lot and lot of questions and it all points to big time manipulation with MBI, IMO.
  • MBI is stuck at $8 because of the $3.6 billion in PR bonds that MBIA insures that the PR is doing its best to renege on. Additionally, there is a widespread misunderstanding that MBIA will need to pay out this money in the short term, rather than over the normal term of the bonds insured. There is also limited understanding of the strong legal ground MBIA has to its claims on the resources of the PR government. What remains uncertain is whether or not the court system will enforce the clear meaning and intent of the law, including PROMESA, or will the court use legal gymnastics to arrive at a more 'politically correct' conclusion.
  • MBI will likely be stuck around this level for the next several months. I don't see any big return to profitable numbers in the next earnings conference call, although I am optimistic that management will navigate the company to incremental improvement. The big catalyst looming in the future will be the timing of the announcement of the special dividend from National to MBIA, Inc. I hope to see this occur in late fall of this year, but it appears to largely depend on the speed of resolution of the PR mess. Since it appears likely that PR will not enter into any consensual agreements which would be acceptable to the bondholders, it then follows that each step along the way will have to be litigated, and then go through the appeals process, likely up to the Supreme Court. That would means years of litigation before resolution of the uncertainty regarding Nationals exposure to the PR bonds it insures. There should be some sense of how the process will go based on the way the judge handles the motions by the various parties involved within the next 4 or 5 months.
    If the judge expresses dissatisfaction with the fiscal plan as approved by the oversight board, and questions the assumptions therein, that could be an indication that the Title III process will not be the easy cramdown of huge bond losses the PR govt. is seeking, and a positive for MBI. If the special dividend gets approved, that would be a huge positive for MBI, as that could free up money for a new stock buyback. If the next earnings report releases news of more stock buybacks using the $44 million remaining under the old authorization, that would be an important indication of managements confidence that the worst is over and today's prices are a bargain. Finally, the whole issue of the PR bond default has certainly brought to the forefront the value of the insurance that National Public Finance sells, and quite likely could stimulate demand in the future.
  • lot of manipulation today as well. $20+ stock trading at mere $8, happens only in US markets. Time for SEC to investigate folks.
  • One day closer to the eventual resolution to the PR mess. First meeting in court today between opposing parties and judge overhearing Title III procedings. Price held up well in light of huge downward pressure on the market. I had very much hoped that this litigation could be avoided, and a resolution obtained via Title VI, but no such luck. I'm not looking forward to a long wait like happened in the litigation against Countrywide/BAC. However, I think MBI/National clearly has the plain language on their side.
    That said, in re-reading the conference call, near the end of the prepared remarks, management openly opines that a potential special dividend from National to MBIA would likely be an avenue for future share repurchases. I doubt this language would have been inserted into the prepared remarks if management did not feel somewhat confident regarding National's potential exposure to the PR debacle. I'm not sorry I own a bunch of MBI, I just wish I would have sold more (all) at $11+ and could rebuy more now. It is certainly obvious that MBI management considers $8.00 a reasonable price to buy stockl
  • I think MBI will just trudge along for the next few months. Every headline concerning Puerto Rico, and the Title III procedings will gnaw at any upward momentum. I believe that the steady downward pressure will be allieviated somewhat by stock buybacks, which I was very pleased to hear had been going on last quarter (and some this Q as well). While the PR mess will take years to untangle, I think it says quite a bit that the pace of stock buybacks picked up. The company has certainly approached the issue of buybacks cautiously, and it speaks positively of the confidence in an acceptable resolution that the company has chosen to resume the accretive stock repurchases at this time. I will not be surprised to hear at the next conference call that they have expended the remaining $44 million repurchasing stock, with another resultant increase in book value. I also note that management anticipated a dividend by National to the parent corporation, which might well portend the announcement of another (renewed) stock buyback. Last, but not least, has not the PR bond mess conclusively proven the value of insured bonds? As this story gets more play in the media, it would not surprise me to see an uptick in demand for bond insurance by wary investors. I don't think there is an easy quick gain in MBI now, but I see potential for big gains over the next few years.
  • MBI trading is simply exchanging shares between some institutional funds, while setting the options premiums and during options expiration they set the bids and asks to make all the options premiums expire worthless.
    These WS vultures have been doing this for at least last 4 to 5 years and nobody seem to be bothering, and SEC is also not taking any actions. I am sure these funds that are playing this game is reading all the posts on this board.
  • So people just like that they bought yesterday and today just like that they sell, nice manipulation.
  • There are 1000s of OI calls in the coming months, so I think MBIA will not go up until those calls expire worthless,
    Its pure cheating by WS and big institutions, pathetic.
  • Thursday, closed out my 3,000 share position/covered call and made a whopping $480. You know, I actually feel lucky. With the Puerto Ricans declaring bankruptcy and other noise, discretion was the better part of valor. In short, there are a lot of other stocks out there with a lot less risk. Best wishes to all remaining - even you goofy Walle.
  • MBI back to double digits soon, imo,
  • I don't believe that the law as currently written supports Puerto Rico's position that their current fiscal plan as proposed provides sufficient justification for stiffing the bondholders. However, despite the PR constitution, the bond contracts, the passage of PROMESA which enumerates specific requirements, and the imposition of the Federal Control Board, it appears PR government is determined to do exactly that. If the Title III proceedings in federal court devolve into a similar kind of circus, then the last resort would fall on the Supreme Court. Since Chief Justice Roberts chose the judge to oversee Title III, my feeling is that if the judge seems to lean excessively on the side of PR, then the fix is in. My concern is that if you allow PR to essentially walk away from the debt, the entire system by which state and local governments finance the vast majority of infrastructure in the USA is jeapordized.
  • Conference call today was relatively upbeat. There was acknowledgement of the ominous cloud overhanging MBI by the recent Title 3 filing by Puerto Rico, but there seemed to be an underlying optimism about the chances of the PREPA RSA being implemented by end of year. There was also a strong insinuation that any special dividend by National to MBIA parent would/could be deployed for additional share buybacks. I would anticipate by late this year there should be some additional clarity as to whether the Federal judge will be approaching the case from the perspective of enforcing the law as written or if she was selected to facilitate the process by which the PR government ignores their constitutional guarantees, contracts, and promises to behave responsibly. My thought is if RSA implemented, and special dividend is forwarded to MBIA parent, then a new share buyback could push up MBI substantially. Of course, this is dependent on the federal judge not playing along with the ridiculous assertion that every penny of PR's current budget is "essential services". While I feel this is unlikely, I never thought the Control Board would totally abrogate their responsibility, and they certainly have.
  • Sell AGO and buy MBIA, you will all thank me sooner or later.
    This will help you in losing at least 50% in AGO and gain 100% in MBIA.
  • how low is this gunna go? I might even buy in if it keeps on going.
  • Muted reaction to Title III filing today. It will stop the forward action on all the court cases filed yesterday, but also puts some of those same issues in front of a bankruptcy judge. Process will be slow going, because all issues will be piled together. I expect a multi year process at this point, with howls of rage from all parties involved. However, ultimately, I expect the bondholders, both Cofina and GO, to recover a lot more than currently offered. If not, the chair is kicked out from underneath the entire muni bond market of the USA. Can the courts afford to appease the deadbeat government in PR at the expense of the rest of the USA? I don't think so, but bondholders will still be hurt just because they have to wait for years to recover some of their investment. It's a shame, because I genuinely thought Rossello was going to attempt to cut the costs of the PR govt. Instead, he tried to stiff the BHs. Everybody loses, and the bond insurers will pay for years while it winds through court. This was not the outcome Congress wanted when they passed PROMESA. I'd love it if Congress would just repeal it, and let PR pay the price for elected decades of duplicitous politicians. USA undoubtedly will have to face the same music, eventually.
  • Time for SEC to investigate these big institutions that are playing games with MBI stock and options.
    I am going to complain today no matter what, pathetic