47.26 in March..... after approval of Ingrezza, few weeks after approval, today 5/26.. $47.16.... Happens all over Biotech.. SRPT 60 after conditional approval... now 30. I've had Nbix a long time and a fairly large position. Can't help but think of the market as a casino without the free drinks... hard to be an investor...... makes more sense to be a momentum player or flipper.
Doctor: Agree. P2 study problem is dosing issue. Not efficacy. Dosing needs tweaking. Nothing changed. Strong partnership (ABBV). Good balance sheet. Institutional support. Disruptive technology. Buy the dip. & Relax
One more quick point, the TS news was of course a disappointment, but let's not look past the potential for TD:
Approx. 500,000 sufferers of TD in the US Approx. 350,000 of these are adults Approx. 10% of these suitable for the prescription of Ingrezza (according to a few physician interviews I have read) Approx. wholesale price of $50,000 (10% discount assunption from announced $64k) Approx. peak sales $1.75 billion
We are not using outlandish assumptions here, the US opportunity alone is big. We are not even factoring in the Elagolix royalty, this could hit more than $0.5 billion, plus AbbVie does the marketing for us!
Surely an over reaction?
Even if Ingrezza is only ever approved for TD we should be pricing higher than this.
When they released that PR saying that they were going to report data at the upcoming conference, I was sure this was in the bag - I even added a little at 52. Well...market is being fairly gentle about this after hours...that's encouraging. Also, I personally believe the explanation about dosing, and that this just needs a little tinkering to get right. I was really counting on this one, though. Biotech has been rough lately.
I read that article out today - found in the summary section - and learned something I didn't know. TD is currently controlled by benzodiazapines - xanax and the like - and ever-increasing doses have to be used. That is absolutely horrible. Benzos eventually turn into a total nightmare for many people using them long term - even under the strictest supervision. I've been through it and it's awful...they seem benign at first, but when you stop you can really be in trouble. It takes a long to get over them, and it's not pretty. This makes me feel even better about being invested in NBIX - Ingrezza is a major improvement for people already suffering. I started out in biotech by investing in Gilead, and pricing controversy aside, I was proud to be investing in a company eradicating a miserable disease. This is what makes biotech great.
still short, still covering at $40. rinse and repeat. lot closer to $40 after today!
Buy on the dip. They just need a big sister to teach them PK.
I'm still waiting to buy at $25.
Insiders made their money
Anyone know if the company has previously been linked with any sort of takeover?
Has there ever been any rumours/links to acquirers floating around?
King of Kings
Houston we have a problem.
We might have green day today. Strong support around $48.
May has been a bad week for biotech, today is particularly atrocious due to politics...and we're still flirting around our 52-week high. Tourette's data is positive. I have no doubt.
Perhaps a short-term pull back is more likely before the next rally on NBIX? google aw-esomeSTOCKS - they offer pretty good trade alerrts. you dont have to trade their tickers but it definetly helps you recognize possible patterns for stocks you're trading.
How much will it pop if TS pediatric data is positive? Glta
What goes up must come down. I will buy at $25.
King of Kings
Wow, drop 8% after hour.
Politics effect, staying long, all the good news still ahead.