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Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM)


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1.80+0.05 (+2.83%)
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  • Ok,

    So I got to read the transcript. Here are my takes and highlights. Basically AF is proud of the fact they have weathered the storm and was able to take advantage and build the fleet. With BDI around 1000 ship prices are depressed and it' time to buy buy buy. Once BDI approaches 2000 ( 20 year average) then it's time to lock in contracts and create tons of cash flow, then distribute the cash.

    That is why there is no definitive time table. No one knows when BDI will return to average. could be 2 - 3 years of building the empire, or could be six months. But she made it clear, that now is still in recovery mode and still in buy buy buy mode, not pay pay pay. LOL

    So if all goes to plan. This could really turn out to be a huge investment pay off. Just goig to be a long process, so it seems.

    Thoughts?
  • So,

    I guess they have no plans of dividend reinstatement anytime soon? So then the question becomes how long to you let your money sit not earning anything. I would guess that is why people are selling today. Probably people trimming there positions to put there money to work else where. I would guess. I did not listen to call yet but that is my guess
  • Well just looking at the presentation and not listening to the call. They are not going out of business, they have really good cash flow and seem to have a lot of cash on hand. Why no dividend?
  • sounds like a good report, but all Greek to me..opinions please?
  • We passed the pivot ($1.72), buy at will. Assuming ER shows profit and paints a rosy picture (that's their job!), we'll be in an uptrend for quite some time.
  • Good to see those charters going up! http://navios-mlp.irwebpage.com/files/NMM_Q1_2017_Earnings_Presentation.pdf I just saw that those two 94/95 Panamax ships charters doubled! Looking good

  • What am I missing? Even if you discount the vessel values by 50% relative to the stated value in the prospectus, you still have $1.65/sh book value, plus whatever we have done this quarter to improve matters. For instance, we sold 2 vessels but bought 5 vessels at a discount, and we bought 14 vessels and effectively sold them for a gain. Earnings should be similar to last quarter, perhaps slightly higher, given BDIY generally moved upward over the last 15 months.
  • I've been charting the scrapping rate of dry bulk ships for the last 2 years. The scrapping rate of bulkers has dropped from 12 to 14 ships a week to 4 a week and are back on the rise (about 6 a week). There are about 160 ships on order for the next 2 years, but they scrapped 421 in 2015, 397 in 2016 and 90 this year. Also, if you consider the Stellar Daisy, Stellar Unicorn, and Stellar Queen situation, scrapping could increase. Less ships, higher shipping rates, the future looks good
  • Anyone else excited about Monday CC? How can it be bad? Outlook must be good right? I guess they could miss on earnings and that cause a crash. I do think the stock will move one way or the other pretty big.
  • I went ahead and listened to the webcast replay Q/A. I skipped the presentation because the presenter was just reading the slides and I hate that. I scrolled the webcast to 20m 45s where the questions began. Here is my paraphrasing of what they said:
    Q: how do you see BDI in '18? AF: We are still in recovery with BDI around 1000, versus 20-year average over 2000. [she believes BDI will continue up]. She pointed out the VLOC accident was a bigger deal than people realize, will help the recovery in BDI.
    Q: will NMM book everything right away? AF: Prefer longer charters and profit-sharing arrangements when available.
    Q: will NMM and 'Navios Containers' mingle ships? AF: We need to grow 'Navios Containers' first, then "you may see combination of fleet coming together". Also - the 'Navios Containers' fleet is part of the collateral for Term Loan B.
    Q: Is YanMing OK? AF: We did not have any problems with their payments [so far], but we are monitoring the situation.
    Q: What do you mean by 'development' of 'Navios Containers'? AF: The fleet was the first of multiple transactions.
    Q: Will the Navios group of companies be same in structure in 3-4 years versus today? AF: 2016 was severe and we survived and now we will thrive. The next 3-4 years the focus is delever and create cash flows. [AF also said something about a joint entity but not sure I understood]
    Q: The whole point of MLP is to pass income. Cancellation of dividend was justified at the bottom of the BDI curve, but how can you justify it now? AF: "Everybody loves distribution", but we want to do it at the right moment. We had no visibility of recovery when we canceled it, but now we have good visibility to cash flows.
    Q: Do you think early '18 will be the right time to reinstate a small distribution and grow it from there?
    AF: "You said that, but we believe as we move from acquisitions to cash flow, the natural next step is distribution"
  • SEC Filing . Here's the Filing No. 333-215529. May 12, 2017.
    $500 million Common Units; "Navios Martime Partners".
    Although some of the proceeds may be used to retire or refinance existing debt the financial direction of NMM, unfortunately, does not appear to be beneficial to most Unit holders, at least for now. .Just my take on it.
  • ER is good, +1c versus -3c expected, and finances are good. But we knew all of that. The most interesting thing to me is "Long-Term Cash Flow" shown on page 3. It says the average daily charter is $17244 in 2017, which I assume does not take into account the 5 new vessels, and $25746 for 2018. I suppose this huge jump is based on inking new charters now (while BDI is high) versus 2 years ago (2015-2016) when BDI was low? Any opinions? If we actually see $25746 average in 2018, which is 49% higher, revenue would jump >$300M for the year, EPS would be over $1/sh. They could easily pay a dividend in 2018.
  • Good News... The ships should start to arrive http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/220239/rickmers-maritime-gets-a-breather-as-noteholder-backs-down-from-injunction/

    Rickmers Maritime Gets a Breather as Noteholder Backs Down from Injunction
    worldmaritimenews.com
  • The balance sheet look way better then previous!
  • So hard to believe this stock is just crashing. All of the new income and people are bailing. Man, I thought this was a screaming buy under 2. LOL, I guess it's now a screaming buy under a dollar? #$%$ this is Frustrating.
  • is the other navios..NM..affiliated with this company? I got wrong ticker...duhhhh
  • More good news for us at NMM - http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/hyundai-merchant-marine-getting-back-on-track

    Hyundai Merchant Marine Getting Back on Track
    South Korea's Hyundai Merchant Marine is expected to turnaround its finances during the second half of next year, said the company's Chief Executive
    www.maritime-executive.com
  • no quick spike but sometimes that's better,considering eyesg this morning.
  • And another Shelf Offering Today and so the massive Debt Cycle/Dilution cycle is in spin rinse mode and will come out with freshly minted shares and a new bigger credit card balance. Everyone still think this is the most "honest" of the greek shippers or just one late to the "free money" we don't have to make a profit business model of the Greek Shipping Industry. Still owe 500+ million on the ships in stock....but a $250 million market cap company that is barely afloat with 550 million current debt needs an other 500 million. Dilution and debt, duck . AF owns no shares so I'd watch out for the reverse on this one. Seems to be the only way a Greek shipper can generate cash flow these days. Borrow and sell shares.
  • The SEC Filing May 12th is an update, not a new shelf offering. Go to the NMM IR site under SEC filings where it states this is a "rule 423(b)(3)" filing, and then look up rule 423(b)(3). This rule says the company must *update* their prospectus when there are significant changes. The "significant changes" mentioned in this particular update are the new ships they just purchased in the last couple months.