I am convinced there is someone who works in a little office on Wall St. who knows exactly my cost basis on OCLR and makes sure it always takes a dump whenever it gets to that price or whenever I buy more to average down. It is truly amazing. It happens every time. I seriously cannot believe with the progress this company has made (a lumpy China quarter notwithstanding), their solid balance sheet, impressive margins, etc., this is not solidly in the 11-12 range by now. Just so frustrating. Been trapped in this POS for months now.
I didn't much believe in stock manipulation until I owned OCLR. Every once in a while you get a week where it's on full display. From the multi-day push-down (on no news) to today's sudden rally, the bulk of which happened in less than 30 minutes (also on no news), it's clear that a few players with big $$$ make this thing do exactly what they want it to do.
Bad news is out, management is sandbagging for future upside surprises, nowhere to go but up.
Should be down another +/- 3% today.
This thing reminds me of my ex wife, good person and very volatile, but you only want her back for a night or two. Lol
I love when markets rally to new highs and optic sector is back to being dead money. I am serious about the Forbes and jay conspiracy. I knew as soon as his articles, posted, it was time to bail. I regret only selling half of aaoi. In future, I will sell and short everything. The guy is a #$%$
Is FNSR finally gonna make a move and buy OCLR over the long weekend. Exactly one ago this weekend, I was all in on CPXX. Closed at 17.50, bought for $31 by Jazz Pharma. Can lightening strike twice?
Looking back at short interest, it was 27,879,879 7/15/2016. Earnings 8/2 were $.09. Earnings for 11/1 were just a penny. So the July forecast couldn’t have been all that great but short interest fell to 7,664,176 8/15/2016 and the price climbed from $5.46 to $7.30. So what I am saying is that when you least expect it the short dudes will cover and longs will be happy they held. This is a good company with great financials. Unless Trump gets us into a war we are good to go.
B Riley Webcast - 5/24/17
1. OCLR in last quarter 78% of shipments were 100G+ - Highest dollar value 100G+ vendor 2. DCI Market growing fast - 47% CAGR growth 2016 - 2020. OCLR doing very well. 3. Metro market growth - 32% CAGR 2016 - 2020. OCLR is a leader in the Metro market. 4. China market flat through calendar 2017. Inventory correction muddies the picture of new orders. 10G products will have slower inventory cover but new OCLR products such as DCO components for Huawei do not have inventory. OCLR is assuming flat sales in China for the remainder of 2017 as a conservative assumption. 5. CFP2-ACO sales are hot and OCLR has long term orders with customers through 2019 - 2020 with fixed prices and quantities. OCLR estimates these orders are 50% of the market. The analysts asked if there is spare OCLR capacity and were told that OCLR has reserved some capacity in case their competitors continue to slip on production. 6. QSFP-28 - OCLR is ramping production and has a competitive advantage with the performance of the OCLR laser. OCLR is developing a new QSFP-56 400G product with plans for production soon. 7. Metro market in US - Verizon is a major customer for the CFP2-ACO and some new orders have been coming in from AT&T. 8. Huawei DCO product - OCLR is shipping components for the Huawei DCO module and expects a major share of this business. The OCLR CFP2-ACO should begin quantity shipments in China late in 2017. 9. OCLR growth - OCLR expects to grow revenue 20% from CY2016 - CY2017 while maintaining about 40% GM's in 2017. 10. 5G - OCLR is preparing for 5G sales in 2018 and beyond. This is a new high growth market opportunity.
Optical component vendors more profitable than service providers in 2016: LightCounting May 25, 2017 Author Stephen Hardy Editorial Director and Associate Publisher
After suffering as a punching bag for financial analysts since the optical bubble burst early this century, optical component vendors saw profits skyrocketed last year. In fact, the category as a whole was more profitable than communications service providers, according to LightCounting's new "State of the Optical Communications Industry Report." In addition to reliving last year's glory, the market research firm takes a stab in the report at predicting how long the good times will last.
The optical component niche earned its previously sorry reputation by sporting the lowest sales-weighted average profit margins within the optical communications ecosystems over the last 15 years, LightCounting remarks (see graph above). However, the fact that demand for 100 Gigabit Ethernet modules exceeded supply in 2016, which limited price reductions and the effect of competition, drove a sharp increase in profitability in 2016. For example, aggregate net income of the publicly traded optical component and module vendors LightCounting tracks transformed from a $22 million loss in 2014 and $72 million gain in 2015 to a plus $422 million in 2016. Companies such as Acacia Communications, Finisar, Lumentum, and Oclaro saw significant increases in their profit margins, LightCounting notes.
Conversely, every other segment saw their margins decline in 2016; in the case of communications service providers, that decline was sufficient to enable the optical component and module segment to surpass them in terms of profitability. With optical module and component vendors off to a slow start this year, thanks in large part to a softening in demand from customers in China, it's natural to wonder whether 2016 will be regarded as a brief ray of sunshine in the niche's generally overcast economic climate. LightCounting concedes that 2017 results won't match those of last year for component and module vendors. However, the market research firm believes that continued strong demand optics from internet content providers will take up much of the expected slack from China, which will enable companies in the space to maintain profitable status this year (see "ICP spending on Ethernet optics to double in 2017: LightCounting").
Profitability should return to an upward path in 2018, when Chinese demand should come back online, according to LightCounting analysts.
We close green today!
Optical trends - reality and rumors
As you may notice, I post information about trends in optical components and how these trends impact OCLR.
This sector is constantly churned by rumors and generally false information.
In the big picture, optical components are in a multi-year upcycle based on new technology 100G - 400G and a need by data centers and telecom carriers to upgrade the speed of their optical networks.
China has a five year plan called China Broadband 2021 investing over $150 billion in their optical network. We are in the second year of this plan and there are many phases planned including a 5G network starting in 2018.
In the second half of 2017, the China Provincial networks will start their deployments so expect news of 23 contracts being awarded soon.
OCLR has mentioned that the China data center build out will be starting in late 2017 so this is another China optical deal.
In the US, the 5G optical build out will start in 2018 with large new networks from Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint (Softbank).
OCLR is well positioned for all this new business after taking a leadership with the CFP2-ACO (200 - 250G) and announcing that the CP-8 400G module will be in production later in 2017.
Since this Yahoo board is mainly a day trader forum, expect more unfounded rumors and sudden announcement of deals over the next few years.
Listened to the FN presentation today. They basically said the timing of the China order volume increase is not known...said wait a month or two or a quarter or so to be able to tell....but it will pick back up. Take that for what its worth. Probably no huge numbers or guidance increase until another quarter or two. My guess.
I would like to see $8.88, it is my lucky number !
What makes this so interesting is that one of these run ups will be the real thing and selling at 9 - 9.5 could be missing out on what will inevitably be a $15 dollar stock. Making 80% on a stock is not easy and not for the faint of heart.
MAY 12, 2017 Forbes
Verizon Bags Straight Path, Looks For Early 5G Lead
Verizon has agreed to acquire Straight Path Communications in a $3.1 billion all-stock transaction, outbidding rival AT&T which made a $1.6 billion offer for the company last month. Verizon expects the deal to close within nine months, pending FCC approval. The acquisition will give the wireless behemoth a significant nationwide portfolio of millimeter-wave spectrum, which is viewed as important for the deployment of the next generation of wireless services. In this article, we take a look at the rationale for Verizon’s purchase and where it stands in the race to deploy 5G.
We have a price estimate of $53 for Verizon’s stock, which is about 15% ahead of the current market price.
Where U.S. Carriers Stand In Terms Of 5G
5G is a proposed telecom standard that will succeed the current 4G standards, providing wireless Internet speeds that could be as much as 40 time faster. The technology is still in its early stages, and global standards are only in the process of being finalized. Moreover, the applications and use cases that could leverage such high data speeds still remain somewhat unclear. The business model and overall financial viability of building out dense 5G networks also still need to be worked out by carriers. However, all the major U.S. carriers have been making plans to deploy 5G in some form, and Verizon was the first player to take a serious step. While the company has been field testing the technology for about a year now, it indicated that it would begin customer trials in five U.S. cities beginning in Q2, with pilots in 11 markets expected by mid-2017.
Making Verizon’s Spectrum Portfolio 5G Ready
Millimeter-wave wireless spectrum is seen as crucial to the deployment of 5G services. This spectrum has higher frequencies, allowing it to carry large amounts of data over short distances, unlike lower frequency spectrum which supports lower data rates and wider coverage. Straight Path holds a sizable amount of spectrum in the 28 GHz and 39 GHz millimeter-wave bands – which have been approved by the FCC to carry 5G wireless services. With the acquisition, Verizon is estimated to hold about 236 and 180 billion Mhz-POP in the 28 GHz and 39 GHz bands, respectively. In comparison, AT&T is estimated to hold just about 40 and 8 billion Mhz-POP, respectively, in the two bands, after factoring in its acquisition of FiberTower.
Verizon’s Recent 5G And Broadband Focused Deals
The weaker propagation characteristics of high-band spectrum call for denser infrastructure on the part of telecom companies, with a larger number of small cells and greater levels of frequency reuse, and the small cells will require carriers to have strong fiber optic networks to provide back-end connectivity to these cells. Verizon has been carrying out a series of deals to support its overall broadband and 5G deployment. In February this year, the carrier spent roughly $1.8 billion to acquire XO Communications, which has a vast fiber optic network across the U.S. The carrier also entered into three-year deal to buy at least $1.05 billion worth of optical fiber from Corning. Verizon also recently signed a $300 million contract with the Prysmian Group for fiber-optic cable.
Will we see $9 + today?
Good news from HPQ about optical component pricing