Picked the wrong day to buy into this steaming pile of turd.
miss sarepta is on sale again today after hitting the high $37+/share a few days ago from the SALT conference?
OK, I posted this earlier by it was deleted by YHOO, not me, so I'll try again.
I separated the 13F call/put from the total call/put, the difference is retail. 1st table is the absolute #s (in 00s options contracts); call/put/ratio by all then tutes(via 6 week old 13F filings), the 2nd table is the % call/put/ratio by all then tutes(via 6 week old 13F filings). The call/put is % of FloatSI(float+SI, which is my preferred way to think about its relevance NOT SO nor diluted shs). Keep in mind the RLYP date is from 6/30/16, 7 weeks before they announced their BO.
1) Despite popular belief, tutes don't have a sig amt of short shs hedged. possible via an indirect arbitrage hedge (short SRPT and long VWE for example), but not direct(call option against short shs). Example, SRPT 10.6M shorts, 3.4M tute calls(38k*100); SGYP 68M shorts, 1.8M tute calls (18k*100)
2) tutes hold virtually all of the put contracts, not retail. Perhaps this is realistic expectations, protecting their capital or expectation of them driving the price down. Example; 28k tute puts on SGYP and 34k total puts; On SRPT 19k tute puts and 20k total puts. Note AUPH 15k tute puts and 13k total puts; the tute data is 6 weeks older than call/put date, so slightly out of sync. Note also, around 1/2 the call/puts are part of a straddle, so there are x calls and x puts (roughly), so that is a different strategy, not a hedge against a short or long position.
3) I assume the tutes are the smart money(not all or course but enough to predict), and I see a distinct difference in 2 of the compared stocks. (RLYP & SRPT) vs (AUPH & SGYP). The absolute numbers mask the issue; and don't forget, all these have >20% SI. The retail are all +ve on SGYP, AUPH, but not the tutes. The tutes are +ve on RLYP and SRPT (based on the % calls) and also based on tute ownership; becoming +ve on SGYP as they continue to load up. I'm looking at the tute call/put multiplier (RLYP:1.3; SRPT:1.8 vs SGYP:0.7; AUPH:0.6) and the tute calls (RLYP:5.0%; SRPT:5.6% vs SGYP:0.7%; AUPH:2.0%).
The way I think about it, is the tutes take these near approval(AUPH) or 1st approval cos.(SGYP,SRPT,RLYP); and beat them down(via SI), then when they beat them down they accumulate by buying some calls and common; and then manipulate the buy/covers to let the SP move to its higher equilibrium after they are in position. So not until SGYP and AUPH have been accumulated, will they be allowed to sustain a rally. Once RLYP and SRPT have been accumulated and SI somewhat muted, they will be pumped or allowed to rise. Of course RLYP was bought out in the midst of the accumulation.
Below is the tutes ownership of each 4 as % of FloatSI. SRPT:77%; latest SI up slightly RLYP:63% SGYP:67%; SI dropped dramatically with latest #s, still quite high AUPH:38%;
wrt SRPT, I don't know what happens day to day, but we are very close to it being in the tute interest to let this run; they own most of float and lots of calls(7% of Float). SGYP is likely close, but the calls(0.1% of Float, also a thin market, not real liquid) have not started a sustained move up. AUPH, they have not accumulated enough common for it to be in their interest, till then its a play thing to them. I only used AUPH as it fits the mold of promising late clinical stage co. that heavily shorted All JMO
$77 by June 1.
Wake up people!
Dr Kress of Sanofi Genzyme ceases to be an independent director on the SRPT BOD effective June 6, 2017 due to a potential future conflict. Hmm. What could the conflict entail?
Down almost 20% in less than a week???
I finally put together a Python script to calc the total Yahoo calls and puts(Open Interest). To keep it simple, I only look at totals and then compare over time(months). I just got started, but thought I push out some favs. This is contracts below, so multiply by 100 to get shs.
Meidcaid cuts in Trump's budget is why SRPT is down. If his budget passes that means less money available to buy Exondys 51 and then SRPT will never be profitable. More high drama for SRPT. Place your bets.
Not sure why Fred gets all the love, I posted a while ago and since then as well that I thought we'd be around 28 at the end of May. I think I'm going to be closer
I have a question for someone smarter than I. With the severance packages kicking in beginning August 1, 2017, would that be based on closing date of any deal, or date of the deal? I'm hoping it is the closing date, thus opening up the possibility of something happening at any time.
Why is this tanking? I get there's another bio meltdown, but c'mom man
Why is the stock down on Friday?
Here comes the bounce I was talking about, its important that we close anywhere above $31.90
Stock is a clear take out candidate.
Papa Fred, where my money at? :D
Dated 5/19/17 via kare11 (MN)
A 10-month insurance fight is finally over for a Twin Cities family.
Jonah Jacobson, 17, suffers from a genetic disease called Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and he's getting weaker by the day because his family can't afford his medication. .... Jonah needs a wheelchair to get around, and he requires assistance to complete some basic tasks like brushing his teeth and going to the bathroom. .... On Wednesday night, though, his family got good news at a Department of Human Services hearing. Medicaid will pay for the medication he needs, as long as the treatment is performed in a hospital. ....
Where is the news from the company where is the CEO or are letting the price go down so they can sell serapta on the cheap and screw the longs along the way this way oversold in a short time again the share holder get the sort end of stick
I have been a long in Serepta since 1997 and believe me I have not gotten rich. It has changed a lot and Duchenne was not even discussed back then. I will never short stocks even though in the Biomed world that's where the money is made.This idea that the parents of children with Duchenne are not experts is absurd. Would I rather trust the FDA who gets extreme pressure from the insurance industry . Hell no.First of all I do not want to see a buy out. I invest in companies that I believe in. I want the FDA to get off there #$%$ and get all Exxon's. pushed through. It's safe it works let's spend the money on increasing Dystrophin production. I own the stock but I want it to become more affordable.Yes your right I am not going to get rich with this logic but I don't care.Placebos don't work for 5 years trust in the parents first the DMD experts second and the easily influenced FDA last.
Mr Shep is making libelous comments about Mrs Woodcock because they are all untrue and are maliciously defamatory.