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Tesoro Corporation (TSO)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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83.46-0.74 (-0.88%)
At close: 4:02PM EDT
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  • To all in TSO and WNR, "Have a happy and safe holiday weekend...and try to use as much gasoline as you can"
  • Waiting period for antitrust objections has expired. WNR scheduled to close June 1st.
  • Good week. West Coast refining margins improved last week. Let's hope it continues for this week.
  • Q2 west coast refining margins strong through May 22. Tracking better than last year
  • TSO beats analyst by 11 cents also beats on revenues . Huge short position got it wrong.
    We could soar on this after CC call tomorrow. I would not want to be caught short I pa little attention
    to the AH activity . SHorts gonna get toasted
  • TSO Q1 earnings were 42 cents per share – 52 cents adding back merger costs. Last year, TSO earned 57 cents but this included a LIFO adjustment charge, without which earnings would have been $1.19. Nevertheless, adjusted earnings of 52 cents handily beat expected earnings of 34 cents. Segment operating income of $317 million was spread among Refining ($34 million profit vs prior year loss), TLLP ($150 million vs 119), and Marketing ($133 million vs 227). The poor convenience store results were attributed to an abnormally rainy winter in California. The marketing segment probably did miss revenue estimates but refinery throughput was 825 thousand barrels per day, or 92% utilization, vs 782 tbpd last year.

    There were no new developments with TSO’s ongoing projects. The crude oil “rail to marine’ terminal at the Port of Vancouver, the Los Angeles refining integration and compliance project, and the Anacortes clean product upgrade project, are all still in the approval process. There were questions from analysts as to whether the rail terminal would be as beneficial as previously thought.

    The WNR closing is expected this quarter. Management is evaluating how to best handle the two MLPs. As you may be aware, Tesoro waived their IDR (incentive distribution rights) from TLLP last November for a period of 2 years. (This was $100 million or $12.5 million per quarter.) After the WNR closing, Tesoro plans to reinstate IDRs from TLLP.

    TSO plans to start selling to retail operations in northwest Mexico but this will be slow in developing. There was no meaningful discussion on RINs as management insisted that RIN prices did not impact their margins. There was turnaround activity at two locations during the quarter -- only one is planned through the summer. Management believes that TSO stock is undervalued and, after the WNR closing, will announce buyback plans.
  • TSO Q1 earnings of $.42 (GAAP) appear to have beaten analyst estimates but the people currently trading after hours don't seem to agree. CC is tomorrow morning.
  • TSO reports earnings Monday May 8 after market. Earnings are bound to be great. What could go wrong?
  • Western Refining (WNR) reported first-quarter profit of $11.6 million or 10 cents per share. Adjusted for non-recurring costs, earnings of 19 cents beat estimates of 14 cent.
  • Is TSO overvalued at current levels? if you guys have questions you should ask awe-someSTOCKS. They often respond to my emails which is helpful.
  • I don’t like that Tesoro keeps pushing back its earnings date – next is May 8th – but I guess it doesn’t matter. I don’t expect that there will be much progress in obtaining approvals for the crude oil “rail to marine’ terminal at the Port of Vancouver in Washington State. Environmental concerns continue to delay, and may eventually kill, this project.
    I expect that the Los Angeles refining integration and compliance project, joining the operations of the Carson and Wilmington refineries will eventually be approved. Long Beach mayor is trying to delay state approval for more public comment.
    The recent sale of northern California and Alaskan assets to TLLP will increase partnership earnings but have little impact on consolidated EPS.
    The new gasoline tax in California and all the uncertainty from Washington DC will remain as headwinds
    On the more positive side, the acquisition of Western Refining is approved by shareholders. I expect WNR to show good earnings on May 2nd, giving the VLO stock price a boost. WNR has 2 and a half refineries, about 430 retail stores (+114 franchised), and various logistics assets. It has been a low cost, high margin refiner – it will be a good acquisition.
    Based on the Tesoro Index, I expect refining margins to be okay but not great. MS predicts adjusted EPS of only .32 vs .03 last quarter and 1.19 last year. They maintain an “equal weight” rating and a $100 pt.
    I think there is a good chance that TSO beats expectations and surprises to the upside...but… I own the stock and usually think that. So…we wait.
  • TSO just got a major upgrade CreditSwiss 35% increase expected 110.00++ ! Its about time the WNR
    acquisition is a steel for TSO - This stock is very undervalued I think it could run further to 120.00++ by years end
    Glad too see the upgrade TSO is on foresale at this price.
  • Trend is down..this is good buy at 62
  • I think this will go back to $85-$90 after the earning.
  • Under $80 is a great price to buy
  • A poet is the painter of the soul. http://dataunion.tistory.com/11385

    Tesoro Corporation NYSE $TSO Correlation Histogram
    X axis : Stocks Price Correlation Coefficient Y axis : Quantity of stocks Sep-2016 1,000 Day Parameter 4,338 NYSE Stocks Price Analysis This stock mode of correlation coefficient is -0.8 In other words, the correlation coefficient of the other stocks
  • The Tesoro Index for Q1-2017 predicts that refining margins will be better than last quarter but only slightly better than last year. These are the indicative crack spreads for Q1-17, Q4-16, and Q1-16 respectively
    California ____12.68 __11.03___13.64
    Pacific NW ____9.72___8.87____ 8.48
    Mid Con_____13.15___11.03___10.79
    Consolidated _12.17___10.60___12.15

    Comparative margin weakness in California may explain the disappointing stock performance to date (See VLO for comparison to other refiners). The good news is that these numbers are well known to analysts and built into expectations. There are a lot of areas in refining (throughput, discounts, cost savings), retail and logistics where TSO can beat expectations......or -- I guess -- miss.
  • Looks like good entry point here. Target at stoxline: 97.06.
  • Am I the only one who gets all excited when I see a big price increase crossing the tape.....and it turns out to be the drug company, Tesaro.? I hate that.
  • I don't understand why this stock is falling so much lately. The Gas Price in CA is over $3.10 for regular and $3.3 for premium. TSO will be very good in s quarter. Knowing that, probably WS is shorting because the most small investors are long on this stock.