Eddie - you are a good follower of UBNT. You have five posts - following ShopBLT numbers. But all your posts are negative. 7 months ago you said correctly that ShopBLT had 30,000 UAP AC Pro's in stock and that this would be too many. You also said the sell in accounting revenue recognition would over benefit UBNT short term as the recognize revenue when delivered to the distributors. But without sell through UBNT hurt down the road. All negative points all pessimistic for the short case.
So what do we know now. ShopBLT cleared all 30,000 UAP AC Pro's in the month of January. That right in less than 30 days - the Pro was waitlisted.
Today ShopBLT has begun stocking the UAP AC Pro in all 5 of their warehouses and sells about 2,000 units a day. The Tennessee and Southern California use to handle all the UBNT orders but now Pennsylvania, Illinois and Texas have portions of the 33,000 units inventoried with 11,000 ordered. Every product sold by ShopBLT is now available at all 5 warehouses.
Negative posts are often filled with some basis in fact. And your following of the ShopBLT inventory shows some interest in the story. But your data should show that sell through is escalating as well as the progress the company has made filling the channel. Your post point out how easy it is to track sell through.
So instead of looking to parse the Spiceworks followers list and criticizing the sell in method of accounting. Report the significant upgrade in the UBNT/ ShopBLT partnership. Or the recent announcement of the Hummingbird distribution agreement. Both developments that show the 'trend' within the IT community is very strong.
Pera is dumping UBNT shares - OH MY!
This sucks being long with such a great company. I believe the problem is that 70% ownership so it is just Roberts show. I also believe that he probably does not mind share buy backs because his percentage goes up even more. He probably does not even mind that the share price is going lower. This sucks. He needs to decrease his position and issue a small dividend.
Robert encouraged an analyst on the last earnings call to do homework on Spiceworks. I’ve done that, and here is what I learned.
Anyone can create a Spiceworks account and log in - it is free. Spiceworks provides management tools and has also become a social network for IT managers. The company makes money through vendor advertising. Ubiquiti has a paid presence on Spiceworks and provides support for their products on the site. Many of the posts are from Ubiquiti fans, but the content is more balanced than the UBNT forum.
There are currently 159,965 Ubiquiti followers on Spiceworks. This is an increase of 229 followers since August 6, 2016. There were periods of time prior where up to 10k followers per month were added – almost certainly incented by Ubiquiti.
A good way to understand Ubiquiti customers is from the Spiceworks community survey that shows UAP-AC-PRO usage by company size: a. 68% in ‘companies’ less than 50 employees, b. 19% in companies between 51 and 250 people, c. 13% in companies between 251 and 500 people and d. 0% in companies over 500 people. [Enterprises]
Confirming the typical network size, there are currently no reviews on the site for any switches with more than 8-ports.
Worth noting is that there are 2 comments on the site for the new “enterprise” UAP-AC-HD. They are the same 2 “reviews” that Robert raved about on the Feb earnings call - but they are actually just statements of intent to use the new APs for a clubhouse and for a K-12 school.
The net is that Ubiquiti has fans on Spiceworks, but they don’t appear to be enterprise decision makers.
Robert has historically used “Enterprise” as a marketing term. He admitted as much in the Feb earnings call with his aspiration to truly compete with Meraki. The company is now making a bold push for true Enterprise customers with higher-priced products and the new ‘Elite’ program - but doing homework on Spiceworks does not build confidence that they will be successful.
My guess is that UBNT is due for a pullback in the short-run. have you guys heard of awesom-eSTOCKS. i started receiving their allerts and so far i am happy.
Significant escalation in the ShopBLT/ Ubiquiti relationship as Ingram rolls out inventory to all 5 of their warehouses. They previously carried inventory in Southern California and Tennessee.
This is why the Unifi HD has interest has gone from 1200 to 6,000 and the Unifi AC Pro from 19,999 to 35,000.
This commitment from Ingram/ShopBLT is very significant and shows that the real professional IT is adopting UBNT. That Ingram is making money with UBNT. And that UBNT is willing to work on a true partnership with this leader in IT equipment sales.
The escalation covers all areas of the UBNT business line as new listings are growing everyday.
Laiks Ziedonim 2017 tautsaimniecības nominācijas "Zemi es mācos" laureāts Kristaps Rikāns
Kristaps Rikāns – ASV uzņēmuma “Ubiquiti Networks” Latvijas filiāles “U-Labs” vadītājs no Iecavas, kurš audzis un izglītojies Latvijā, guvis pieredzi ASV, ta...
FWIW, I believe we finished the week at a post earnings high.(other than the open last Friday which lasted about 5 minutes)
Robert - Please sell a big chunk of your shares to Warren B. Then do some PR.
When he invested in Apple, shares went up by 40%. Also, this is a company that has financials that Warren would love. Plus he is sitting on $95B that he needs to find a home for it. Plus he just said the other day that he needs to relook how he looks at Tech. Plus the culture is at Berkshire investors and Berkshire companies support each other.
UBNT-SNK UBNT-SNK Ubiquiti Employee May 8 We are planning to release a beta supporting GPS Sync this month for airMAX AC and Gen 2. Initially this will be AC mode only. Mixed-mode support will follow later this year so you'll be able to sync an M-series CPE with an AC or Gen 2 AP. Initially GPS Sync will be in its own release line, 8.3.UBNT-SNK UBNT-SNK Ubiquiti Employee May 8 We are planning to release a beta supporting GPS Sync this month for airMAX AC and Gen 2. Initially this will be AC mode only. Mixed-mode support will follow later this year so you'll be able to sync an M-series CPE with an AC or Gen 2 AP. Initially GPS Sync will be in its own release line, 8.3.
This a big announcement for AirMax. GPS sink the last hurdle.
Exceed expectations and Stock goes down?
People questioning Robert on the inventory build don't have to go far to find validation of the strategy. Just read the ARStechnica article on the 8 port PoE switch from 2 years ago. Here is the author's issue: If there’s a real problem with the US-8-150W, it’s that Ubiquiti seems to have made the same kind of chronic misjudgment of demand as they did with the revised Unifi AP line. The US-8-150W is essentially impossible to find in the retail channel with any reliability. Some retailers seem to randomly receive small allocations, but if you want to pick one up, you’ll probably have to play the waiting game for several months (unless you get lucky finding a reseller with inventory). Not sure why you have to doubt Robert after reading this.
For those asking why stock is down AH. Do the math. With .77 eps this quarter, .70 next quarter (according to guidance). that gives us 1.47 per 6 months. Assuming same eps for the rest of the year, then eps of 2.94. industry standard PE multiple of 15
great work. lowball next quarter. buy back shares cheaply then beat .
Good company bad stock down 6.5% on huge selling volume when they EXCEEDED both top and bottom line numbers. No reason for it. Two quarters in a row of big sell offs. The markets are making new highs and this stock keeps dropping. I'm down over 25% on what I thought was a good investment. I don't understand what it takes to move this stock up, any answers?
I track 60 products on ShopBLT - some in each product line and some of the new one. Its an attempt to see relative strength. I started the exercise 16 months ago. I can see inventory levels, deliveries and sell through.
1. March quarter sales - $170 December quarter sales - $146
2. March quarter deliveries - $145 December quarter deliveries - $187
3. March quarter inventory - $172 December quarter inventory - $172
1. Sales are good. With thousands of transactions this shows the strength across the product line. 2. Deliveries were down. Chinese New Year, some work off of large channel fill in December may have contributed. But there was a huge delivery crush in April. Average for March quarter was (145/3 = 48.3) and ShopBLT received 86 in April. April's delivery was the largest monthly delivery in the past 7 months and close to December's 85. This shows that Robert was serious about filling the channel and having sufficient inventory. 3. The inventory level from quarter to quarter was flat - a ShopBLT decision on capital?
I don't know what the margins will be - their erosion was the key issue last quarter. But I bet they are better this quarter as Robert learned his lesson. But sales are really good.
The power of these numbers are best when taken over months and quarters. Deliveries are lumpy. Sales are impacted by short months, holidays and the weather. The trends on all fronts are simply very good.
I have written 5 articles on UBNT on Seeking Alpha. These sales trends reflect broadening product line and community adoption of their whitebox solutions.
Why is the stock down in afterours with a beat expectations on all metrics and a bullish forecast? This stock goes down no matter if the earnings report is good or bad. The market just hates this stock for some reason and the shorts seem to be driving the price.
Harry Boxer has posted his Charts of the Day video on UBNT at TheTechTrader site noting: On the downside, Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. (UBNT) formed a 3-wave coil after the big drop for a couple months. On Wednesday, it rolled over and dropped 1.02, or 2%, to 50.16, on 600,000 shares traded. If it breaks this pattern, it could drop into the low 40’s.
continued.. with PE multiple of 15, you get a share price around $44.
Basically stock is down because of q2 guidance is lower than q1.