look at those numbers and consider the fact that it is trading @ 5.5 times forward earnings. at 10 times forward earnings, a discount to the market in consideration of the cyclical nature of a commodity, and it is a 53 dollar stock. these prices are absurd. and the earnings 12 month out will be higher than presently calculated.
That sure was a great call by the Goldman analyst two weeks ago wasn't it? LOL
Ernie Maddock said that demand for nand will continue to slightly exceed supply till 2020, though of course with caveats - you can't tell in an individual quarter - but that is how it looks. By 2020 cost of SSDs will be such that desktops will be using them too, so demand is very elastic and liable to grow as they replace HDDs. Important thing is that the confidence (with caveats) is now pushed out to 2020 for NAND.
HP earnings report good for Micron, says Citi MU;HPQ - The Fly
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So now that NAND is in the bag for the next 3-4 years (imo) ..... Let's talk about 3D Cross Point. Wall Street isnt buying into this idea working out at all. Wall Street is saying this falls on its face. If (when) wall street is wrong - MU may not be a 5-6 multiple stock anymore. Even having a 10% chance of this happening is like a giant call option on the equity imo. You get that option for free by simply buying shares at todays 5x next years earnings.
Cross Point could change the way wall street looks at MU. IMO its HUGE. Its Big League even by Trumps standards. Yet the perceived value given to it by Wall Street is 0.00.
You do the math.
Thoughts on todays 5/24/17 MU - Technology Brokers Conference
"Ernie Maddock: We believe that on the DRAM side you're going to see somewhere between 15% and 20% growth in bits supplied..." AND "And then on the demand side...that you're going to have demand somewhere in the 20%-25% big-growth range, and therefore you have the setup for some stability from a pricing perspective..." "On the NAND front, we think that bits supplied will be somewhere between 35% and 40% this year...And that we think that demand is certainly meaningfully in excess of that..."
"64 layers - GEN2: Again, you've discussed meaningful bit output exiting your August quarter, if you could give us an update there? "Ernie Maddock: So we still expect that. In terms of an absolute percentage it's actually slightly higher..."
"is this is the year that we start to see Micron really move up the market share rankings on the SSD front? "Ernie Maddock: Well, if we execute successfully, yes...."
From this Conference it seems MU is firing on all cylinders and most importantly the Supply/Demand/Cost cycle will be good for MU into 2018, possibly 2020... Also that MU is well on it's way of moving from just a PC/Server supplier to IOT, Cloud, Data Center business, with special emphasis on the Auto and AI industries. As a stock holder, I'm much encouraged that MU's sp will continue to rise or at least remain stable past this next 3Q 2017 Qtr (barring the usual global calamities).
July 21st 29 calls are fairly cheap. Picked some up at $2.13 while stock was trading at $29.50. So $1.63 premium, breakeven at $31.13. Worst case, options become worthless. Best case, stock could hit $35+ and double or triple options value.
How many of you believe in Micron to hit $29 tomorrow after the speech by CFO?
GS may come out with an upgrade tomorrow : )
Desperate shorts trumping up downgrades. Just like Goldman but wasn't that about $3.00 ago. CFO is a better source of future prospects than any of the Jack Leg analysts.
It was a good call, confirming all is well. I had hoped for a bit more but I guess he can't steal Sanjay's thunder when we get to hear the new CEO speak.
Now trading above the 52 week closing high of $29.32 from May 10.
I think the downdraft last week is a distant memory...
I just listened to the WDC presentation at the JP Morgan conference, and it was encouraging for Micron (and WDC).
In particular, they expect the NAND industry to be in a "constrained supply situation through the first half of next year", which is as far as they have any visibility.
As expected WDC offers big for Tossy....and Tossy will have to take it. $18 billion. Good for MU
I'll get out at 35 not before. That's the conservative play.
$MU #Micon ....Looking at the top three suppliers, Samsung and SK Hynix saw their revenues dropped slightly in the first quarter whereas Micron’s revenue grew significantly against the seasonal headwinds by 22.3% versus last year’s fourth quarter. Nonetheless, Samsung and SK Hynix’s combined revenue market share was more than 80% in the first quarter. Altogether, the top three suppliers accounted for around 97.7% of the global market in the same period....