From The Business Insider, Feb. 10, 2010:

Joseph Stiglitz has come out defending the fiscal positions of the U.S. and UK markets and striking at the possibility that they may default.

To the idea that the US or UK could default, Stiglitz said at a speech at the London School of Economics that it is, "so absurd, it’s another reflection of the absurdities in the financial markets."

The Telegraph also reports that Stiglitz said that the U.S. ability to print money to pay off its debt made default even less likely.

Stiglitz also called for a second stimulus to provide certainty in global markets.

Late last autumn, John Roque technical analyst with WJB Capital Group, made a bold call, telling clients to sell Goldman Sachs. Soon thereafter, the stock soared to nearly $180 but has stumbled steadily since then, settling Tuesday at $152.49.

Today, there remains little reason to buy the "best of breed" financial stock, Roque tells Aaron in the accompanying clip, citing the following:

• -- Goldman’s trading below it’s 50- and 200-day moving average.
• -- The stock already had a massive bounce off the 2009 lows.
• -- Volume on the NYSE has slowed and the financial services industry is facing regulatory and political headwinds.

It's not just Goldman Sachs; Roque believes the entire financial sector will lag the rest of the market for years and fears Citigroup is on track to retest its 2009 lows below $1.

Like the semiconductor industry after the tech bubble burst, investors now need to "look for new leadership" following the recent credit-driven crash, he says.  "The repair process is often fraught with a lot of difficulty."...

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On again, off again rumors about a bailout of Greece's debt crisis dominated global markets on Tuesday.

Global stocks rallied overnight and the Dow jumped Tuesday morning on reports European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet had changed his travel plans to attend a meeting of EU officials on Thursday. Subsequent reports quoted German lawmaker saying a financial rescue plan was in the works.

The result was sharply higher prices for stocks and commodities as the euro rebounded from its recent weakness vs. the dollar.

A mid-afternoon denial by a German government spokesman, who called the earlier reports "unfounded", took some of the steam out of the euro's rally but didn't do too much damage to the stock market's advance. After trading as high as 10,139, the Dow closed up 1.5% to 10,055.

Setting aside the politics of a bailout in the Eurozone, the markets are suggesting it's too soon to hit the all-clear signal, says John Roque, technical analyst at WJB Capital Group.

"Irrespective if there is some deal...to support Greece, et al, you'd still stay there's underlying issues that have yet to be resolved," Roque says. "It might be the worst does not occur but the charts suggest it's not necessarily going to get uniquely better."

Specifically, Roque referenced the charts of...

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14.8 million Americans are currently out of work and looking for a job, according to a report released today by the Bureaus of Labor Statistics. Even if you do have a job, wages have not increased substantially over the last ten years, with one exception: government workers.

Thanks to generous health-care benefits and pensions, it pays - more than ever - to work in the public sector. Economist Gary Shilling fears dubious consequences if state and local workers continue to make more money and at the same time governments raise taxes and cut services.

"In good times, nobody really cares that much but now we’re not in good times," says the President of A. Gary Shilling & Co. "The basic problem is pay differential, as I see it, and that I think is likely to lead to a taxpayer revolt."

Late last year, very few investors other than our guest Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. were predicting big things for the U.S. dollar.

Guess what?

As is often the case when sentiment tilts too far in one direction, the dollar is enjoying a nice rally to end 2009 and start 2010, thanks in part to Euro's problem with Greek debt.

Reports of a rescue for Greece is giving the Euro a bounce today versus the dollar.  However, Shilling is not about to buy Euros; believing in tough times, investors will continue to flee to the greenback, simply because it's "the best of a bad lot."

With that in mind, Shilling is short the euro and long the dollar. As he tells Henry in this clip, dollar - euro parity is in the offing. "It will go down to one to one," he declares.

From The Business Insider, Feb. 9, 2010:

The market just made a major spike thanks to fresh rumors that the EU really is ready to help Greece in some official capacity. This is why the Athens Index spiked today, and it's obviously having an excellent effect on US markets, as the Dow is up 150.

Of course this opens up a brand new can of worms for the future of the EU, such as how to keep a country in line if it knows it will get central help. (We have that problem here, but for banks).

But for now, the market is betting the crisis will ebb.

More coverage from The Business Insider: 

• Rosenberg's 5 ways to protect your portfolio during a deflationary period
• Now meet the Greece of Asia

During the second half of 2009, there was a brief reprieve in the housing market, prompting some market watchers to declare: The worst is over! We've bottomed!

Ever the bear, our guest Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co., has a more dour outlook. 

"There is a possibility we could have a couple quarters of actual further decline in real GDP this year," Shilling tells Henry in the accompanying clip. Shilling, author of the popular "Insight" newsletter, forecasts 2% average real GDP growth over the next decade. (Gulp.)

The housing sector. Some regions, including NYC, have enjoyed a mild recovery reflecting Wall Street bonuses. But the national housing inventory overhang remains high. Shilling forecasts another 10% drop in prices and one-to-two more years before housing truly bottoms. Expect lenders to take over more properties as modifications fail, he adds.

Unemployment outlook. Think chronic. Shilling's forecast of 2% growth is below the 3.3% level needed to keep unemployment stable. On the ground level, it's taking laid off American workers longer to find new jobs and the number of jobs lost since December 2007, now estimated at 8.4 million, is about the twice the percentage drop in any previous post-World War II recession.

It's no wonder Shilling and other bears are bracing for a decline in America's standard of living.

U.S. deficit. As Washington props up jobs growth, expect deficit levels of roughly $1 trillion "for the hereafter," Shilling says.  

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Last summer, our guest Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. predicted that stocks would fall 30%. That hasn't happened yet, but the extraordinary bull run that made idiots out of many of Wall Street's greatest gurus last year has now finally reversed, and Gary is sticking by his bearish guns.

At Dow 10,000, Gary says, stocks are still priced to reflect a strong economic recovery throughout 2010 and 2011. And that's not going to happen. Consumers still account for more than 70% of the spending in the U.S. economy, and consumers are retrenching. The value of their assets has plummeted, so they're finally saving again. They're unemployed. They're tapped out. Put all that together, and consumer spending will continue to be weak, and the overall economy will only grow 2% a year.

When the market finally realizes that its dream of a v-shaped recovery is too optimistic, stocks will go lower--perhaps much lower. In fact, Gary thinks there's a 40%-50% chance they'll crash right through the bear-market lows set last spring.

So what's an investor to do?

Yahoo! CEO Carol Bartz got a chance to turn the tables Monday, sitting down in Sunnyvale with Kara Swisher, co-executive editor of All Things Digital.

Bartz and Swisher aren't strangers, but the meeting found them playing a little role reversal, with the former serving as the questioner and the latter volunteering for the hot seat. In fairness, "hot seat" might be a bit of a stretch. However, Swisher did at any rate briefly step out of her daytime role to be the initial guest at a new speaker series hosted by Yahoo! called "Outside In." (Editor's note: This post was culled from the Twitter feeds of Yahoo employees who attended the event.)

Swisher, who has been covering technology for The Wall Street Journal and its newer digital offerings since 1997, has had a front-row seat for some of the most important and impressive changes the tech landscape has ever witnessed. So when she offers her perspective on the Internet, the digital age and the media, it's worth paying attention.

Bartz opened up the Q&A by asking Swisher just how she gets so much information about what's going on behind the walls at Yahoo! Her answer? The people who talk to her care about the company.

During the course of the session, Swisher commented on a number of prominent Web properties, including and not surprisingly Yahoo!...

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From The Business Insider, Feb. 8, 2010:

The market was mixed on light volume until 3:00 PM. Then the Bears came out in full force.

The Dow ended up dropping 104 points to 9908, the first close below 10,000 since Nov. 4. The NASDAQ lost 15 and the S&P 500 lost 9.45. Among the most actively traded stocks, financials such as JPMorgan and Bank of America were weak amid ongoing concern about sovereign debt issues. Meanwhile, homebuilders such as Lennar surged after The Wall Street Journal said the industry is looking “a lot less bad.”

Commodities had a great day: Oil ended up nearly 1% at $71.89 a barrel. Gold gained $12.40 to rise to $1065.20 an ounce. Silver gained $0.24, ending at $15.07 an ounce.

Grains, Softs, and meats remain positive. Bonds, equities and energy are falling.