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"The Great Recession Is Over," But Hold the Confetti, Barry Ritholtz Says
Posted Dec 21, 2009 07:30am EST by Peter Gorenstein in Investing, Recession"It's clear the great recession is over!," says Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ and author of the Big Picture blog. The world didn't end, as many predicted late last year and early this year, and Ritholtz thinks many will be surprised by the economy in 2010.
Not because we'll see a robust recovery, rather, because we’ll see more of the same; an economy characterized by weak employment, weak housing and the continuation of what he describes as a mild recession.
As for investing in the new year, Ritholtz reminds viewers to expect the unexpected.
He's betting on a rebound for the dollar. "No one is expecting a rally in the dollar," he proclaims, and that's exactly why he "wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar rally 30-40% from here."
A stronger dollar will be a headwind for stocks and "terrible for oil, terrible for gold," he says. Ritholtz predicts gold will pull back "20-30%" next year. Unlike many of the gold bugs, he doesn't think "the world is ending" and doesn't predict any social panic that would lead to a spike in gold prices.
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