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2011 Outlook: Deflation and Dow 4200 Followed by "Wave of Refinancings"

Posted Oct 01, 2010 11:20am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

After helping corporations issue over $1 trillion of debt a record-low yields, the Fed is now turning its attention to consumers' balance sheets, says John Lekas, senior portfolio manager at Leader Capital where he runs the Leader Short-Term Bond Fund.

"They're going to continue to buy" Treasuries until the yield on the 30-year bond hits 2.75%, Lekas predicts. That, in turn, will drive 30-year fixed rate mortgages to around 3.75%, which "reloads the consumer with a 30-year stream of income," he says, estimating savings of about $400 per month for the average U.S. household.

Of course, you have to be able to get a refi, but "they're setting this thing up to get the consumer refinanced, it is a critical piece of the puzzle," he says.

The bad news is Lekas' believes this "huge wave of refinancings" will be preceded by severe deflationary pressures that will batter the economy and financial markets. Among his dire predictions:

  • -- The Dow will fall to 4200 by the middle of 2011.
  • -- The VIX will rise back into the 80-90 range.
  • -- The "real" unemployment rate (U6) will hit 24%.
  • -- Housing prices will fall another 20%

"It's all about GDP," he says. "Either incomes go up or prices go down. We're going to see a lot lower prices."

Lekas attributes the stock market's robust September rally to short covering and the "reflation" in commodity pries, which he (naturally) expects to end soon.

"We'd be taking this opportunity to get off here and move into the credit markets," the bond fund manager says. "You're taking excessive risk in the equity market."

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274 comments

  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    spencerg Wed Oct 06, 2010 03:33 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Finally sombody with a realistic outlook. I'll be ready to buy the bottom, but I am also ready to sell at the top. Time to short!
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:05 pm EDT Report Abuse
    DJ 4200 ? hmm....... I wish it will happen and have my fund ready to catch the bottom.
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    EARTH Mon Oct 04, 2010 08:30 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Well I certainly just contributed to our manufacturing......or did I? After 16 years, my Bunn coffee machine finally gave out, so I had to run to the store to buy another. Now the Bunn was invented by George Bunn in New Jersey I believe, & the company's headquarters is in Springfield, Illinois with the current CEO & president Aurthur H. Bunn. When I got my Bunn home, I noticed where it had big letters U.S.A., little letters in front of it, said , "parts assembled in". Hope I can get another 16 years from foriegn made parts, & I wonder how much an hour the assemblers make, & when those jobs will move to Mexico? SIGH....... :(
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 2 users disliked this comment
    Weird Rick Mon Oct 04, 2010 05:13 pm EDT Report Abuse
    The "Real" unemployment rate presently exceeds 25%. For all intents and purposes an individual who is presently "working" for the minimum wage cannot be considered to be "employed" by our old standards, because under those standards it was generally assumed that the worker "gained" something from his or her work, ergo, the term "gainfully employed" was used. Today, a man working for minimum wage, with one child and another on the way cannot be considered to be employed, yet Uncle Sam does when the reports are filled out. He cannot afford a new car, would never qualify to buy a house, and probably will not be opening any savings accounts in the near future. Yet, this same, "employed" individual will take advantage of food stamp programs, free medical care, and every other federally funded relief program that has been responsible for sinking the once strong "middle class" in America. Our present fiat currency is worth nada, zilch, zip, zero, nothing, and unless we find a way to grow gold, The United States is going "down the tubes." I don't know where these "tubes" are, but they sure must be big! Perhaps the Mayans did forewarn us of this impending doom by ending their Long Count calendar on the Winter Solstice of the year 2012? If you really think about it, that will be the last time we will have to listen to Obama, and employment percentages, and stock quotes. A huge burden will be lifted from our shoulders and we can all go to work for the "Golden Arches" in a new world called China!
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    Anonymous Mon Oct 04, 2010 03:55 pm EDT Report Abuse
    To David and Wolf, let me set you two straight. Unemployment is the highest it's been since the Great Depression. So tell me then, how are those out of work going to pay for things that will stimulate the economy? Banks aren't lending, and so how are businesses going to hire? You claim we are about to have an Economic Golden Age? You must be part of the plunger team.
  • 0 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    First L Mon Oct 04, 2010 02:44 pm EDT Report Abuse
    I really hope that the stock market hits 4200. That way I can buy up all the stocks for cheap with money I'm not making from a job I dont have ! :O
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this comment
    First L Mon Oct 04, 2010 02:42 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Deflationary currency crisis. End of story.
  • 2 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    First L Mon Oct 04, 2010 02:41 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Refinance the consumer. LOL. Its over.
  • A Yahoo! User
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    A Yahoo! User Mon Oct 04, 2010 02:02 pm EDT Report Abuse
    Boom!
  • 1 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this comment
    Aramis1951 Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:39 am EDT Report Abuse
    Lenin had a name for people such as this ( and the obsequious toadies who function as "hosts" of this lunacy ) : "Useful idiots."

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