Tuesday, December 22, 2009, 11:16AM ET - U.S. Markets close in 4 hours and 44 minutes.

Biotech

UPDATE: A representative of 23andMe confirmed that Mohr, Davidsow did sell its stakes, but it predated this round of funding.

It’s just weeks before the long anticipated launch of the Palm Pre, and the smart phone wars are raging. And Verizon’s recent buy-one-get-one promotion has finally given the Blackberry Curve an edge over the iPhone, according to new first quarter stats from the NPD Group.

RIM’s consumer smart phone market share increased 15% in the quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2008. Between its devices, RIM now has nearly 50% of the consumer market. Apple and Palm each declined in share by 10%. But with more big announcements coming this summer, don’t expect this to be a permanent trend. The iPhone was second to the Curve, the BlackBerry Storm came in third place, the BlackBerry Pearl in fourth and the T-Mobile G1 was in fifth place...

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Thursday's rally has the S&P 500 solidly above 875, a key level many traders have been watching. This technical "breakout" could propel the S&P toward 1000, says Todd Harrison CEO of Minyanville.com, confirming the "monster move" forecast he made here in early February.

While short-term bullish, Harrison is cautious above what lies just beyond the immediate horizon, citing the following five reasons here and in the accompanying video...

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Financials have fallen in their importance in terms of market-cap weighting in the S&P 500. But it's still fair to say: as the financials go, so goes the broader market.

That was the case during the slide from the market's peak in October 2007 and it's the case during this latest rally from the March 2009 lows.

So if financials are the market's bellwethers, what are the bellwethers for the sector itself?

John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, is using Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as "go-to items" for the sector and, by extension, the S&P 500.

Charts for both Goldman and Morgan "are concerning, as they look likely they're being turned away from downward sloping 200-day moving averages," Roque wrote earlier this week. "Selling these stocks here seems like a decent idea...especially if you were good enough to buy them in late 2008 (we were not)."

Coincidentally (or not), both Goldman and Morgan eclipsed their 200-day moving averages ($115.35 and $24.40, respectively) intraday today, but were more recently trading below them.

This is potentially an important sign, says Roque...

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23andMe is a radical startup with a bold idea: Personal genetic testing through the mail. But early on, the company made headlines in Silicon Valley for another reason: Co-founder Anne Wojcicki is married to Google founder Sergey Brin. What’s more: Google invested $3.9 million in the startup, along with Genentech, whose CEO Art Levinson sits on Google’s board.

In the final installment of our series on 23andMe, Wojcicki says the relationship has been more of a hindrance than a help. So why did she and her co-founder Linda Avey invited controversy by taking Google’s money? Their answer on the clip, plus the economics of 23andMe’s business.

Please see the other two posts in our series:

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When Anne Wojcicki and Linda Avey met, they were both working in the biopharmaceutical industry and horrified at how ineffective the modern healthcare system was. Forget the politicians, Wojcicki and Avey decided a better way to force change was to unlock the secrets of your own DNA.

Three years later, their company, 23andMe.com, gives anyone with $399 to spend a host of information about his or her genetic markers; from traits like whether you’re a natural sprinter to whether you might be at risk for Parkinson’s disease. You order the kit online, get it in the mail, spit in the cup and mail it back. A few months later, you get your results via email. It’s as easy as getting a movie from Netflix.

But the ease of the process belies the myriad of controversies awaiting 23andMe as the company goes mainstream. Among them, doctors and regulators who think the procedure should be done by a doctor, privacy advocates who worry the information could be used against you, and people who think decoding your genetics is a step too close to playing God.

I sat down with Wojcicki and Avey at their Mountain View offices to talk about these controversies and why they think literally knowing what you’re made of is a basic human right.

See the first piece in our series:

How One Family Discovered Its DNA by Mail

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Stocks jumped Thursday, pushing their winning streak to three days, the first time that's happened since late January.

The Dow rose 3.5% to 7170, while the S&P and Nasdaq each gained 4%. The S&P has now risen 11% since March 9, its best three days since November, Bloomberg reports.

Jon Najarian, co-founder of optionMONSTER.com, says the gains are likely to continue, at least in the short term for several reasons, including...

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In an effort to clean up the current mess and, more importantly, reduce odds of future crises, Ben Bernanke on Tuesday laid out a new framework for regulating financial institutions.

"We must have a strategy that regulates the financial system as a whole, in a holistic way, not just its individual components," Bernanke said in a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Bernanke's speech focused on four main elements:

  • Dealing with financial institutions that are deemed 'too big to fail,' including steps to prevent firms from getting to that point, and/or additional regulation for those that do.
  • Strengthening the financial infrastructure - "the systems, rules, and conventions that govern trading, payment, clearing, and settlement in financial markets" -- to ensure that it will perform well under stress.
  • Reviewing regulatory policies and accounting rules to ensure that they do not magnify the ups and downs in the financial system and the economy.
  • Consider the creation of so-called "super financial cop" to oversee the financial markets and monitor systemic risk, specifically.

The speech contained a lot of good elements but missed one key piece, says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group and author of The Cost of Capitalism...

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The market's tumble Thursday is being attributed to a number of fundamental developments, notably:
  • Microsoft's layoff announcement and shockingly weak second-quarter results, which were released earlier than expected.
  • Disappointing earnings and/or guidance from Sony, Nokia and eBay
  • More worries about financials following a big loss at Fifth Third and an analyst's warning about insurer Aflac's exposure to derivatives.
  • Weaker-than-expected reports on jobless claims and home construction.

But to technical analyst John Roque of Natixis Bleichroeder, the action is just confirmation of what the charts have been screaming: The trend remains "pretty nasty."

The market's inability to produce a longer-lasting rally off the November lows was disappointing, Roque says, especially given the accompanying steep drop in stocks hitting new 52-week lows after the measured hit a record in October.

Roque has a 680 target on the S&P 500 (or roughly Dow 6950) based, in part, on Yale professor Robert Shiller's P/E model, which shows P/E historically go into the single digits after peaking above 20.

Even amid all the gloom, Roque is finding some picks in biotech and education...

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The logic of investing in life-sciences startups and tech startups out of one fund has been hotly debated ever since technology became the clear sector for homerun returns. Morgenthaler Ventures, which just closed a new $400 million venture fund, has always stuck by doing both. And it’s times like these Gary Little is glad. He invests from the technology side of the house and knows just how ugly that sector is getting.

But with no IPO market, can capital-inefficient life sciences be much better? Here’s how Morgenthaler thinks it’s cracked the code.

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Now that the votes have been cast, it's time to start thinking about what stocks will fare better under an Obama presidency.

Agriculture and infrastructure stocks are best positioned to benefit from an Obama victory, says James Altucher, managing partner at Formula Capital. In addition to Obama's pledged support for ethanol and infrastructure spending, Altucher says stocks like Mosaic, Potash and KBR are "dirt cheap" after getting trashed by hedge fund-related selling in September and October.

Giving the likelihood Obama will raise taxes on dividends, the fund manager and author also recommends closed-end muni bond funds like TS&W/Claymore Tax-Advantaged Balanced Fund and BlackRock MuniYield Florida Insured Fund.

While an unrepentant bull, Alutcher is less optimistic than other pundits about prospects for biotech and healthcare stocks under an Obama administration, as discussed in the accompanying video. Off camera, he also expressed similar lukewarm views on alternative energy stocks: "The second there is an alt energy bill, oil will fall to $40 -- then we don't need it anymore," he quipped.

(Disclsoure: Altucher owns shares of Mosaic, KBR, and BlackRock MuniYield Florida Insured Fund.)

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