Rewind to Inauguration Day in January. President-elect Obama ushered in a new administration with much fanfare and hope for C-H-A-N-G-E. Now 12 months later, it's business as usual. Take a trip down memory lane as we recall some of the highlights (and lowlights) of 2009 in the accompanying clip. 

We have a problem with that!  Enormous bonus payouts for executives. Toxic, dangerous assets that remain on banks' balance sheets. The same executives running firms they took to the brink with risky investment choices. The "too big to fail" institutions took the global economy to the precipice -- but were saved with hefty rescue packages thanks to American taxpayers -- are now bigger than ever.

As summarized by one of our most popular Tech Ticker guests Howard Davidowitz, "I have a problem with that!" So do many Americans as populist outrage rises.

In fact, it's anything but business as usual for American workers who are grappling with 10% unemployment -- the highest level in 26 years -- and no guarantee the economic bottom is in place for 2010. 

While the $787 billion stimulus package has yet to filter down to local communities, it's no wonder Americans are asking: "Where's MY bailout?"...

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America continues to crawl out of recession. The U.S. economy is growing at a snails pace, 2.2% annually, while China's emerging economy is expected to grow at 8% (if you believe their government figures.)

The difference is perhaps best exemplified when comparing America's gaming paradise, Las Vegas, to China's in Macau. Room rates in Vegas remain cheap and the new mega complex, CityCenter is already offering deals to lure high-end tourists, as detailed here.

Meanwhile, Macau casino revenues rose 59% in November. In fact, their biggest problem is too much growth, says Macquarie Securities gaming analyst Joel Simkins. "In the past when Macau has seen this dramatic growth, generally speaking, Beijing has stepped in and applied a brake to the accelerator" by limiting tourist visits.

The market is so hot, most of the big U.S. casino operators are betting billions on Macau. Las Vegas Sands and Wynn Resorts recently listed their Macau businesses on the nearby Hong Kong stock exchange. Sands China has the second biggest market share there and expect revenues to top $5 billion next year.

In many ways, Macau looks a lot like Las Vegas, except it's more crowded and pollution often blocks the sun. "If you drop someone from the U.S. into Macau you wouldn't feel a whole lot different," notes Simkins.

From The Business Insider, Dec. 24, 2009:

The New York Times delivers a front-page expose on the original Goldman Sachs scandal: How the firm created derivatives (synthetic CDOs) to allow investors to bet on the housing market, sold the CDOs to clients who wanted to bet on additional housing market gains, and then went short the same CDOs because Goldman believed the housing market would crash.

The outcome, of course, was the same as it usually is: Goldman made a killing, on both the product origination fees and the proprietary bets.  Goldman's clients, meanwhile, got crushed.

One observer likens this to buying insurance on a house and then burning the house down:

“The simultaneous selling of securities to customers and shorting them because they believed they were going to default is the most cynical use of credit information that I have ever seen,” said Sylvain R. Raynes, an expert in structured finance at R & R Consulting in New York. “When you buy protection against an event that you have a hand in causing, you are buying fire insurance on someone else’s house and then committing arson.”

But is it really a scandal?

If you view Wall Street the old-fashioned way, yes: The firm sold its clients a product and then bet against it.  This allowed Goldman to make money two ways instead of just one: Product origination fees and trading profits, all at its clients' expense.

If you take a more realistic view of Wall Street, however, this is just an everyday reality.  Wall Street firms like Goldman sit between buyers and sellers, and they also buy and sell on their own behalf.  Every single transaction these firms conduct entails a conflict of interest: Everyone is always making bets, and someone is always winning and losing them.  It's just not obvious until later which party that is.

The way we suspect Goldman viewed its behavior in the housing scenario above is as follows:

• Clients are desperate for products with which to bet on the housing market

• We can help our clients by creating those products and get paid handsomely for doing so. 

• We're negative on the housing market, so we can use the products bet against the housing market.  If we're right, we'll make some money there, too.

Don't forget that the buyers of Goldman's CDOs were among the most sophisticated investors in the world.  These investors were paid to analyze the housing market and make smart investment decisions based on that analysis.  The investors did their analysis and concluded that the housing market was going to go up.  Goldman did its own analysis and came to the opposite conclusion.  But it was at least relatively a fair fight. ...

Click here for the full post.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

• Goldman blasts the NYTimes hit-job
• How Goldman screwed its clients in the housing collapse

For savvy investors, shorting the dollar and being long commodities proved to be smart strategy for most of the decade. But is this party ending as the aughts give way to the 2010s?

Commodity prices will move sideways next year, forecasts Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight. "The markets have gotten a little ahead of themselves" and prices have retreated. "But they're not going to collapse because there's still some underlying demand there," he tells Aaron and Henry.

Outlook for oil prices. For the beginning of 2010, Behravesh expects softening commodity prices, including oil. He sees crude trading in the $65/barrel range. Oil recently was trading around $76/barrel, down from $80/barrel this fall. (Oil prices had tumbled to as low as $33/barrel a year ago.) Prices should tick up as the global economy gains momentum in the second half of the year.

Go for gold and the dollar? Seemingly everyone's favorite commodity gold has also been falling, retreating recently to November lows. Behravesh thinks gold will follow the same pattern as oil...

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President Obama will be meeting with some community bankers at the White House today.  As he did last week in his meeting with Wall Street's kingpins, the President will undoubtedly encourage the community bankers to lend more.

But first, he has some explaining to do: Specifically, why the government is doing everything it can to save Wall Street but is allowing smaller banks to fail--a double-standard that is presumably forefront in the mind of most community bankers.

Beyond that elephant in the room, the meeting will be a brainstorming session designed to figure out how to persuade the banks to start lending to small businesses again.

Part of the problem is that loan demand is down.  Part of the problem is that the banks are still preserving capital to protect against losses from old loans.  And part of it is that banks can currently make enormous profits from lending risk-free to the government, so there's little incentive to take on additional risk.

The real answer of what to do about it is likely "be patient."  Our debt problem took two decades to build.  We can't "deleverage" back to normal overnight.

See Also: Consumer Debt Burden Less Crushing Than It Was A Year Ago

From The Business Insider, Dec. 22, 2009:

Heads up to Marc Faber fans: Mr. Gloom Boom Doom has given an extensive interview with the Economic Times of India, laying out some specific ideas for the coming year.

You can read a full transcript here. Among other things, he likes wheat, sugar, and natural gas, and he hates the US for all the obvious reasons

Perhaps his most surprising, uber-contrarian call is that he's bullish on... Japan! He says it's the ultimate contrarian play:

So Marc Faber what are your keen investment themes and ideas for 2010?

I avoid US government bonds I think as a contrarian you really want the contrarian play. You should buy Japanese stocks and Japanese banks this is the absolute contrarian play. Nobody is interested in Japan all the funds have withdrawn money from Japan they have given up on Japan I guarantee you the economy would not do well, forget about the economy the population is shrinking but you can have an economy that does not do well but the companies do well that is a big difference and I think the Japanese banks are very depressed. All the banks in Asia have actually recovered very strongly but not the Japanese banks so as a contrarian play I would look at that.

Full transcript >

Click here to view the 3-part interview.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

Marc Faber: Dubai was just the tip of the sovereign default iceberg

Japan's central bank last week kept interest rates steady, as the country continues to battle price declines. As the world's second-largest economy struggles against flat domestic demand, an aging population and pervasive sense of pessimism, prospects look grim for it to emerge from a 20-year economic malaise anytime soon.

"That culture of dynamism and energy in the economy, and forward looking, they don't quite have that yet," says our guest Emily Parker, senior fellow at the Asia Society.

Parker, who has written extensively about Japan and Asia for The WSJ and other publications, says Japan still faces major hurdles including:

Mounting public debt. Japan's public debt is nearing 200 percent of GDP, and room for fiscal expansion is small, as Reuters reports. The government not surprisingly is scrambling to cut spending for the next fiscal year.

Aging population. With the country's rapidly aging citizens and strict immigration policy, Japan is struggling to shift to a domestic-demand led economic expansion. "They need to shift their model from being so dependent on exports," Parker tells Aaron and Henry. But what's going to replace that export-led economic model remains unclear, she adds. "And the resistance to immigrant is very deep," with the topic not even on the table for discussion.

Finally a crisis?...

Click "more" to learn about Japan's changing relationship with China, and to embed the video.

Earlier:

Good News! America isn't following the same path as Japan, Asia expert says

Weakness among financials has given bears plenty of fodder to declare: That's it. The rally finally is over.

Don't throw in the towel, says our guest Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer at ValueWorks.  Just don't expect financial stocks to lead the next leg of the rally. "I don't think the group that gave you leadership last time is the group that's going to give you leadership next time," Lemonides tells Henry in the accompanying clip.

Sectors he's focused on include technology (such as HP), pharmaceuticals and big industrials such as Boeing, 3M and Dow Chemical. "We have money put to work in all of those places," he says.

Another key sector to watch: natural gas.  Current prices, even after a recent rally, are still more than 50% below their highs.  Lemonides thinks that's likely to change thanks to Exxon Mobil.  The oil giant recently purchased XTO Energy, placing a $31 billion bet on natural gas.  "The biggest oil company, arguably, is now switching teams and I think is going to work very hard to promote natural gas use in the United States," he says.

Click "more" to get Lemonides take on health-care legislation's effect on pharma, and what the natural gas boom could mean for domestic growth and jobs.

As the U.S. economy has retreated from the edge of a financial cliff, America's recovery repeatedly has been compared to Japan's. Both countries suffered a collapse in asset prices, followed by a government scramble for some kind of stimulus response.

Many market watchers say America is going down the same path as Japan, a frightening prospect considering Japan's economy is well into its second "lost decade".

However, "I actually don't think it's a terribly fair comparison," says our guest Emily Parker, senior fellow at the Asia Society.

Case in point, initial policy reaction in Japan. While there are plenty of critics of America's recovery and stimulus packages, Parker said Japan's response (including recapitalization of failing institutions and monetary policy) only emerged after years of "severe" inaction. The zombie "no bank will fail" concept originated in Japan, she notes.

Also crippling Japan's recovery was a false sense of recovery, as reported by some media groups at the time, says Parker, who has written extensively about Japan and China for The WSJ and other publications. Despite reports of recovery, Japanese citizens remained pessimistic about their future, she says.

Click "more" to learn about Japan's generation-old business model and what needs to change if the world's second-largest economy is finally going to get back on track.

"It's clear the great recession is over!," says Barry Ritholtz, chief executive of Fusion IQ and author of the Big Picture blog. The world didn't end, as many predicted late last year and early this year, and Ritholtz thinks many will be surprised by the economy in 2010.

Not because we'll see a robust recovery, rather, because we’ll see more of the same; an economy characterized by weak employment, weak housing and the continuation of what he describes as a mild recession.

As for investing in the new year, Ritholtz reminds viewers to expect the unexpected.